射阳湖浮游动物群落结构特征及其与环境因子相关性研究

2016—2017年对射阳湖开展浮游动物群落结构和水质指标逐月监测。结果表明,射阳湖共鉴定出浮游动物61种,其中原生动物、轮虫、枝角类和桡足类分别为25种、24种、7种和5种。浮游动物种类数呈现春夏季多于秋冬季的变化趋势。浮游动物优势种数量较多、分布广,群落结构相对复杂且稳定。运用Shannon-Wiener指数、均匀度指数和B/T指数对射阳湖水质作评价,结果表明,该湖处于轻度—中度污染状态,生物学指标评价法与常规水质评价结果一致。浮游动物群落结构与水质指标相关性分析表明,水温、透明度、Chl-a和DO是影响射阳湖浮游动物群落结构的主要水质指标。     

华东森林及高山背景区域SO2、NOx、CO本底特征

国家大气背景监测福建武夷山站是中国华东区域背景站点之一,可代表华东森林及高山区域背景状况。为了解该区域的大气背景状况,评估区域污染现状以及污染物输送在区域污染中的作用,选取福建武夷山背景站2011年3月至2012年2月主要气体污染物（SO₂、NO_x、CO）为期1年的监测数据,研究各污染物在不同时间尺度的浓度变化特征和相关关系,以及与气象因子的相关关系,并利用后向轨迹模式探讨区域输送对华东森林及高山背景区域各气体污染物质量浓度的影响。结果表明,武夷山背景点监测期间SO₂、NO_x、CO的平均质量浓度分别为3.9、5.1、409.8 μg/m³,且具有明显的季节变化特征,春、冬季明显高于夏、秋季;三者日变化幅度均很小,呈现出单谷型分布型态,说明武夷山背景点受人为活动的影响很小,主要受气象条件影响;相关性分析结果显示,SO₂与NO_x浓度相关性较好,与湿度有较好的负相关,与风速在冬季具有一定的正相关,NO_x与CO浓度在秋季和冬季的相关性较好,且二者与温度的负相关性较好。后向轨迹分析结果表明,SO₂全年最大浓度峰值主要来自北方采暖季燃煤排放的远距离输送影响,NO_x、CO全年最大值则源于生物质燃烧的远距离输送影响。     

房地产用地土壤污染环境风险评价——以江苏某搬迁企业原址用地为例

许多房地产项目都是在工业企业原址上进行开发建设,可能存在不同程度的土壤污染。土壤污染的评估和修复方案已成为房地产开发项目环评的重点,文中采用单因子指数法、内梅罗指数法和土壤背景值对照法对江苏某房地产用地土壤进行了环境风险评价,结果表明该地块不需要进行土壤修复和处置。     

容检规中非圆形缺陷可接受准则的安全裕度

文章以国内典型压力容器用材245R为例，采用GB／T19624~断裂力学评价方法对于《压力容器定期检验规程》表5、表6中的超标非圆形缺陷可接受准则的安全裕度进行评价，评价结果表明其中可接受准则的部分规定不够保守，就此作者给出相关的修改建议。     

Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

祁连山北坡自然恢复杨桦林地植物功能型组成及其影响因素

依据生活型(乔木、藤本、灌木、半灌木、多年生禾草、多年生杂类草和一二年生草本)和水分生态型(旱生、旱中生、中生和湿生)将祁连山北坡次生杨桦林28个调查样地中的81个物种划分为18种植物功能型(Plant functiontypes,PFTs),并通过典范对应分析(CCA)方法研究植物功能型与环境因子间的关系.结果表明:自然恢复杨桦林地植物功能型主要集中在中生多年生杂类草(PFTs16)、湿生多年生杂类草(PFTs23)、旱中生多年生杂类草(PFTs9)和中生灌木(PFTs18)4个植物功能型上;乔、灌、草三层冠层特征和中生植物的大量出现,反映了群落植物生活型趋于复杂化和结构化,生态型逐渐向中生化方向演替的特点;土壤容重、有机碳和全氮含量主要影响植物的生活型分异特征,土壤含水量和林冠郁闭度是植物的水分生态型分异的主要环境因子,而坡位、坡度控制着群落植物总体分布格局的形成.图1表3参31     

CLIMATE FACTOR FOR SMALL-BASIN FLOOD FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: A climate factor, C_T, (T = 2–, 25-, and 100-year recurrence intervals) that delineates regional trends in small-basin flood frequency was derived using data from 71 long-term rainfall record sites. Values of C_T at these sites were developed by a regression analysis that related rainfall-runoff model estimates of T-year floods to a sample set of 50 model calibrations. C_T was regionalized via kriging to develop maps depicting its geographic variation for a large part of the United States east of the 105th meridian. Kriged estimates of C_T and basin-runoff characteristics were used to compute regionalized T-year floods for 200 small drainage basins. Observed T-year flood estimates also were developed for these sites. Regionalized floods are shown to account for a large percentage of the variability in observed flood estimates with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.89 for 2-year floods to 0.82 for 100-year floods. The relative importance of the factors comprising regionalized flood estimates is evaluated in terms of scale (size of drainage area), basin-runoff characteristics (rainfall. runoff model parameters), and climate (C_T).     

建立城市自然灾害承灾能力指标的思路探讨

本文论述了城市承灾能力的含义，分析了我国城市主要自然灾害以及承文体的类型和致灾因素，探讨了城市承灾能力指标，为城市承灾能力综合评判提供了依据．     

中国山区沟谷泥石流危险度的定量判定法

本文根据专家系统调查,确定了一次泥石流冲出物最大方量和泥石流暴发频率作为判定泥石流危险度的主要危险因子。运用灰色关联度分析,优选出10项判定泥石流危险度的次要危险因子,并根据关联序确定了它们的权重。在各危险因子等级划分的基础上,得出了泥石流危险度的定量计算公式。通过实例检验,证明该判定方法具有60％以上的可靠度。