区域联防联控挥发性有机物(VOCs)最优减排方案研究

VOCs区域性联防联控治理是当前彻底治理VOCs污染的有效手段,为了实现VOCs区域性联防联控治理,建立了以减排总量最大、减排成本最低、VOCs减排限产产生的经济影响最小为目标的多目标最优减排模型,提出了基于自适应变异率的分解多目标进化算法(Decomposition Multi-objective Evolution...     

基于机器学习的电热防除冰表面温度变化趋势预测

针对飞机部件周期控制律电加热防除冰的应用,提出基于机器学习以预测电加热防除冰表面温度的变化趋势.依靠大型结冰风洞及其电加热防除冰控制系统完成防除冰试验,获得有效的试验数据,以通、断电周期为分割单元,将试验数据划分成验证集和训练集.根据电热防除冰过程的换热情况,构建样本的特征参数,利用机器学习的有监督学习方式,选择KNN...     

基于物质流分析的建筑垃圾产生量预测

针对建筑垃圾产生量激增但其统计数据缺失问题,基于1stOpt拟合平台和Visual Basic编程软件,构建城镇住宅和非住宅建筑垃圾产生量动态预测模型,定量模拟不同建筑寿命情景下建筑垃圾产生量及其组分的变化趋势。结果表明:我国城镇住宅建筑和非住宅建筑存量面积分别在2058年和2064年达到峰值(657.35亿和569.41亿m²)。在短、中、长建筑寿命情景下,住宅和非住宅建筑的新建面积均在21世纪20年代达到峰值,拆除面积峰值将在21世纪下半叶实现。在短、中、长寿命3种情景下,我国城镇住宅建筑垃圾总产量分别于2072年、2081年和2100年达到峰值(28.69亿、21.71亿和16.50亿t);非住宅建筑垃圾总产量分别于2077年、2084年和2100年达到峰值(26.25亿、20.29亿、15.48亿t)。2000年之前,建筑垃圾主要成分为施工垃圾,2000年之后,以拆除垃圾为主,至2100年拆除垃圾占比达98%。其中,混凝土、砖块、钢铁分别占44%~71%、22%~51%、0.50%~2.89%,其他成分占2.76%~4.68%。综合考虑建筑流量发展趋势和建筑垃圾产生特征,政府部门应宏观调控减缓人均建筑面积增长速度,延长建筑使用寿命,提高建筑垃圾循环利用率和二次建材原料的市场消纳量,从而减少建筑垃圾产生量,降低建筑垃圾对生态环境的破坏。     

天津中东部平原区土壤盐分空间分布特征

土壤盐渍化是滨海地区生态保护修复的重要影响因素。为了解天津平原地区土壤盐渍化程度,沿永定新河、海河干流和独流减河3条入海河流海陆方向开展堤外土壤盐分采样调查,结合地统计学和GIS技术,分析海陆方向土壤盐分的空间梯度和变异特征,以期为天津生态保护修复和陆海统筹提供科学依据。结果表明:土壤水溶性盐含量和碱化度整体呈自东南向西北递减的趋势;重度及以上盐渍化土主要分布在海岸线向陆地纵深15 km的滨海新区,其中盐土、重度碱化土主要分布在大港距海10 km内、塘沽与汉沽距海5 km内;中度盐渍化土主要分布在独流减河沿线距海15~60 km内;轻度盐渍化土主要分布在海河干流沿线距海10~60 km内。土壤阳离子以Na+为主;从海岸线向陆域方向,土壤阴离子从以Cl-、 SO 4 2 - 为主逐步过渡到以 SO 4 2 - 、 CO 3 2 - + HCO 3 - 为主。独流减河一线盐渍土类型以硫酸盐-氯化物和氯化物-硫酸盐为主;海河干流中部平原区盐渍土类型以硫酸盐-苏打为主;永定新河一线盐渍土类型以硫酸盐-氯化物和苏打-硫酸盐为主。     

基于生态系统服务理论内涵的山水林田湖草生态保护修复实践——以河南省南太行地区试点工程为例

科学实施山水林田湖草生态保护修复是生态文明建设的重要内容。将提升生态系统服务功能与山水林田湖草生态保护修复工程相结合,以国家第三批山水林田湖草生态保护修复试点项目——河南省南太行地区试点工程为例,探索以提高生态产品供给能力、维护生态安全为目标的南太行地区山水林田湖草生态保护与修复工程实践。地区区位特征及生态环境问题分析表明,南太行地区近年来生态系统服务价值整体呈下降趋势且生态环境破坏严重,许多矿山生态破坏和环境污染历史遗留问题亟待解决,生物多样性保护现状堪忧。以区域突出生态环境问题与主要生态功能定位为依据,按照“格局优化、系统稳定、功能提升”的目标,明确了南太行地区生态保护修复“一山一渠两流域”的总体布局与绩效目标,将其划分为5个生态功能区和7个工程治理区,根据不同功能区和治理区分别提出修复方案和工程治理措施。工程试点方案实施1年多,各项绩效目标完成进度较好,实现了生态效益、经济效益和社会效益的良好结合。     

考虑松动圈影响的钻孔瓦斯抽放合理封孔长度确定研究

以王行庄矿11071工作面为工程试验地点,通过超声波和钻孔窥视现场测试,结合理论计算,开展了瓦斯抽采煤巷松动圈范围和瓦斯抽放钻孔合理封孔长度确定的研究。确定了王行庄11071工作面二1煤层围岩卸压区宽度为8.87 m,极限平衡区宽度为9.87 m,合理封孔深度为10 m;通过极限平衡法理论计算得到的结果与超声波法、钻孔窥视法的测试结果基本相符。     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Quantifying forest fragmentation spatial process in the developing State of Selangor,peninsular Malaysia

Forest fragmentation has several phases; thus, the ecological significance of each phase during a particular period of time must be interpreted. To interpret, this study quantifies the magnitude of forest loss and the changes in the temporal pattern of fragmentation in the State of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia. Using the decision tree model of land transformation, five phases of forest fragmentation were identified: perforation, dissection, dissipation, shrinkage and attrition. This analysis showed that the magnitude of forest loss was the highest during the dissipation phase. The patchiness analysis showed that dissipation contributes to the highest environmental uncertainty found for the forest patches. This study can be considered a first step in the exploration of the properties and the behavioural pattern shown by the spatial process of forest fragmentation.     

How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?

Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, ‘sharp’ upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.