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981.
小样本感度试验方法   总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1  
提出了一种用于炸药及火工品感度试验的小样本方法。此方法较之传统的Bruceton升降法(估计方差一般需要30 个以上的试件,而且估计出的方差往往偏小),可以在少于30 个试件的小样本的条件下,对方差进行估计,而且估计精度高。建立了高置信度、高可靠度的P发火刺激量置信限公式,该公式可以综合利用当前试验数据和以往经验数据,从而仅需少量当前试验,便可达到Bruceton 升降法采用30 个以上试件方能达到的精度,大大节省了试验的费用及时间。大量的MonteCarlo 模拟试验及实例分析都进一步证明了上述结论。  相似文献   
982.
上海粘土流变性质及地面沉降问题初步研究(一)   总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1  
报导了作者早先时候所做的有关上海地区粘土流变性质实验研究结果和地面沉降问题的初步分析,简要评述了当时已有的有关文献,介绍了试验方法,并指出了试验中有重要影响的问题,给出了一些详细的试验结果,发现瞬间塑性变形间性变形还大,不容忽视。  相似文献   
983.
What do significance tests really tell us about the environment?   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
Routine application of significance tests does not extract the maximum information from environmental data and can lead to misleading conclusions. Reasons leading to this are: a significant result can often be reached merely by collecting enough samples; a statistically significant result is not necessarily practically significant; and reports of the presence or absence of statistically significant differences for multiple tests are not comparable unless identical sample sizes are used. These problems are demonstrated by application to pH data for grazed and retired fields, and by discussion of significance tests used in recent US regulations for groundwater quality. The advantages of equivalence tests, where the tester must state the difference of practical difference, are discussed and applied to the field pH problem. We recommend that environmental managers and scientists pay more attention to statistical power and decide on what is a practical difference. Confidence intervals for the size of the differences, accompanied where necessary by equivalence tests, are the preferred means of addressing the question: “is there a difference of practical significance?”  相似文献   
984.
何平  蒋祖斌 《四川环境》1993,12(3):43-45
试验研究表明,West-Gaeke法制定大气SO2,空白试验值不仅随显色温度增高而增高,而且随PRA浓度增高而增高。尤其,在20±2℃时,PRA浓度>0.016%时,校准曲线斜率比方法规定值偏高;称取PRA0.100g提纯后使用,在30℃时,回归斜率比方法规定值偏低。本文提出了对方法的补充意见。  相似文献   
985.
ABSTRACT. Recent advances in water quality modelling have pointed out the need for stochastic models to simulate the probabilistic nature of water quality. However, often all that is needed is an estimate of the uncertainty in predicting water quality variables. First order analysis is a simple method of providing an estimate in the uncertainty in a deterministic model due to uncertain parameters. The method is applied to the simplified Streeter-Phelps equations for DO and BOD; a more complete Monte Carlo simulation is used to check the accuracy of the results. The first order analysis is found to give accurate estimates of means and variances of DO and BOD up to travel times exceeding the critical time. Uncertainty in travel time and the BOD decay constant are found to be most important for small travel times; uncertainty in the reaeration coefficient dominates near the critical time. Uncertainty in temperature was found to be a negligible source of uncertainty in DO for all travel times.  相似文献   
986.
基于GM(1,1)模型的铁路行车事故预测   总被引:1,自引:5,他引:1  
铁路行车事故的发生具有偶然性 ,但可利用预测理论的方法加以预测。笔者简述了灰色理论中GM(1,1)预测模型的建模过程和精度检验的方法及步骤 ,在某铁路分局 1995~ 2 0 0 2年间的铁路行车事故统计的基础上 ,应用GM(1,1)预测模型预测了该铁路分局 2 0 0 4年的铁路行车事故发生趋势 ,经精度检验表明 ,模型的精度等级合格 ,其预测结果为铁路行车事故的防范和降低事故损失提供了指导和科学依据。  相似文献   
987.
阐述了环境监测数据审核程序与内容,对监测数据的审核方法进行了综述。  相似文献   
988.
ABSTRACT: This paper presents hydraulic conductivities of streambeds measured in three rivers in south‐central Nebraska: the Platte, Republican, and Little Blue Rivers. Unlike traditional permeameter tests in streams that determine only the vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kv), the extended permeameter methods used in this study can measure K in both vertical and horizontal as well as oblique directions. As a result, the anisotropy of channel sediments can be determined from streambed tests of similar sediment volumes. Sandy streambeds with occasional silt/clay layers exist in the Republican and Platte Rivers. The average Kv values range from about 15 to 47 m/day for the sandy streambed and about 1.6 m/day for the silt/clay layers. Statistical analyses indicated that the Kv values of sand and gravel in the Platte and Republican Rivers essentially have the same mean; but the Kv values from the Little Blue River have a statistically different mean. Kv is about four times smaller than the horizontal hydraulic conductivity (Kh) for the top 40 cm of sandy streambed. Measured Kh values of the sandy streambed are in the same magnitude as the Kh of the alluvial aquifer determined using pumping tests. The smaller Kv value in the whole aquifer is the result of interbedded layers of silt and clay within the sand and gravel sediments.  相似文献   
989.
ABSTRACT: Considerable advancements have been made in the development of analytical solutions for predicting the effects of pumping wells on adjacent streams and rivers. However, these solutions have not been sufficiently evaluated against field data. The objective of this research is to evaluate the predictive performance of recently proposed analytical solutions for unsteady stream depletion using field data collected during a stream/aquifer analysis test at the Tamarack State Wildlife Area in eastern Colorado. Two primary stream/aquifer interactions exist at the Tamarack site: (1) between the South Platte River and the alluvial aquifer and (2) between a backwater stream and the alluvial aquifer. A pumping test is performed next to the backwater stream channel. Drawdown measured in observation wells is matched to predictions by recently proposed analytical solutions to derive estimates of aquifer and streambed parameters. These estimates are compared to documented aquifer properties and field measured streambed conductivity. The analytical solutions are capable of estimating reasonable values of both aquifer and streambed parameters with one solution capable of simultaneously estimating delayed aquifer yield and stream flow recharge. However, for long term water management, it is reasonable to use simplified analytical solutions not concerned with early‐time delayed yield effects. For this site, changes in the water level in the stream during the test and a varying water level profile at the beginning of the pumping test influence the application of the analytical solutions.  相似文献   
990.
水泥土搅拌桩复合地基静载试验检测法的安全度分析   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
在检测水泥土搅拌桩复合地基的承载力能否达到设计要求时 ,最常用的方法是单桩静载试验法和复合地基静载试验法。工程实践中发现 ,采用这两种静载试验方法得到的检测结果存在较大差异。笔者根据水泥土搅拌桩的基本特性 ,结合工程实例 ,对这两种静载试验检测结果存在的差异及其安全度进行比较分析 ,得出单桩静载试验法结果的安全度高于复合地基试验法结果的结论 ,因此 ,提出了一些合理化建议  相似文献   
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