Modelling semi-aquatic vertebrates’ distribution at the drainage basin scale: The case of the otter Lutra lutra in Italy

Modelling habitat suitability of semi-aquatic vertebrates for large scale conservation purposes is a particularly challenging task, due to the fine-scale linearity of riverine habitats, and to the ecological continuum represented by the riparian and the aquatic ecosystems, on one side, and by a river and its tributaries, on the other.     

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

Spatio-temporal dissolved oxygen dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon by fuzzy pattern recognition

This paper models the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon as a function of the physico-chemical and ecological system variables, including the submerged vegetation, nutrients, and hydrodynamics. It should be viewed as the concluding sequel to a previous paper describing the dynamics of the lagoon ecosystem [Giusti, E., Marsili-Libelli, S., 2006. An integrated model for the Orbetello lagoon ecosystem, Ecol. Model. 196, 379–394] by introducing the missing DO dynamics. The model considers the oxygen demand originating from the decay of carbonaceous and nitrogenous compounds, as well as photosynthesis and natural reaeration by winds and currents as the oxygen producing processes. With a fixed-parameter set the model could accurately reproduce each single circadian DO cycle, but in the long run it failed to extend this fit and could not accommodate the large DO fluctuations induced by the seasonal variability. In order to enhance the model flexibility, a fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm was designed to classify the circadian DO patterns into four typical behaviours, related to the season, and estimate the corresponding parameters, with the overall model output being a fuzzy combination of these sets. The paper discusses several methods to patch the parameter sets and compares their performance in tracking long-term DO variations. A final assessment of the model validity is obtained by incorporating the whole DO dynamics (model, fuzzy pattern recognition and parameter combination) into the general lagoon model and producing a consistently correct series of DO daily distributions over a yearly cycle. Thus the paper contains both a practical and a methodological aspect. The practical one is the linking of all the lagoon dynamics to the dissolved oxygen kinetics in order to clarify to what extent macroalgae and macrophytes influence the oxygen balance. The methodological aspect consists of extending the validity of short-term models to long time-horizons through a patching technique supported by fuzzy pattern recognition.     

LONG‐TERM CHANGES IN REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC REGIME FOLLOWING IMPOUNDMENT IN A HUMID‐CLIMATE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We analyzed the type of hydrologic adjustments resulting from flow regulation across a range of dam types, distributed throughout the Connecticut River watershed, using two approaches: (1) the Index of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and (2) log‐Pearson Type III flood frequency analysis. We applied these analyses to seven rivers that have extensive pre‐and post‐disturbance flow records and to six rivers that have only long post‐regulation flow records. Lastly, we analyzed six unregulated streams to establish the regional natural flow regime and to test whether it has changed significantly over time in the context of an increase in forest cover from less than 20 percent historically to greater than 80 percent at present. We found significant hydrologic adjustments associated with both impoundments and land use change. On average, maximum peak flows decrease by 32 percent in impounded rivers, but the effect decreases with increasing flow duration. One‐day minimum low flows increase following regulation, except for the hydro‐electric facility on the mainstem. Hydrograph reversals occur more commonly now on the mainstem, but the tributary flood control structures experience diminished reversals. Major shifts in flood frequency occur with the largest effect occurring downstream of tributary flood control impoundments and less so downstream of the mainstem's hydroelectric facility. These overall results indicate that the hydrologic impacts of dams in humid environments can be as significant as those for large, multiple‐purpose reservoirs in more arid environments.     

TECIIMQUES FOR DETECTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE IN HIGH RESOURCE STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: A “synthetic paired basin” technique that combines hydrologic monitoring and watershed modeling proves to be a useful tool in detecting hydrologic change in creeks draining basins undergoing urbanization. In this approach, measured stream flow following subbasin treatment (a period of urbanization) is compared with flow from a control subbasin over the same time period. The control subbasin is the pretreatment subbasin itself as represented by a well‐calibrated hydrologic model that is input with post‐treatment meteorological data. The technique is illustrated for stream monitoring sites at the outlets of two high‐resource sub‐basins in the Bear Creek basin of King County, Washington. Application of this technique holds promise to provide earlier warning of cumulative, human impacts on aquatic resources and to better inform adaptive watershed management for resource protection.     

