Point patterns of forest fire locations

In this paper I demonstrate some of the techniques for the analysis of spatial point patterns that have become available due to recent developments in point process modelling software. These developments permit convenient exploratory data analysis, model fitting, and model assessment. Efficient model fitting, in particular, makes possible the testing of statistical hypotheses of genuine interest, even when interaction between points is present, via Monte Carlo methods. The discussion of these techniques is conducted jointly with and in the context of some preliminary analyses of a collection of data sets which are of considerable interest in their own right. These data sets (which were kindly provided to me by the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources) consist of the complete records of wildfires which occurred in New Brunswick during the years 1987 through 2003. In treating these data sets I deal with data-cleaning problems, methods of exploratory data analysis, means of detecting interaction, fitting of statistical models, and residual analysis and diagnostics. In addition to demonstrating modelling techniques, I include a discussion on the nature of statistical models for point patterns. This is given with a view to providing an understanding of why, in particular, the Strauss model fails as a model for interpoint attraction and how it has been modified to overcome this difficulty. All actual modelling of the New Brunswick fire data is done only with the intent of illustrating techniques. No substantive conclusions are or can be drawn at this stage. Realistic modelling of these data sets would require incorporation of covariate information which I do not so far have available.

RECHARGE TO ALLUVIAL VALLEY AQUIFERS FROM OVERBANK FLOW AND EXCESS INFILTRATION1

ABSTRACT: Recharge is an important parameter for models that simulate water and contaminant transport in unconfined aquifers. Unfortunately, measurements of actual recharge are not usually available causing recharge to be estimated or possibly added to the calibration procedure. In this study, differences between observed water-table elevations and water-table elevations simulated with a model based on the one-dimensional Boussinesq equation were used to identify both the timing and quantity of recharge to an alluvial valley aquifer. Observed water table elevations and river stage data were recorded during a five-year period from 1991 to 1995 at the Ohio Management Systems Evaluation Area located in south-central Ohio. Direct recharge attributed to overbank flow during and shortly after flood conditions accounted for 65 percent of the total recharge computed during the five-year study period. Recharge of excess infiltration to the aquifer was intermittent and occurred soon after large rainfall events and high river stage. Specification of constant recharge with time values in ground-water simulation models seems inappropriate for stream-aquifer systems given the strong influence of the river on water table elevations in these systems.     

谈水库移民城镇的环境功能恢复

以四川省二滩水电站淹没影响的盐边县城迁建前后环境状况变化为例 ,提出水库移民安置中应重视淹没实物环境功能的恢复。     

宁夏地区二斑叶螨的寄主植物选择及其季节转移

采用田间系统观察和室内饲养方法,调查并发现宁夏引黄灌区和新垦区二斑叶螨（Tetranychus urticae Koch)为寄主植物88种,其中野生寄主植物59种,栽培寄主29种,垦前荒漠,半荒漠有适宜二斑叶螨生存和繁殖的寄主植物分布,用生命表方法研究了20种主要寄主植物对二斑叶螨实验种群净生殖率（R0)的营养效应,不同寄主植物随季节的变化其营养效应明显不同,对二斑叶螨在这些寄主植物间的季节转移规律研究表明,宁夏农田,以野荠菜Capsella bursa-pastoris,小旋花Calystegia hederacea,小蓟Cephalanoplos segetumji,苦苣菜Sonchus brachyotus,车前草Plantago asiatica,蚕豆Vicia foba,大豆Glycine max,玉米Zea mays等一起,构成了有利于二斑叶螨季节转移的寄主体系,分析认为,宁夏麦套玉米间作大豆的耕种模式是二斑叶螨大发生的主要原因之一。     

生产函数的确定及其在经济损失分析中的应用

考察了Cobb-Douglas生产函数及其几种改进模型的适用范围,以确定适用于震后各生产领域的经济损失评估模型。通过以某市历年投入产出资料为例,说明了其在评定地震损失中的应用。     

Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: accuracy and uncertainty analysis

Mapping the spatial distribution of contaminants in soils is the basis of pollution evaluation and risk control. Interpolation methods are extensively applied in the mapping processes to estimate the heavy metal concentrations at unsampled sites. The performances of interpolation methods (inverse distance weighting, local polynomial, ordinary kriging and radial basis functions) were assessed and compared using the root mean square error for cross validation. The results indicated that all interpolation methods provided a high prediction accuracy of the mean concentration of soil heavy metals. However, the classic method based on percentages of polluted samples, gave a pollution area 23.54-41.92% larger than that estimated by interpolation methods. The difference in contaminated area estimation among the four methods reached 6.14%. According to the interpolation results, the spatial uncertainty of polluted areas was mainly located in three types of region: (a) the local maxima concentration region surrounded by low concentration (clean) sites, (b) the local minima concentration region surrounded with highly polluted samples; and (c) the boundaries of the contaminated areas.     

