关于中国农村剩余劳动力数量的估计

本文结合中国农业生产实际，运用农业技术需求法估算了相关年份第一产业劳动力投入量，在此基础上结合第5次人口普查和第一次农业普查资料，估算了中国农村劳动力二、三产业就业量及剩余劳动力数量，并据此提出了相关政策建议。     

论环境共同侵权行为的民事责任

随着现代工业的发展,由环境共同侵权行为所致的环境污染与生态破坏已成为突出问题,并日趋严重.本文针对环境共同侵权行为的民事责任的概念、特征、成立要件和责任承担形式进行阐述.     

新式十字轴径向挤压模具

此文提出了一种新式的十字轴径向挤压模具,此模具动作平稳可靠,生产率高,模具寿命较长,稍加改进后,此模具可适用于各种枝状件径向冷挤压或热锻.     

论自然保护区的共同管理

自然保护区是我国可持续发展的重要事业之一,近几年来发展迅猛,取得了丰硕成果.但是,自然保护区的建设和管理还处在初级阶段,存在许多困难和问题.本文分析了自然保护区管理上存在的困难和问题,探讨了如何实施共同管理,旨在为自然保护区建设和管理提供现实依据.     

Cu2+、Zn2+和Cd2+对蟾蜍蝌蚪的联合毒性

以蟾蜍蝌蚪为试验材料,采用联合指数相加法,研究了重金属铜(Cu)、锌(Zn)和镉(Cd)离子对蟾蜍蝌蚪的急性毒性和联合毒性效应.结果表明,Cu2 、Zn2 和Cd2 对蟾蜍蝌蚪的毒性顺序为Cu2 >Cd2 >Zn2 ,48 h的半致死浓度LC50分别为0.514、9.224、33.56 mg L-1;96 h的半致死浓度LC50分别为0.288、8.142、30.76 mg L-1.联合毒性试验结果表明,Cu2 与Zn2 及Zn2 与Cd2 共存时的联合毒性为拮抗作用;Cu2 与Cd2 共存时的联合毒性为毒性剧增的协同作用;Cu2 、Zn2 与Cd2 三者联合时的毒性为协同作用.表6参18     

Understanding traffic crash under-reporting: Linking police and medical records to individual and crash characteristics

Objective: This study aligns to the body of research dedicated to estimating the underreporting of road crash injuries and adds the perspective of understanding individual and crash factors contributing to the decision to report a crash to the police, the hospital, or both.

Method: This study focuses on road crash injuries that occurred in the province of Funen, Denmark, between 2003 and 2007 and were registered in the police, the hospital, or both authorities. Underreporting rates are computed with the capture–recapture method, and the probability for road crash injuries in police records to appear in hospital records (and vice versa) is estimated with joint binary logit models.

Results: The capture–recapture analysis shows high underreporting rates of road crash injuries in Denmark and the growth of underreporting not only with the decrease in injury severity but also with the involvement of cyclists (reporting rates of about 14% for serious injuries and 7% for slight injuries) and motorcyclists (reporting rates of about 35% for serious injuries and 10% for slight injuries). Model estimates show that the likelihood of appearing in both data sets is positively related to helmet and seat belt use, number of motor vehicles involved, alcohol involvement, higher speed limit, and females being injured.

Conclusions: This study adds significantly to the literature about underreporting by recognizing that understanding the heterogeneity in the reporting rate of road crashes may lead to devising policy measures aimed at increasing the reporting rate by targeting specific road user groups (e.g., males, young road users) or specific situational factors (e.g., slight injuries, arm injuries, leg injuries, weekend).     

两起钢丝绳芯输送带断裂事故的分析及对策

通过两起钢绳芯胶带断裂事故的分析,提出了具体和有效的对策措施。     

中国种植业碳汇盈余动态变化及地区差异分析——基于31个省(市、区)2000—2012年的面板数据

在科学测算31个省(市、区)2000—2012年种植业碳汇盈余量的基础上,利用基尼系数系统考察了其地区差距及动态演变特征。研究结论揭示:1)中国种植业碳汇盈余量呈现较为明显的空间差异性。基于总量变化趋势的不同可将31个地区划分为"持续增长型"、"波动增长型"、"波动下降型"与"持续下降型"等4类地区。16个地区种植业碳汇水平得到提升但增幅差异较大;余下15个地区则处于下降态势。2)基尼系数测算结果表明,中国种植业碳汇盈余的地区差距在样本考察期内虽存在一定的年际起伏,但总体处于逐步扩大趋势。从三大区域来看,东部地区差距变化幅度居中,经历了差距缩小期、波动扩大期和波动平稳期等变化阶段;中部地区差距变化幅度最大,其绝对差距也高于东、西部地区,经历了差距持续扩大期、波动平稳期、波动缩小期与小幅扩大期等变化阶段;西部地区差距变化幅度最小,经历了"扩大"与"缩小"的循环演变。     

北京市污水处理厂出水中雌二醇的概率生态风险评价

随着北京市再生水补给河湖规模扩大,污水处理厂出水中雌激素活性物质引起的受纳水体生态风险日益受到关注。以雌二醇为例,利用物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)模型和联合概率曲线(joint probability curve,JPC)方法开展北京市污水处理厂出水的概率生态风险评价研究。通过文献调研整理了北京市约430个物种,利用美国环境保护署ECOTOX数据库获取了其中7个物种的雌二醇毒性数据,构建了正态分布、对数正态分布、Logistic分布、对数Logistic分布、Weibull分布、Burr III型分布和Gumbel分布等7个SSD模型,评价了北京市污水处理厂二沉池出水以及"混凝-沉淀-过滤-臭氧"、"超滤-臭氧"和"超滤-活性炭-臭氧"3种深度处理工艺组合出水的生态风险。结果表明,利用北京市7个物种雌二醇毒性数据构建的SSD模型具有合理性,SSD模型选择对生态风险评价结果的影响较大,对数正态分布、对数Logistic分布、Weibull分布和Burr III型均是可接受的SSD模型,其中拟合效果最佳的Burr III型分布模型给出了最保守的风险估计。Burr III型分布模型的模拟结果显示,北京市污水处理厂二沉池出水以及3种深度处理工艺组合出水的总体风险期望值分别为0.070、0.040、0.036和0.026,该结果可以为北京市未来水生态保护目标的设定以及污水处理工艺的升级改造提供决策参考。     

Changes in nitrogen budget and potential risk to the environment over 20 years(1990–2010) in the agroecosystems of the Haihe Basin,China

The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output,surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields.Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010,partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk,decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields.