四川水资源可持续利用与水质保护研究

四川水资源以河川径流为主，可利用率不高；水资源时空分布不均，径流的地区差异大；水能丰富，开发条件优越。水质污染日趋严重。在分析水质现状的基础上，针对水资源利用中存在的主要问题，提出了水资源可持续利用与水质保护的相应措施：以大型骨干水利工程建设为重点，改善水资源的时空分布；把建设全国能源基地与实现地方电气化相结合，因地制宜开发水能资源；以生态环境工程建设推动水质保护和水土保持；开源与节流并重，加强水资源的综合利用。     

Ethics of Sustainable Development – a Study of Swedish Regulations for Genetically Modified Organisms

In spite of stricter provisions inthe new EU directive on deliberate release ofgenetically modified organisms (GMOs), criticsstill advocate a moratorium on permits forcultivation of GMOs. However, in an attempt tomeet concerns raised by the public, thedirective explicitly gives Member States thepossibility to take into consideration ethicalaspects of GMOs in the decision-making. Thisarticle investigates the potential effects ofsuch formulation by means of an empiricalanalysis of experiences gained the last yearsfrom similar Swedish regulations for GMOs,aiming at promoting sustainable development.The faulty implementation shown in the Swedishcase indicates that legal stipulations forethics as such have limited importance. It issuggested that public participation is animportant factor for successful implementationof the ethics of sustainable development.     

Closing the open sea: Development of fishery management in four Icelandic fisheries

The article outlines the development of Iceland's fishery rights and the extension of its territorial waters between the 1950s and the mid‐1970s, whereby Iceland gained exclusive control and use of the marine resources of the waters within 12, later 50, and ultimately 200 nautical miles around the island. The article concentrates on four of Iceland's main fisheries: shrimp, herring, capelin and cod. These four fisheries are discussed separately and in depth, presenting the beginnings and growth of the industry and detailing the development of management practices and the corresponding legislation and regulatory measures. Iceland's initial concern was to gain control over the marine resources surrounding the island, but once this was achieved, the focus of attention shifted to managing first the economic and soon also the ecological aspects of its tremendous resource. Informed mainly by indigenous expertise, Iceland's concern was to limit overfishing, manage its fisheries sustainably both from the economic and ecological points of view, and find the best ways to distribute the revenues from the marine harvest. The article looks at each of the four fisheries to clarify how the individual transferable quota (ITQ) system came into being, how initial quota holdings were allotted, and analyses the circumstances under which the ITQ system became the management tool of choice. For each fishery, the process of regulatory evolution was quite unique. At the same time, there is a common pattern to all the fisheries, which may be summarized as follows. Firstly, serious attempts to reform management practices only got underway when the fishery had collapsed or was close to collapse. Secondly, stakeholders invariably started the process of regulation by limiting access to the fishery. Thirdly, a variety of rules were implemented to allocate rights to participate in the fishery to additional entrants once membership had been closed. Finally, prior to the invention of the ITQ system, prices were used to manage fisheries in Iceland. It may be concluded that the management of fisheries by ITQs may be a historical accident, rather than the end point of a logical evolution.     

NUTRIENT LOADING ASSESSMENT IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER USING A SYNTHETIC APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A synthetic relationship is developed between nutrient concentrations and discharge rates at two river gauging sites in the Illinois River Basin. Analysis is performed on data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on nutrients in 1990 through 1997 and 1999 and on discharge rates in 1988 through 1997 and 1999. The Illinois River Basin is in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma and is designated as an Oklahoma Scenic River. Consistently high nutrient concentrations in the river and receiving water bodies conflict with recreational water use, leading to intense stakeholder debate on how best to manage water quality. Results show that the majority of annual phosphorus (P) loading is transported by direct runoff, with high concentrations transported by high discharge rates and low concentrations by low discharge rates. A synthetic relationship is derived and used to generate daily phosphorus concentrations, laying the foundation for analysis of annual loading and evaluation of alternative management practices. Total nitrogen (N) concentration does not have as clear a relationship with discharge. Using a simple regression relationship, annual P loadings are estimated as having a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 39.8 t/yr and 31.9 t/yr and mean absolute percentage errors of 19 percent and 28 percent at Watts and Tahlequah, respectively. P is the limiting nutrient over the full range of discharges. Given that the majority of P is derived from Arkansas, management practices that control P would have the most benefit if applied on the Arkansas side of the border.     

