STREAM TEMPERATURE CORRELATIONS WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN MINNESOTA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE WARMING1

ABSTRACT: Air temperatures are sometimes used as easy substitutes for stream temperatures. To examine the errors associated with this substitution, linear relationships between 39 Minnesota stream water temperature records and associated air temperature records were analyzed. From the lumped data set (38,082 daily data pairs), equations were derived for daily, weekly, monthly, and annual mean temperatures. Standard deviations between all measured and predicted water temperatures were 3.5°C (daily), 2.6°C (weekly), 1.9°C (monthly), and 1.3°C (annual). Separate analyses for each stream gaging station gave substantially lower standard deviations. Weather monitoring stations were, on average, 37.5 km from the stream. The measured water temperatures follow the annual air temperature cycle closely. No time lags were taken into account, and periods of ice cover were excluded from the analysis. If atmospheric CO₂ doubles in the future, air temperatures in Minnesota are projected (CCC GCM) to rise by 4.3°C in the warm season (April-October). This would translate into an average 4.1°C stream temperature rise, provided that stream shading would remain unaltered.     

江苏省大雾的变化特征及气溶胶对其影响

通过分析近50年江苏长序列大雾日数、持续时间、时空分布规律以及其成因,探讨气溶胶对大雾形成的可能机制.研究结果表明:大雾可能出现在任何时候,但在清晨和秋季出现的频率最多.它们的变化可从该区的季节环流背景特征和雾的形成机理得以解释.年代际大雾日变化大体呈现出抛物线(先升后降)分布特征,而大雾持续时间一直呈波动增长趋势,气象因素不能全部解释其变化特征.气溶胶对大雾形成和持续时间可能有重要影响,气象因素和气溶胶共同作用可解释江苏省年际大雾日变化和大雾持续的变化特征.     

海洋性气候对天津市滨海地区空气质量的影响及预报

对天津市滨海地区污染气象条件与空气质量进行了相关分析研究,并在此基础上建立该地区空气质量统计预报方法,建立的统计方程经过试预报验证,取得良好的预报效果。     

A factor analysis study: Air pollution,meteorology, and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases

It is well known that air pollution exerts adverse effects on health and environment. Bal?kesir located in the Marmara region (Turkey) has serious air pollution problems produced by heating in the months of winter. In this study, the effect of exposure to air pollution on hospital admission for respiratory illnesses among children and adults was examined. Epidemiological data from records of hospitals, air pollutants and meteorological data were used. During July 2005–July 2007 period, there was a total of 280,426 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases. In a population-based analysis, 9 children were admitted for asthma, 17 children for acute bronchitis, and 20 children for lower respiratory diseases out of 100 children. There was a significant increase in the hospital admissions for respiratory diseases and air pollutants from October to March. It was concluded that children living in the city suffer from respiratory diseases such as asthma, pneumonia, and lower respiratory diseases. Three factors that account for approximately 90% of total variance of hospital admissions, air pollution, and meteorology were identified by means of principal component factor analysis.     

上海地区近136年气温和降水量变化的多尺度分析

论文主要利用墨西哥帽小波变换和经验模态分解(EMD)等方法对1873-2008年上海地区年平均气温和年降水量序列进行分析。以期认识上海气候在不同尺度下的振荡结构和周期特征。结果表明:上海近136 a来增温趋势明显,特别是在20世纪80年代以后增速超过以往。而40年代的暖期和60年代的冷期构成上海20世纪气温变化的主要特征。城市化的发展对城郊气温变化差异的影响十分显著。上海的年降水量主要是以短时间尺度的振荡为主,其中以40 a左右的波动为主要周期。小波变换的结果表明在长时间尺度上降水将增加,而短时间尺度上则相反。     

秋季嘉兴PM2.5质量浓度特征分析

利用膜采样、颗粒在线称重方法和维萨拉气象仪对2004和2006年秋季嘉兴大气中ρ(PM_2.5)及气象因子进行了分析.结果表明:2004和2006年秋季ρ(PM2.5)分别为(84.7±62.4)和(89.0±61.5) 　μg/m3;ρ(PM2.5)占ρ(PM₁₀) 比例为42%～69%;ρ(PM_2.5)日均值变化大(16.7～345.7 μg/m3),晴天ρ(PM_2.5)约为阴雨天的2倍.ρ(PM_2.5)日变化分析表明,晴天呈双峰双谷现象,晚高峰(16:00—20:00)ρ(PM_2.5)大于早高峰(06:00—10:00),阴雨天日变化不明显.PM_2.5与相对湿度无显著相关性,但在不同相对湿度下PM_2.5与能见度呈显著的负指数关系.东北风和西北风是观测期内当地的主导风向,ρ(PM2.5)高值出现在西南风方向,重污染天气过程形成原因复杂.      

城市空气污染数值预报的技术关键

在分析城市空气污染数值预报要素的基础上,建立了包括污染源排放清单,气象中尺度数值预报模型MM5,ADMS-城市模型软件的城市空气质量预报系统。首次提出了空气质量环境背景值的确定等提高城市空气污染预报准确率的有效措施。     

巢湖藻类遥感监测和气象因子分析

利用多年的卫星遥感资料,在对巢湖藻类进行监测的基础上,分析巢湖藻类爆发的时空分布规律,分析结果表明巢湖藻类夏秋两季爆发频繁,在空间上爆发主要发生在巢湖的西半湖。同时,通过分析藻类爆发期间气象观测资料,发现与巢湖藻类爆发相关的气象因子主要有气温、风速和降水。     

一次暴雨空报和预警失误分析

通过分析2009年5月17到20日的天气背景、对比分析清远本站和郴州站的探空资料,以及清远本站的湿度、风等要素,找出北部地区和南部地区在同一环流背景下,所产生量级差异较大的降水原因。得出郴州站对北部地区的强降水指示意义在一定程度上大于清远本站;而清远本站的单站资料对清远本站强降雨指示意义明显。精细分析天气系统位置,可提高强天气在同一地区内的精细落区预报。雷达资料对本站的强天气预警信号发布具有重要指示意义。     

沈阳市春季一次沙尘天气过程分析

2008年5月27—28日中国北方发生了一次影响范围最大、持续时间长的沙尘暴天气过程,造成了严重的空气污染。受其影响沈阳市出现了一次以浮尘天气为主的轻度污染事件,给沈阳地区的生产和生活带来了影响。主要从天气形势上分析了此次沙尘天气形成的原因。结果表明,此次过程是由强冷空气和蒙古气旋引起的,蒙古气旋发展和地面冷锋移动经过蒙古国和华北北部等干燥、疏松的地表形成扬沙、沙尘暴,大量的细小沙尘粒子随高空偏西气流携带而至沈阳,形成浮尘天气。