GIS‐BASED HYIROLOGIC MODELING OF RIPARIAN AREAS: IMPLICATIONS FOR STREAM WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Riparian buffers have potential for reducing excess nutrient levels in surface water. Spatial variation in riparian buffer effectiveness is well recognized, yet researchers and managers still lack effective general tools for understanding the relevance of different hydrologic settings. We present several terrain‐based GIS models to predict spatial patterns of shallow, subsurface hydrologic flux and riparian hydrology. We then link predictions of riparian hydrology to patterns of nutrient export in order to demonstrate potential for augmenting the predictive power of land use/land cover (LU/LC) maps. Using predicted hydrology in addition to LUILC, we observed increases in the explained variation of nutrient exports from 290 sites across Lower Michigan. The results suggest that our hydrologic predictions relate more strongly to patterns of nutrient export than the presence or absence of wetland vegetation, and that in fact the influence of vegetative structure largely depends on its hydrologic context. Such GIS models are useful and complimentary tools for exploring the role of hydrologic routing in riparian ecosystem function and stream water quality. Modeling efforts that take a similar GIS approach to material transport might be used to further explore the causal implications of riparian buffers in heterogeneous watersheds.     

秦皇岛市陆地植被与大气碳平衡研究

地球的碳循环已成为全球气候变化的一个热点,陆地植被是地球破循环中的一个重要贮存库。本文在分析秦皇岛市陆地植被状况的基础上,对CO_2排放量和吸收量进行了估算,结果表明,陆地植被吸收CO_2的数量占排放量的79％。结合秦皇岛市的实际,提出有利于大气碳平衡的对策。     

Testing the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) as a management tool in a shallow temperate estuary of south Europe (Mondego, Portugal)

A long-term monitoring program has been carried out since the early 1990s in the Mondego estuary, on Portugal's west coast, which is presently under heavy human pressure. In this shallow warm-temperate estuary, a significant macroalgal proliferation has been observed, which is a clear sign of nutrient enrichment. As a result of competition with algae, the extension of the seagrass meadows (mainly Zostera noltii) has been reduced. The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) in predicting the tendencies of trophic key-components (macrophytes, macroalgae, benthic macroinvertebrate and wading birds) as a response to the changes in estuarine environmental conditions. The StDM is a sequential modelling process developed in order to predict the ecological status of changed ecosystems, from which management strategies can be designed. The data used in the dynamic model construction included true gradients of environmental changes and was sampled from January 1993 to September 1995 and from December 1998 to December 2005. The dynamic model developed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure performed to discriminate the significant relationships between the selected ecological components. The model validation was based on independent data collected from January 1996 to January 1997 and from February 1999 to April 2000 for all the state variables considered. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the StDM reliability in capturing the trophic dynamics of the studied estuary, by predicting the behavioural pattern for the most part of the components selected, with a focus on the Zostera noltii meadows recovery after the implementation of important management measures.     

The Future of Scattered Trees in Agricultural Landscapes

Abstract: Mature trees scattered throughout agricultural landscapes are critical habitat for some biota and provide a range of ecosystem services. These trees are declining in intensively managed agricultural landscapes globally. We developed a simulation model to predict the rates at which these trees are declining, identified the key variables that can be manipulated to mitigate this decline, and compared alternative management proposals. We used the initial numbers of trees in the stand, the predicted ages of these trees, their rate of growth, the number of recruits established, the frequency of recruitment, and the rate of tree mortality to simulate the dynamics of scattered trees in agricultural landscapes. We applied this simulation model to case studies from Spain, United States, Australia, and Costa Rica. We predicted that mature trees would be lost from these landscapes in 90–180 years under current management. Existing management recommendations for these landscapes—which focus on increasing recruitment—would not reverse this trend. The loss of scattered mature trees was most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits, and frequency of recruitment. We predicted that perpetuating mature trees in agricultural landscapes at or above existing densities requires a strategy that keeps mortality among established trees below around 0.5% per year, recruits new trees at a rate that is higher than the number of existing trees, and recruits new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of trees. Numbers of mature trees in landscapes represented by the case studies will decline before they increase, even if strategies of this type are implemented immediately. This decline will be greater if a management response is delayed.     

Ecological service assessment of human-dominated freshwater ecosystem with a case study in Yangzhou Prefecture, China

Freshwater ecosystems provide a host of services to humanity. These services are now rapidly being lost, not least because of the inability of making the impacts measurable. To overcome this obstacle, assessment frameworks for freshwater ecosystem services are needed. A simple water equivalent framework to assess the ecological services provided by freshwater ecosystems was developed in this study. It translated the occupation of freshwater ecosystem services into biologically freshwater volumes and then compares this consumption to the freshwater throughput, that is, the ecological capacity available in this region. In this way, we use the example of Yangzhou Prefecture, to account the main categories of human occupation of water ecosystem services. The result showed that there is a huge gap between the consumption and the supply of freshwater ecosystem services. This must encourage local government to make land-use and water management decisions both economically rational and environmentally sound.