INCORPORATING NATURAL VARIABILITY,UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK INTO WATER QUALITY EVALUATIONS USING DURATION CURVES1

ABSTRACT: Quantifying natural variability, uncertainty, and risk with minimal data is one of the greatest challenges facing those engaged in water quality evaluations, such as development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL), because of regulatory, natural, and analytical constraints. Quantification of uncertainty and variability in natural systems is illustrated using duration curves (DCs), plots that illustrate the percent of time that a particular flow rate (FDC), concentration (CDC), or load rate (LDC; “TMDL”) is exceeded, and are constructed using simple derived distributions. Duration curves require different construction methods and interpretations, depending on whether there is a statistically significant correlation between concentration (C) and flow (Q), and on the sign of the C‐Q regression slope (positive or negative). Flow DCs computed from annual runoff data vary compared with an FDC developed using all data. Percent exceedance for DCs can correspond to risk; however, DCs are not composed of independent quantities. Confidence intervals of data about a regression line can be used to develop confidence limits for the CDC and LDC. An alternate expression to a fixed TMDL is suggested as the risk of a load rate being exceeded and lying between confidence limits. Averages over partial ranges of DCs are also suggested as an alternative expression of TMDLs. DCs can be used to quantify watershed response in terms of changes in exceedances, concentrations, and load rates after implementation of best management practices.     

BUILDUP,WASHOFF, AND EVENT MEAN CONCENTRATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Most watershed water quality simulation models require the user to specify pollutant buildup and washoff rate parameters for pollutants, by land use. Buildup and washoff rates are difficult to measure directly, and only limited guidance and few observed data are available from the literature. Many studies, however, report storm event mean concentrations (EMCs). These EMCs must arise as a result of the buildup and washoff processes, but typically represent the net contribution from a variety of pervious and impervious surfaces. This paper explores the relationship between EMCs and buildup/washoff parameters. An assumption of the mathematical form of the buildup/washoff relationship gives an algebraic expression for the EMC consistent with model assumptions. This yields techniques to separate observed EMCs into contributions from different land uses and from pervious and impervious surfaces. Given this relationship, numerical optimization may be used to estimate site specific values of buildup and washoff parameters from observed storm EMCs for use in modeling. Use of this approach helps ensure that model parameters are consistent with observed data, providing a rational starting point for final model calibration. Several site examples demonstrate use of the method.     

USE OF STAGE DATA TO CHARACTERIZE HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN AN URBANIZING ENVIRONMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of a study on the use of continuous stage data to describe the relation between urban development and three aspects of hydrologic condition that are thought to influence stream ecosystems—overall stage variability, stream flashiness, and the duration of extreme‐stage conditions. This relation is examined using data from more than 70 watersheds in three contrasting environmental settings—the humid Northeast (the metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, area); the very humid Southeast (the metropolitan Birmingham, Alabama, area); and the semiarid West (the metropolitan Salt Lake City, Utah, area). Results from the Birmingham and Boston studies provide evidence linking increased urbanization with stream flashiness. Fragmentation of developed land cover patches appears to ameliorate the effects of urbanization on overall variability and flashiness. There was less success in relating urbanization and streamflow conditions in the Salt Lake City study. A related investigation of six North Carolina sites with long term discharge and stage data indicated that hydrologic condition metrics developed using continuous stage data are comparable to flow based metrics, particularly for stream flashiness measures.     

THE MISUSE OF HYDROLOGIC UNIT MAPS FOR EXTRAPOLATION,REPORTING, AND ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The use of watersheds to conduct research on land/water relationships has expanded recently to include both extrapolation and reporting of water resource information and ecosystem management. More often than not, hydrologic units (HUs) are used for these purposes, with the implication that hydrologic units are synonymous with watersheds. Whereas true topographic watersheds are areas within which apparent surface water drains to a particular point, generally only 45 percent of all hydrologic units, regardless of their hierarchical level, meet this definition. Because the area contributing to the downstream point in many hydrologic units extends far beyond the unit boundaries, use of the hydrologic unit framework to show regional and national patterns of water quality and other environmental resources can result in incorrect and misleading illustrations. In this paper, the implications of this misuse are demonstrated using four adjacent HUs in central Texas. A more effective way of showing regional patterns in environmental resources is by using data from true watersheds representative of different ecological regions containing particular mosaics of geographical characteristics affecting differences in ecosystems and water quality.     

事故前人因失误研究

在安全评价中，人因失误特别是事故后人因失误越来越受到重视；但相对而言，事故前人因失误没有引起足够的重视。本通过对大量核电厂安全分析报告和运行事件报告的考察，系统地阐述了事故前人因失误对系统安全的显影响，并在此基础上，归纳出在核电站开展事故前人因(失误)分析的程序。该程序主要包括系统熟悉，定性分析，筛选，定量计算，与故障树的集成，敏感性分析与不确定性分析，形成分析档等几个步骤。     

高速铁路轨道的安全管理

高速铁路的轨道结构要求具有高平顺性。为使轨道结构的平顺性持久、稳定 ,需要在设计、施工、管理各个环节进行严格控制。国外高速铁路的运营经验表明 ,轨道的安全管理在实现高速行车时 ,起着巨大的技术保障作用。笔者在分析高速铁路轨道结构的平顺性特征基础上 ,讨论了轨道不平顺管理、列车振动加速度管理、钢轨踏面及伤损管理、无缝线路管理等方面的问题 ,并提出了改进新思路 ,即应建立异常情况下的处理机制。