应用指数平滑法建立城市工业三废排放量预测模型

指数平滑法是常用的一种时间序列预测方法，但用于环境预测的先例则较少。本文以南通市１９８１－１９９０年工业三废排放量时间序列为例，简要介绍了该法的原理以及平滑计算、建模、预测和精度分析的过程，并对其在环境预测中的应用效果进行了探讨，结果表明，该法与目前环境预测中常用的回归法相比，具有数据来源较易，不需要特殊分布，计算简单，精度较高等明显的优点，充分显示出该法在环境预测中应用的可行性。     

VOCs气体在活性炭上的二元吸附过程研究

采用穿透曲线法研究了4种VOCs在活性炭上的的二元吸附过程。研究表明:对于甲苯-苯、甲苯-丙酮、甲苯-乙酸乙酯、苯-丙酮、丙酮-乙酸乙酯二元吸附体系,吸附过程存在置换作用,即随着高沸点组分在床层内吸附量的逐渐增加,相对挥发性大的低沸点组分重新汽化而脱附,出现高沸点组分置换低沸点组分的现象,表现为被置换组分的穿透曲线上出现峰值。之后随着高沸点组分吸附趋于饱和,置换作用停止,低沸点组分吸附也趋于平衡。但对于沸点相近的苯-乙酸乙酯二元体系,吸附过程没有明显的置换现象。吸附量的计算结果表明,有机物在二元体系中的吸附量较同等条件时的单组分吸附量均有不同程度的降低,其中被置换组分降低程度较大,但总吸附量可近似按照浓度为二元组分总浓度低沸点组分的平衡吸附量的近似法计算,平均误差为7.9%。     

三普2#地热站供热工程设计方案优化分析

通过分析地热供热的相关概念，建立了高效利用地热能源的一系列实现途径。根据工程的基础材料，从技术和经济方面对单纯地热供热方案、地热燃气调峰方案、热泵配置方案以及最终的组合方案进行了优化和调整，从而为三普2#地热井供热工程提供了优化方案，提高了该地区的地热利用率。     

A “RATIONAL” POLICY FOR THE ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRISES1

ABSTRACT: The present energy and environmental crises are due to increasing per capita demands as well as increasing populations. The role that traditional pricing policies have played in promoting these demands is discussed. The reduction or stabilizing of per capita demands is advocated through the use of Conservational Pricing mechanisms which charge higher average prices for high consumption. An example of the effect of Conservational Pricing in the water supply industry is given.     

跨世纪时期的世界矿产资源形势和我国的对策

本文研究分析了世界资源、尤其是矿产资源的供需形势,以及全球资源紧张与危机的状况和发展趋势。结合我国资源状况和国情,从经济、社会长期发展战略角度,论述了客观分析、参与研究国际及我国社会基础资源问题的重要性、紧迫性,并提出建立我国资源供需持续、稳定、协调发展的方略对策。     

PEAK PERIOD DESIGN STANDARDS FOR SMALL WESTERN U.S. WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: In order to determine design capacities for various components of municipal and rural domestic water supply systems, engineers must estimate water requirements for an entire year (water rights), for the peak season (reservoir storage), for the peak day (pump or treatment plant size), and for peak hour (pipeline sizes). Historically, per capita water use rates have varied greatly between systems, particularly in semiarid regions where outdoor demands are large. The resulting uncertainty in design capacity estimates can cause either inadequate capacities or premature investment. In order to minimize that uncertainty multiple regression and frequency analyses were made of the various water demand parameters mentioned above for 14 systems in Utah and Colorado. Specifically, demand functions are reported for average month, peak month, and peak day. Peak hour demands were also studied but are reported in a different paper. The independent variables which were significant for monthly and daily demands were price of water and an outdoor use index which includes the effect of variation in landscaped area and accounts for use of supplementary ditch or pressure irrigation systems. The demand functions were developed with data from systems varying in size from very small low density rural systems to Salt Lake City's water system. The correlation coefficients (R²) vary from 0.80 to 0.95.     

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件不完全统计分析

对1985-2005年中国城市水源地突发污染事件进行了统计分析,以从总体上揭示这些事件的发生规律及其对城市水源地和供水安全的危害.采用文献检索方法,通过对1985-2005年<中国环境报>、<人民日报>、新华网等报刊和网络的检索,从发生日期、地点、污染物种类、事件简况4个方面统计中国城市水源地突发污染事件,经整理和筛选后共列出102起.这些突发污染事件的分析结果表明:1)中国城市水源地突发污染事件总体上呈数量逐年增多,危害增大的趋势;2)化学品和污水是主要污染物;3)河道交通事故和工厂泄漏事故是主要风险源;4)突发污染事件一般都造成了比较严重的经济社会影响,但缺乏相应的应急管理机制和应急部门;5)3个典型突发污染事件造成重大经济社会损失并引发社会高度关注,凸现了构建中国城市水源地突发污染事件应急机制的重要性和迫切性.     

煤炭开采对粮食安全的影响及其对策

从开采方法、土地复垦与综合治理、经济和政策等方面采取措施,可以最大限度地减小采矿对土地资源的破坏,治理好矿区土地资源,保护好耕地,实现粮食产需总量的大体平衡。“保护粮食安全”关键是抓好耕地保护,根据可持续发展原则,综合考虑矿业经济发展与矿区生态环境保护的关系,走矿业“绿色开采”的道路,研究有利于矿区耕地保护的采矿新技术,使资源开发与耕地保护协调发展,同时还应对煤矸石和粉煤灰进行充分利用、防治水体受到污染、采用先进的土地复垦技术对土地资源的浪费和破坏进行治理,把土地复垦中的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益统一起来,为粮食生产奠定基础。     

废水污染物总量监测中采样方法的研究

通过对21家有代表性的废水污染源进行现场采样、排放曲线分析、采样频率优化的研究,确定总量监测中采样频率优化结果,为污染源总量控制监测提供技术指导。