郑州市公交车队电动化减污降碳环境效益

公交车队电动化是道路交通部门实现减污降碳的重要手段,评估当前公交车队电动化减排成效,对推进大中型城市公交全面电动化具有重要参考意义.基于燃料生命周期法分析了郑州市公交车队电动化前后CO₂和污染物排放特征,并评估了不同电动化情景下的车队排放.结果表明,本轮电动化使公交车队燃料生命周期内CO₂和PM_2.5排放量分别增长32.6%和42.6%,CO、NO_x和VOC排放量下降了28%,34%和25%.优化发电结构对于电动化过程中的CO₂及PM_2.5减排尤为重要,在全面电动化和发电结构优化的最佳情景下,CO₂、CO、NO_x、VOC和PM_2.5减排可达38.7%、80.1%、84.4%、92.2%、30.2%.在全面电动化进程中,应优先对中长里程线路车辆进行电动化替换,此外,插电混动天然气车型的纯电动化替换对减排利弊兼有,同步推进车队替换和电力结构调整进程才能实现减污降碳协同增效.     

西藏地区水电开发的低碳效益评价

论文针对西藏水电开发及外送在我国优化能源资源配置、调整能源结构和控制CO₂排放中的重要地位,综合考虑受电区火力发电的供电煤耗、CO₂排放水平及其动态变化,开展西藏地区水电开发的化石燃料替代、CO₂减排等低碳效益评价。结果表明：1）2006—2012年西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代效应和CO₂减排效应变化具有明显的波动性;2）不同技术水平下西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代效应存在明显差异,华中电网技术水平下西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代量最大,西北、西藏电网技术水平下次之,全国电网技术水平下最小;3）不同排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排效应也存在明显差异,西藏电网排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排量最大,西北、华中电网排放水平下次之;4）西藏水电未来开发的化石燃料替代潜力和CO₂减排潜力突出,2030年西藏水电开发的化石燃料替代量超过2012年西北电网5省区火电燃料消耗总量的75%;与其他排放水平相比,2030年华中电网排放水平下西藏水电开发的CO₂减排量相对较小,但仍然超过2013年阿根廷、巴基斯坦、越南等国能源消费的CO₂排放量。因此,西藏水电开发及外送对于我国推动能源结构低碳化、实现2030年应对气候变化国家自主行动目标等具有重要意义。     

建构筑物周边爆破施工安全控制距离及分析方法研究

为研究在居民区附近开展大面积爆破施工的安全可行性以及安全控制距离标准,采用数值模拟方法,分析了地铁车辆段爆破施工对周边高压线及居民楼的影响,根据分析结果,给出了安全控制距离及关键控制指标,说明采用数值模拟的方法适用于类似工况的可行性。另外,研究发现,在居民楼附近进行地铁车辆段爆破施工风险较高,建议在距建构筑物100 m范围内采用静态爆破或机械开挖的方式进行施工。     

基于小波神经网络的地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型研究

以吉林西部为研究区,建立地下水流数值模拟模型,分别应用蒙特卡罗方法和拉丁超立方方法在研究区10个县(市)开采量的可行范围内进行采样,经对比选择拉丁超立方抽样结果得到输入(开采量)—输出(水位降深)数据集,建立小波神经网络模型作为地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型,而后对替代模型有效性作误差分析,并与多元非线性回归替代模型进行对比.结果显示,2种替代模型在功能上都能逼近地下水流数值模拟模型,但小波神经网络模型得到的水位降深均值和水位降深剩余标准差与模拟模型计算结果的相对误差分别低于多元非线性回归模型76%和45%,说明小波神经网络模型更适合作为地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型,这为减少优化模型求解过程中直接调用模拟模型所造成的计算负荷提供了一种有效的替代方法.     

森林地表可燃物含水率与海拔关系研究

大兴安岭天然林保护工程重点区域,也是森林火灾频发的重灾区。收集测定了177组森林地表可燃物含水率数据,整理成列联表,进行列联表分析。结果表明,所研究区域的森林地表可燃物在低海拔含水率较高,随着海拔的升高,含水率呈现明显的降低趋势。研究结果可为进一步建立更加精确的大兴安岭林区森林地表可燃物含水率预测模型提供理论基础,对于该林区火灾预防工作意义重大。     

