我国物流产业基本经济活动空间格局分析

基于经济基础理论,对1991～2001年间我国各省区物流产业基本经济活动部分进行了实证分析,从省际差异、东中西部差异两个方面分析了我国区域物流产业基本经济活动的省区差异:在时间维度上区域差异呈逐步扩大趋势,在空间结构上表现出较明显的沿海指向性和交通指向性,并以此分析归纳出我国物流产业基本活动的"四区(物流集聚区)一带(物流集聚带)"空间格局特征,进而得出其基本经济活动强度与区域经济发展水平、物流需求程度、科技水平、区位条件、交通等基础设施、政策及历史发展作用紧密相关的结论.     

广东省的地质灾害与防治对策

广东省地质灾害类型多,分布广,频率高,危害大.地震、滑坡、崩塌、地裂缝、地面塌陷、地面沉降和软土地基变形等地质灾害是影响当地经济发展和城乡建设的消极因素.地质灾害的时间分布具有波动性,过去35年来存在两个明显的高发期,分别是1985-1992年和1997年至今;其空间分布具有区域耦合性,地质构造复杂、自然环境恶劣的粤西、粤北低山丘陵区和人类活动剧烈、经济发达的沿海平原地区都是重灾区.地质灾害与自然条件、人类活动关系密切.它们的防治应以防为主,防治结合,将生态与工程措施相结合,并调整人类的经济行为,保持生态环境的平衡.     

洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

北京市地热资源开发的时空变化

简要介绍了北京地热资源特点,分析了北京地热资源开发的时空演变规律.在搜集资料和实地调查的基础上,绘制出了北京城区地热井分布示意图,并针对其开发利用中可能出现的问题提出了对策.     

SUMMER LOW FLOWS IN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: High springtime river flows came earlier by one to two weeks in large parts of northern New England during the 20th Century. In this study it was hypothesized that late spring/early summer recessional flows and late summer/early fall low flows could also be occurring earlier. This could result in a longer period of low flow recession and a decrease in the magnitude of low flows. To test this hypothesis, variations over time in the magnitude and timing of low flows were analyzed. To help understand the relation between low flows and climatic variables in New England, low flows were correlated with air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of data from 23 rural, unregulated rivers across New England indicated little evidence of consistent changes in the timing or magnitude of late summer/early fall low flows during the 20th Century. The interannual variability in the timing and magnitude of the low flows in northern New England was explained much more by the interannual variability in precipitation than by the interannual variability of air temperatures. The highest correlation between the magnitude of the low flows and air temperatures was with May through November temperatures (r =?0.37, p= 0.0017), while the highest correlation with precipitation was with July through August precipitation (r = 0.67, p > 0.0001).     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land‐use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land‐use change projections with the latest developments in network‐connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land‐use change simulations to explore robustness of species’ habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land‐use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat‐quality criteria for protected‐area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade‐offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.     

Systematic Temporal Patterns in the Relationship Between Housing Development and Forest Bird Biodiversity

As people encroach increasingly on natural areas, one question is how this affects avian biodiversity. The answer to this is partly scale‐dependent. At broad scales, human populations and biodiversity concentrate in the same areas and are positively associated, but at local scales people and biodiversity are negatively associated with biodiversity. We investigated whether there is also a systematic temporal trend in the relationship between bird biodiversity and housing development. We used linear regression to examine associations between forest bird species richness and housing growth in the conterminous United States over 30 years. Our data sources were the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the 2000 decennial U.S. Census. In the 9 largest forested ecoregions, housing density increased continually over time. Across the conterminous United States, the association between bird species richness and housing density was positive for virtually all guilds except ground nesting birds. We found a systematic trajectory of declining bird species richness as housing increased through time. In more recently developed ecoregions, where housing density was still low, the association with bird species richness was neutral or positive. In ecoregions that were developed earlier and where housing density was highest, the association of housing density with bird species richness for most guilds was negative and grew stronger with advancing decades. We propose that in general the relationship between human settlement and biodiversity over time unfolds as a 2‐phase process. The first phase is apparently innocuous; associations are positive due to coincidence of low‐density housing with high biodiversity. The second phase is highly detrimental to biodiversity, and increases in housing density are associated with biodiversity losses. The long‐term effect on biodiversity depends on the final housing density. This general pattern can help unify our understanding of the relationship of human encroachment and biodiversity response. Patrones Sistemáticos Temporales en la Relación entre Desarrollos Urbanos y la Biodiversidad de Aves de Bosque     

The Value of Using Feasibility Models in Systematic Conservation Planning to Predict Landholder Management Uptake

Understanding the social dimensions of conservation opportunity is crucial for conservation planning in multiple‐use landscapes. However, factors that influence the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as the history of landscape management, and landholders’ willingness to engage are often difficult or time consuming to quantify and rarely incorporated into planning. We examined how conservation agencies could reduce costs of acquiring such data by developing predictive models of management feasibility parameterized with social and biophysical factors likely to influence landholders’ decisions to engage in management. To test the utility of our best‐supported model, we developed 4 alternative investment scenarios based on different input data for conservation planning: social data only; biological data only; potential conservation opportunity derived from modeled feasibility that incurs no social data collection costs; and existing conservation opportunity derived from feasibility data that incurred collection costs. Using spatially explicit information on biodiversity values, feasibility, and management costs, we prioritized locations in southwest Australia to control an invasive predator that is detrimental to both agriculture and natural ecosystems: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). When social data collection costs were moderate to high, the most cost‐effective investment scenario resulted from a predictive model of feasibility. Combining empirical feasibility data with biological data was more cost‐effective for prioritizing management when social data collection costs were low (<4% of the total budget). Calls for more data to inform conservation planning should take into account the costs and benefits of collecting and using social data to ensure that limited funding for conservation is spent in the most cost‐efficient and effective manner.     

Assessing Sustainability at Multiple Scales in a Rotational Bushmeat Hunting System

Abstract: Results of many studies show unsustainable levels of bushmeat hunting across West/Central Africa. Nevertheless, these results are usually derived from snapshot sustainability indices in which critical parameters are often taken from the literature. Simple, more informative tools for assessing sustainability are needed. We evaluated the impact of bushmeat hunting across a range of temporal, spatial, and taxonomic scales in a comparison of different measures of sustainability. Over 15 months in 2002–2004 in and around a village close to Equatorial Guinea's Monte Alén National Park, we collected data via a village offtake survey, hunter‐camp bushmeat‐consumption diaries, hunter interviews, and following hunters during hunts. We compared 2003 data with a previous offtake survey (1998–1999) and interview reports back to 1990. In the past 14 years, average distance from the village at which hunters operated remained constant, with hunters switching back and forth between long‐established camps, although trapping effort increased. In the past 5 years, overall offtake and number of active hunters did not change substantially, although catch per unit effort (CPUE) decreased slightly. Although the proportion of the two most commonly trapped species (Cephalophus monticola and Atherurus africanus) and gun‐hunted primates increased in the offtake, species presumably less robust to trapping decreased slightly. Apparent sustainability in economic terms may be masking gradual local extirpation of more vulnerable species before and during this study. Our results suggest that changes in prey profiles and CPUE may be the most accurate indicators of actual sustainability; these indices can be monitored with simple village‐based offtake surveys and hunter interviews to improve community management of bushmeat hunting.