新生代农民工市民化进程与空间分异研究

农民工市民化问题是当今城市地理学研究的一个重大课题.基于大连市300名新生代农民工的问卷调查,从外部环境和新生代农民工自身情况两方面,构建了市民化指标体系,修正了基于C-D函数的市民化进程模型,采用SPSS软件对问卷结果进行统计分析,定量分析了大连市新生代农民工市民化进程的特点,运用Maplnfo作出空间分异图,得出大连市新生代农民工市民化进程的空间分异特征:①市内四个主城区的市民化水平低于副城区;②市中心及其辐射地带市民化水平较低,城乡结合部市民化水平较高;③市民化指标与市民化水平空间分异不匹配.目前新生代农民工市民化的相关制度环境处于阻碍阶段,城市居民对新生代农民工的社会认同和接纳程度较好,新生代农民工自身已经具备市民化的能力,城乡结合部和副城区(郊区)是其定居城市的最佳区域,农民工市民化进程是一个任重而道远的任务,国家、社会应为新生代农民工提供一个平台,加快农民工到市民的转化进程.     

玉溪市未来人口预测三种模型的分析

人口问题是一个国家或地区可持续发展的前提。人口规模是否合理,对一个国家或地区未来的经济、社会和生态环境可持续发展影响深远。运用马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic增长模型和线性函数三种理论模型,利用《玉溪市统计年鉴》统计数据对玉溪市2010—2020年的人口发展规模做出预测,预测结果显示3种模型均取得了较好的模拟效果。Logistic增长模型的预测值最小,故采用其预测值作为预测结果。     

中国农田生态系统碳净吸收重心移动及其原因

为深入了解我国农田生态系统碳净吸收的区域差异及其原因,本文采用重心模型分析了农田系统碳净吸收重心移动规律,运用C-D生产函数分析了影晌农田系统碳净吸收重心移动的因素,并在此基础上计算了各影响因素对各区域碳净吸收的贡献率,提出了相应的政策建议.结果表明:①我国农田系统碳净吸收重心坐标经度减小较快,纬度波动增加,落实到地理区域上呈向西北方向移动的趋势.东南区与蒙新区是农田系统碳净吸收比重下降和增长速度最快的地区,而西南区已逐渐成为我国农田系统碳净吸收的主要贡献区.②常规投入中土地投入是影响农田系统碳净吸收重心移动的首要因素,资本投入(包括化肥、劳动力)也是重要的影响因素:控制变量中种植结构是主要影响因素,使用权与收益权变量系数显著但影响不大.③各影响因素对区域碳净吸收的贡献存在显著的地区差异,但影响各区域碳净吸收的主要贡献因素为土地、化肥和种植结构.     

转型期土地利用总体规划公共治理职能研究

土地利用总体规划具有较强的公共政策属性,在我国社会转型期,将“公共治理”理论引入土地利用总体规划中,对于公平、有效配置和永续利用土地资源具有重要意义.采用文献资料法和定性分析法,阐述“公共治理”理论的内涵,论证土地利用总体规划公共政策属性,探讨“土地利用总体规划公共治理职能”的含义及功效、主要表现和基本特征.概述我国社会转型期第一、二轮土地利用总体规划发展历程,总结取得的成绩,从转型时期的经济体制改革和社会主义市场经济发展角度分析两轮土地利用总体规划公共治理职能定位及实现过程中所存在的不足.论述转型期社会经济发展对土地利用总体规划公共治理职能的内在要求,从市场化经济、政治民主化进程、全球化和加入WTO背景分析转型期实现土地利用总体规划公共治理职能的社会条件.在此基础上,从公共治理目标、编制实施理念、规划内容、公民社会网络治理、市场配置土地资源功能、法律法规以及各类规划协调配合等七方面,提出实现与完善土地利用总体规划公共治理职能的对策建议.