民用燃料燃烧排放PM2.5和PM10中碳组分排放因子对比

在实验室中模拟民用燃料在家庭炉灶中的燃烧,应用稀释通道系统采集颗粒物,获得玉米秸秆、薪柴、蜂窝煤和块煤四种常用民用燃料燃烧排放PM10,PM2.5及载带碳组分的排放因子.结果表明,民用燃料燃烧排放的颗粒物以细颗粒为主, PM2.5占PM10的70%~90%.颗粒物排放因子最大的为块煤,其PM2.5和PM10的排放因子分别为9.837和11.929g/kg,分别是蜂窝煤的12.6和13.7倍;玉米秸秆和薪柴PM2.5和PM10的排放因子稍低于块煤,为7.359~10.444g/kg.4种燃料燃烧OC排放因子块煤最高,其在PM2.5和PM10中分别为5.29和5.19g/kg.薪柴燃烧EC的排放因子最高,其在PM2.5和PM10 中的排放因子分别为1.065和1.126g/kg.块煤两种粒径上EC的排放因子略低于薪柴.蜂窝煤EC的排放因子最低,比薪柴低300倍左右,玉米秸秆EC的排放因子也要比薪柴低10倍左右.碳组分是块煤,秸秆,薪柴排放颗粒物的主要成分,其含量在40%~60%之间,该值比蜂窝煤高3倍.四种燃料对应的OC/EC比值差异很大,薪柴和块煤燃烧排放颗粒该值为3~6,秸秆和蜂窝煤燃烧排放颗粒其值高达30~50.     

基于油耗调查的2010年天津市农业机械排放研究

通过问卷调查,采用基于燃油消耗量的方法估算出天津市2010年农业机械氮氧化物(NOx)和颗粒物(PM)的总排放量.2010年天津市农业机械总保有量为57.5万台,其中种植业机械最大约占52.5%;总动力为588万kW,运输机械占比最大为47.3%.估算出2010年天津市农业机械总油耗(主要为柴油)为6.7万t,其中运输机械耗油量为4.5万t.再根据燃油消耗量估算了天津2010年农业机械污染物排放量,NOx和PM年排放量分别为3470t和303t.     

Carbon abatement in the fuel market with biofuels: Implications for second best policies

A carbon tax on fuel would penalize carbon intensive fuels like gasoline and shift fuel consumption to less carbon intensive alternatives like biofuels. Since biofuel production competes for land with agricultural production, a carbon tax could increase land rents and raise food prices. This paper analyzes the welfare effect of a carbon tax on fuel consisting of gasoline and biofuel in the presence of a labor tax, with and without a biofuel subsidy. The market impacts of a carbon tax are also compared with that of a subsidy. Findings show that if a carbon tax increases biofuel demand, the tax interaction effect due to higher fuel prices is exacerbated by higher land rent and food prices and greater erosion of the carbon tax base. Thus, the second best optimal carbon tax for fuel is lower with biofuel in the fuel mix, especially if biofuel is subsidized.     

Particulate and semivolatile associated aliphatic hydrocarbon exhaust emission from heavy duty diesel vehicles

The exhaust emissions from two heavy duty diesel vehicles running on eight different fuel compositions were investigated regarding their content of high molecular weight (≥ C₁₂) aliphatic/ olefinic hydrocarbons. It was concluded that the emitted amount of semi‐volatile associated aliphatic hydrocarbons (range C₁₂‐C₂₂) depend on the fuel used in the engines and that these emissions mainly consisted of uncombusted fuel components. It was also found that uncombusted engine lubrication oil was the main constituent of the emitted particulate associated aliphatic hydrocarbons (C₁₇‐C₄₀). These constituted between 58% and 95% of the total emissions of the high molecular weight aliphatic compounds. Emission factors for the total of high molecular aliphatic hydrocarbons (C₁₂‐C₄₀) were demonstrated to be in the range of 15–100 mg/km. Some individual aliphatic hydrocarbons with cocarcinogenic effects were identified and quantified in both particulate and semi‐volatile phases of the exhaust. Multivariate data analysis was used to investigate the relationship between fuel parameters and emission of semi‐volatile aliphatic emission.     

Build it,but will they come? Evidence from consumer choice between gasoline and sugarcane ethanol

How consumers might switch from gasoline and diesel to alternative energy sources is not known, since the availability of alternatives is currently very limited. To bridge this gap, we exploit exogenous variation in ethanol prices at Brazil's pumps and uncover substantial consumer heterogeneity in the choice between long-established gasoline and an alternative that is similarly available and usable: sugarcane ethanol. We observe roughly 20% of flexible-fuel motorists choosing gasoline when gasoline is priced 20% above ethanol in energy-adjusted terms ($/mile) and, similarly, 20% of motorists choosing ethanol when ethanol is priced 20% above gasoline. We use transaction-level data to explore “non-price” characteristics which differentiate the two goods in the minds of different groups of consumers. Our findings suggest—and a counterfactual illustrates—that switching away from gasoline en masse, should this be desired, would require considerable price discounts to boost voluntary adoption, in the US and elsewhere.