重要生态功能区划方法研究——以南京市为例

提出了对城市范围内的重要生态功能区进行分类划定的方法，包括功能区的划分类型、边界确定的原则等，并以南京市为例，对其市域范围内的重要生态功能区进行了区域划分。     

用物元分析进行水质环境监测优化布点的研究

本文首次提出利用物元分析对水质环境监测优化布点的新方法。在确定了最佳和最次理想点基础上，建立了标准事物和节域事物的物元矩阵。该法具有计算简便、分析合理和容易推广的优点。     

Asymptotics in adaptive cluster sampling

In this article we consider asymptotic properties of the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators under the adaptive cluster sampling variants obtained by selecting the initial sample by simple random sampling without replacement and by unequal probability sampling with replacement. We develop an asymptotic framework, which basically assumes that the number of units in the initial sample, as well as the number of units and networks in the population tend to infinity, but that the network sizes are bounded. Using this framework we prove that under each of the two variants of adaptive sampling above mentioned, both the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz types of estimators are design-consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. In addition we show that the ordinary estimators of their variances are also design-consistent estimators.     

围生期双酚A暴露对子代大鼠脾脏免疫功能的影响

为了研究围生期双酚A(BPA)暴露对子代脾脏免疫功能的影响,选择F344大鼠,按体重随机分为对照、低、中、高4个剂量组(BPA暴露剂量分别为0、4、40、400mg·kg-1·d-1),从雌鼠妊娠第0天开始至子鼠出生后30天,每天灌胃染毒1次,观察子鼠脾脏组织形态学的变化,并采用实时定量PCR检测IL-2、IL-12、IFN-γ、TNF-α4种细胞因子mRNA表达的改变.结果表明,1)与对照组相比,低剂量组子鼠脾重、脾脏指数均显著增加(p<0.05),体重无显著变化(p>0.05);中剂量组子鼠脾脏指数显著增加(p<0.05),体重和脾重无显著变化(p>0.05);高剂量组子鼠体重、脾重均显著降低(p<0.05),脾脏指数无显著变化(p>0.05).2)与对照组相比,各暴露组子鼠脾脏IL-2、IL-12、IFN-γ、TNF-α4种细胞因子mRNA表达均显著降低(p<0.01).以上结果提示,BPA可能能够透过胎盘屏障并通过乳汁传递给子代,降低子代的机体免疫功能.     

Inclusion of phone use while driving data in predicting distraction-affected crashes

Introduction: Given the tremendous number of lives lost or injured, distracted driving is an important safety area to study. With the widespread use of cellphones, phone use while driving has become the most common distracted driving behavior. Although researchers have developed safety performance functions (SPFs) for various crash types, SPFs for distraction-affected crashes are rarely studied in the literature. One possible reason is the lack of critical distracted behavior information in the commonly used safety data (i.e., roadway inventory, traffic, and crash counts). Recently, the frequency of phone use while driving (referred to as phone use data) is recorded by mobile application companies and has become available to safety researchers. The primary objective of this study is to examine if phone use data can potentially predict distracted-affected crashes. Method: The authors first integrated phone use data with roadway inventory, traffic, and crash data in Texas. Then, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was applied to assess the significance of the feature - phone use while driving - for predicting the number of distraction-affected crashes on a road segment. Further, this study developed two SPFs for distraction-affected crashes with and without the phone use data, separately. Both SPFs were assessed in terms of model fitting and prediction performances. Results: RF results rank the frequency of phone use as an important factor contributing to the number of distraction-affected crashes. Performance evaluations indicated that the inclusion of phone use data in the SPFs consistently improved both fitting and prediction abilities to predict distracted-affected crashes. Practical Applications: The phone use data provide new insights into the safety analyses of distraction-affected crashes, which cannot be achieved by only using the conventional roadway inventory and crash data. Therefore, safety researchers and practitioners are encouraged to incorporate the emerging data sources in reducing distraction-affected crashes.     

环境监测在环境影响评价中的影响分析

环境监测贯穿于整个环境影响评价体系中,环境影响评价中的评价初期、建设期、运行期以及后评价期,均由环境监测数据来支撑结果,是环境影响评价的技术基础,同时具有较强的监督功能。     

Ecological and ethological characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sylvia</Emphasis> warbler colonies in patchy habitats on the courland spit,Baltic Sea

Territorial and nesting behavior of Sylvia warblers in a patchy environment has been studied. The results show that shortage of nesting sites and consequent high population density result in acute social strain. Under such conditions, changes are observed in species-specific forms of this behavior, which provide for the maximum possible realization of individual reproductive potential.     

阜新市生态地质环境质量模糊综合评价

生态地质环境质量评价,实为生态地质环境的适宜性评价。本文以地貌类型、森林覆盖率、人口密度等16个指标为主要影响因子,确定了生态地质环境质量评价指标的单因素评价模型和评价指标体系。采用模糊数学方法,对阜新市生态地质环境质量进行了综合评价。结果表明阜新地区生态地质环境质量总体良好。经验证,定量评价与定性评价结果较吻合,证明该套基于模糊综合评判技术的生态地质环境质量的定量评价是切实可行的．结论是可信的。     

深部孤岛工作面区段煤柱冲击地压的试验研究

以冲击启动理论为基础,结合覆岩空间结构思想,采用相似模拟试验方法,研究了孤岛工作面上覆岩层空间结构特点及采动围岩应力场的分布、变化规律,进一步探讨了孤岛工作面区段煤柱冲击地压发生机理。结果表明,两侧充分开采的孤岛工作面上覆岩层呈"C"型覆岩空间结构,工作面承受上部岩层及两侧采空区上覆岩层转移过来的部分岩层重量,在工作面两侧形成应力集中区域,导致采动围岩应力场达到极限平衡状态,该集中应力可视为采动围岩近场极限平衡系统的静载荷。孤岛工作面开采过程中"C"型覆岩空间结构逐渐演化形成"W"型空间结构,极限平衡系统静载荷发生转移和改变,最终由上下区段煤柱全部承担上覆岩层重量,系统载荷增至最大,处于临界失稳状态。"W"型覆岩空间结构大面积失稳,为系统提供了外动载荷,系统在动载荷的扰动下突破平衡极限,从而发生区段煤柱冲击。最后,基于孤岛工作面应力分布规律确定了区段煤柱的合理尺寸。     

基于城市面板数据的PM2.5对公共健康的影响

基于Grossman健康生产函数,利用2008~2017年全国280个城市的面板数据,以PM_2.5为空气污染的代表指标,探讨中国空气污染与公共健康之间的动态关系,考虑到公共健康的空间效应,采用空间计量模型进行实证研究.结果表明,在未考虑空间效应的情况下,PM_2.5浓度每增加1%,城市总人口死亡率增加0.040%;考虑空间效应后,PM_2.5浓度每增加1%,城市总人口死亡率增加0.0606%.PM_2.5污染对公共健康具有显著的负面影响,由于存在空间溢出效应,PM_2.5污染对城市公共健康水平的影响程度增加,表明忽视空间相关性的存在,会低估PM_2.5污染对公众健康的影响;而经济发展水平的提高以及产业结构的调整对公共健康有较强的改善作用.