Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes

For reducing greenhouse gas emissions, intensity targets are attracting interest as a flexible mechanism that would better allow for economic growth than emissions caps. For the same expected emissions, however, the economic responses to unexpected productivity shocks differ. Using a real business cycle model, we find that a cap dampens the effects of productivity shocks in the economy on all variables except for the shadow value of the emissions constraint. An emissions tax leads to the same expected outcomes as a cap but with greater volatility. Certainty-equivalent intensity targets maintain higher levels of labor, capital, and output than other policies, with lower expected costs and no more volatility than with no policy.     

遂昌金矿通风系统测定及评价

介绍了遂昌金矿通风系统的现状及测定结果，找出了该系统存在的问题，并提出相应的改进措施。     

“半个地球”愿景下的保护地识别——基于全球主要优先保护模块

设立保护地是保护生物多样性的最有效举措。“半个地球”愿景提出将50%的面积纳入保护地,并有效保护85%的物种,是全球生态保护的目标。IUCN保护地分类系统是国际通用的标准,一系列优先保护模块研究则对保护地的识别进行着探索。本文旨在通过对这些模块的保护目标、识别标准等进行分析,为保护地科学识别提供合理参考。主要结论如下:（1）物种、栖息地与人类活动是各模块的主要考虑要素,识别标准包括物种丰富度、生境转变率、人类活动强度等;（2）各模块对生境转变率的考虑有“亡羊补牢”和“未雨绸缪”两种思路,对人类活动强度的考虑有直接和间接之分;（3）各模块分布面积占比在5.77%~25.32%之间,总范围占全球陆表的55.59%,超过了“半个地球”愿景的目标比例。     

地方环境约束目标对经济增长的影响效应

从2003~2017年中国283个地级市的政府工作报告中,收集了各年度各城市的环境保护约束目标,考察了各类环境约束目标对经济增长的影响.研究发现,对于SO₂等工业污染物的直接约束能够在促使政府提升环境治理力度的同时,释放经济增长红利;关于空气质量优良天数和PM_2.5浓度的间接约束不足以刺激污染型企业转型,且导致经济增长速度放缓.无环境约束将产生正向经济增长效应,但会以环境污染为代价.中间机制检验结果显示,产业结构和环境治理是环境约束影响经济增长的主要传导渠道.在环境保护约束的特征方面,约束目标“加码”将抑制经济增长,设定污染物减排区间更有利于发挥经济增长效应.经济与环境协调度方面,对环境污染物设定约束目标有助于促进经济与环境协调发展,无约束则不利于经济增长和环境保护双重目标的实现.地方政府应在明确设定污染物排放目标的基础上,遵循渐进原则对环境保护约束目标进行调整.     

双碳目标下电力系统转型对产业部门影响评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

通过细化机组级燃煤发电财务状况建模,测算了提前退役、灵活性调整、限制和停止新增等情景下煤电搁浅资产风险,明确了不同情景下导致搁浅资产规模及时空分布情况.结果表明:存量煤电机组是引起搁浅资产的主体,控制新增煤电有助于降低搁浅资产风险,提前退役、灵活性调整情景下中国现存和新增煤电搁浅资产总规模分别为1.90万亿和3.98万亿元;不同转型情景导致煤电搁浅资产的年际分布差异明显,提前退役搁浅压力主要集中于2030~2040年间,灵活性调整情景下则集中于2021~2035年间;煤电搁浅资产空间分布极不均衡,山东、内蒙古、江苏等10个煤电大省搁浅资产规模占全国的67%和70%.因此,煤电低碳转型需审慎决策,重视提前退役造成的煤电资产搁浅,更要防范和控制灵活性调整导致的煤电资产减值,重点关注山东、内蒙古、新疆、江苏等重点省份,制定因地制宜的煤电转型策略,帮助电力相关企业及政府等进行减排政策选择.     

Setting population targets for mammals using body mass as a predictor of population persistence

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population‐specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species‐specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life‐history traits related to species’ body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species‐ and context‐specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context‐specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species‐specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large‐scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning.     

广州河涌水体中食蚊鱼肝脏性激素相关基因的表达水平研究

应用食蚊鱼细胞色素P450芳香化酶基因(CYP19α)、卵黄蛋白原基因(VTGα)和雌/雄激素受体基因(ERα/ARα)m RNA转录水平为指标,评价广州海珠涌和黄埔涌食蚊鱼受环境激素物质干扰产生雌/雄性化效应的现状。结果显示,海珠涌宝岗大道段(BG)、洪德路段(HD)和黄埔涌赤岗路段(CG)、苗艺路段(MY)采样点雌鱼性腺CYP19αm RNA表达水平显著降低。雌鱼肝脏VTGαm RNA的表达水平在夏冬两季CG点都显著升高,但在BG、HD和MY点的表达水平在冬季则显著下降;夏冬两季雌鱼雄激素受体ARαm RNA表达水平在各点都显著升高。雄鱼性腺CYP19αm RNA表达水平在各点都无明显差异,但CG点在夏季显著升高,而MY点在冬季则显著下降;雄鱼肝脏VTGα和雌激素受体ERαm RNA表达水平分别在各点都显著升高,但夏季MY点和冬季HD、MY各点无明显差异。结果表明,雌性食蚊鱼的VTGα和CYP19α基因受到不同程度的抑制,ERα较对照REF明显升高,表现出雄激素效应;雄性食蚊鱼VTGα和ERα转录水平较对照REF显著升高,CYP19α基因无显著性差异,表现出雌激素效应。生活在广州海珠涌和黄埔涌中的食蚊鱼受雌/雄激素物质干扰明显,表明河涌中环境激素污染严重。     

Concentrations of selected metals in chicken eggs from commercial farms in Southern Nigeria

This work presents the results of the determination of concentrations of the trace metals Ni, Zn, Mn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, and Fe in eggs from farms in Southern Nigeria. The mean concentrations (µg?g^?1 fresh weight) ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 for Ni, 3.1 to 8.9 for Zn, 0.45 to 0.65 for Mn, 0.4 to 1.2 for Pb, <0.09 to 0.3 for Cr, 0.1 to 0.3 for Cd, 0.26 to 0.34 for Co, 0.9 to 1.2 for Cu and 19.5 to 24.0 for Fe. The concentrations and estimated dietary intakes of these metals were below the respective statutory limits. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values for the individual metals in all zones are less than 1, i.e., within safe levels. The combined THQ values for the different zones were greater than 1but less than 2, with a significant contribution of cobalt.     

Near-Miss定义及管理流程分析

作为事故金字塔的基座,Near-Miss管理在企业HSE管理乃至整个企业管理中起着非常重要的作用。通过消除底部的Near-Miss,可以最大限度地消除隐患,避免顶端意外事件的发生,提升企业HSE业绩,提高企业的运行效率。通过比较分析,可将Near-Miss翻译为"虚惊事件"。一个完整的Near-Miss管理可分解为八个流程,每个流程缺一不可,且前面的流程决定了后面流程的完成情况。通过八个流程的充分运行,可以获得Near-Miss管理效益的最大化,最终提升企业的HSE管理水平。     

基于量子遗传算法的液压支架喷雾效率的参数优化设计

为了提高综采工作面液压支架喷雾的降尘效率,通过分析影响支架喷雾降尘效率的因素,以支架喷雾效率最高为优化目标,利用量子遗传算法对喷嘴到产尘点距离,雾化角度,喷雾压力,喷嘴个数,喷嘴直径多参数进行优化。结果表明:液压支架的采煤机移动喷雾降尘效率增加了1306%,液压支架上的移架/放煤喷雾降尘效率增加了1333%。此研究对于支架喷雾降尘系统的设计,参数的合理选取有一定的参考价值。