CLIMATE FACTOR FOR SMALL-BASIN FLOOD FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: A climate factor, C_T, (T = 2–, 25-, and 100-year recurrence intervals) that delineates regional trends in small-basin flood frequency was derived using data from 71 long-term rainfall record sites. Values of C_T at these sites were developed by a regression analysis that related rainfall-runoff model estimates of T-year floods to a sample set of 50 model calibrations. C_T was regionalized via kriging to develop maps depicting its geographic variation for a large part of the United States east of the 105th meridian. Kriged estimates of C_T and basin-runoff characteristics were used to compute regionalized T-year floods for 200 small drainage basins. Observed T-year flood estimates also were developed for these sites. Regionalized floods are shown to account for a large percentage of the variability in observed flood estimates with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.89 for 2-year floods to 0.82 for 100-year floods. The relative importance of the factors comprising regionalized flood estimates is evaluated in terms of scale (size of drainage area), basin-runoff characteristics (rainfall. runoff model parameters), and climate (C_T).     

PREDICTING MEASUREMENT ERROR OF AREAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DURING EXTREME EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The areal mean precipitation (AMP) over a catchment is normally calculated using point measurements at rainfall gages. Error in AMP estimates occurs when an insufficient number of gages are used to sample precipitation which is highly variable in space. AMP error is investigated using historic, severe rainfalls with a set of hypothetical catchments and raingage networks. The potential magnitude of error is estimated for typical gage network densities and arrangements. Possible sources of error are evaluated, and a method is proposed for predicting the magnitude of error using data that are commonly available for severe, historic rainfall.     

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF LONG-TERM STREAM TEMPERATURES ON THE STEAMBOAT CREEK BASIN,OREGON: IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE AND FISH HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long-term effect of clear-cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty-year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time-series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water-temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground-water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre-1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.     

DISTRIBUTION AND GRAIN-SIZE PARTITIONING OF METALS IN BOVFOM SEDIMENTS OF AN EXPERIMENTALLY ACIDIFIED WISCONSIN LAKE1

ABSTRACT: A study of concentrations and distribution of major and trace elements in surficial bottom sediments of Little Rock Lake in northern Wisconsin included examination of spatial variation and grain-size effects. No significant differences with respect to metal distribution in sediments were observed between the two basins of the lake, despite the experimental acidification of one of the basins from pH 6.1 to 4.6. The concentrations of most elements in the lake sediments were generally similar to soil concentrations in the area and were well below sediment quality criteria. Two exceptions were lead and zinc, whose concentrations in July 1990 exceeded the criteria of 50 μg/g and 100 μg/g, respectively, in both littoral and pelagic sediments. Concentrations of some elements, particularly Cu, Pb, and Zn, increased along transects from nearshore to midlake, following a similar gradient of sedimentary organic carbon. In contrast, Mn, Fe, and alkali/alkaline-earth elements were at maximum concentrations in nearshore sediments. These elements are less likely to partition to organic particles, and their distribution is more dependent on mineralogical composition, grain size, and other factors. Element concentrations varied among different sediment grain-size fractions, although a simple inverse relation to grain size was not observed. Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn were more concentrated in a grain-size range 20–60 tm than in either the very fine or the coarse fractions, possibly because of the aggregation of smaller particles cemented together by organic and Fe/Mn hydrous-oxide coatings.     

ATRAZINE IN SPRING RUNOFF AS RELATED TO ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING EBRASKA, 19921

ABSTRACT: A synoptic sampling of five surface-water sites in central Nebraska was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of its National Water-Quality Assessment Program during storm runoff in May 1992 to relate transport, yields, and concentrations of atrazine to environmental setting. Atrazine was the most extensively applied pesticide in the study unit. Atrazine transport was related to the size of contributing drainage area, quantity of atrazine applied, amount of precipitation, and volume of stream-flow. Estimated yields and mean concentrations of atrazine were related to the percentage of cropland in a drainage area. The largest estimated yields and mean concentrations of atrazine in surface water were associated from drainage areas with the highest percentage of cropland, and the smallest was associated with the smallest amount of cropland. Atrazine concentrations increased as streamflow increased but decreased at or near the time of peak streamflows, perhaps due to dilution. Atrazine concentrations then increased and remained elevated far into the stream recession. Atrazine is a regulated contaminant in finished public-water supplies. Large concentrations of atrazine could affect the management of public-water supplies because atrazine remains in solution in contrast to many other pesticides that are more easily removed.     

THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

LONG-TERM PATTERNS OF WATER QUALITY IN A MANAGED WATERSHED IN OREGON: 1. SUSPENDED SEDIMENT1

The cumulative effects of forest management activities on water quality at a downstream point were monitored from 1972-1980 during development of a watershed for timber resources. Suspended sediment concentration and turbidity were measured at two hydrologic stations which bracketed a 10-km reach of the Middle Santiam River in the Western Cascades of Oregon as it flowed through an 8000-ha block of intensively managed forest land. Slope failures often accompany road building and harvesting in steep forested watersheds and pose the most serious threat to water quality. Although 180 km of road were constructed and 3400 ha of old-growth forests were harvested from slopes averaging over 60 percent, long-term changes in sediment yields remained undetectable during the period of measurement. The geologic characteristics of the basin and the road construction and maintenance techniques as prescribed by Oregon's forest practice regulations helped to minimize the occurrence of slope failures so that long-term changes in suspended sediment export rates did not occur. Throughout the nine-year measurement period, seven slope failures which added sediment directly to streams produced measurable short-term responses at the downstream sampling location, but these erosion events were too small and too infrequent to produce long-term changes in sediment yield from the watershed.     

COMPUTATION OF UNSTEADY FLOWS IN THE ALABAMA RIVER1

ABSTRACT: An application is described of the branch-network flow model, BRANCH, to the upper Alabama River system in central Alabama. The model is used to simulate one-dimensional unsteady flows and water surface elevations in approximately 60 river miles of the Alabama River system. Preliminary calibration was made using 72 hours of observed data. Simulated discharges are about 10 percent lower than observed discharges at higher discharge rates and computed flows lag observed flows by about 30 minutes.     

DRY STREAM REACHES IN CARBONATE TERRANES: SURFACE INDICATORS OF GROUND-WATER RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: The method of identifying dry stream reaches in carbonate terrane as surface indicators of potential ground-water reservoirs offers a valuable exploration technique that is more rapid and less expensive than traditional exploration methods involving random test drilling. In areas where dry stream reaches occur, subsurface drainage successfully competes with surface drainage, and sheet-like dissolution openings have developed parallel to bedding creating the ground-water reservoir. The occurrence and hydraulic characteristics of such reservoirs are highly variable, as attested to by the wide range of well yields. Union Hollow in south-central Tennessee is the setting for a case study that illustrates the application of the dry stream reach technique. In this technique, dry stream reach identification is based on two types of readily acquired information: (1) remotely sensed black and white infrared aerial photography; and (2) surface reconnaissance of stream channel characteristics. Test drilling in Union Hollow subsequent to identification of the dry reach proved that a localized ground-water reservoir was present.     

CAUSES OF PEAK FLOWS IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Both catchment experiments and a review of hydrologic processes suggest a varying effect of forest harvest on the magnitude of peak flows according to the cause of those peak flows. In northwestern Montana and Northeastern Idaho, annual maximum flows can result from spring snowmelt, rain, mid-winter rain-on-snow, or rain-on-spring-snowmelt. Meteorologic and physical data were used to determine the cause of annual maximum flows in six basins which had the necessary data and were smaller than 150 mi². Rain-on-spring-snowmelt was the most frequent cause of annual maximum flows in all six basins, although there was a strong gradient in the magnitude and cause of peak flows from southwest to northeast. Less frequent mid-winter rain-on-snow events caused the largest flows on record in four basins. Mid-winter rain-on-snow should be distinguished from rain-on-spring-snowmelt because of differences in seasonal timing, the relative contributions of rain vs. snowmelt, and the projected effects of forest harvest. The effects of mixed flood populations on the flood-frequency curve varied from basin to basin. Annual maximum daily flows could not be reliably predicted from rainfall and snowmelt data.