森林火险的序贯分析初探

本文利用森林着火危险度指标属于正态分布的特点,根据正态型序贯分析的原理,提出了确定林火危险性的序贯分析方法;建立了长白山林区5个站点森林火险的“安全域”与“危险域”的模型;并以东岗(长白山西坡)为例,作了正态型序贯分析全过程的应用示例。结果证明,利用正态型序贯分析来确定林火的等级是可行的、可靠的,具有实用价值。     

喀斯特石山地区社会经济与生态环境可持续发展系统研究:以桂西北为例

本建立了广西西北部喀斯特石山地区可持续发展的系统动力学模型。并用DYNAMO程序预测了未来20年桂西北地区的人口、工业、农业、第三产业，生态环境，土地资源，社会总产值，人均国民收人等的动态变化趋势，结果显示，该地区由于人口，工业资产增加使物质和能源消耗增长太快，而对污染治理的投入又太少，导致桂西北地区的生存环境质量下降，因此应当加大对污染治理的投入力度，改善区域环境质量，这是实现息烽县区域可持续发展的关键，根据区域特点探讨了桂西北喀斯特贫困山区的形成演化，提出了可持续发展的途径。     

大清河水系滨岸带入侵草本植物分布特征及影响因素

在雄安新区建设大背景下,保障大清河水系生物安全十分重要。为研究大清河水系入侵植物分布规律,探讨影响入侵植物分布的驱动因子,对大清河水系河湖滨岸带开展植被调查,识别滨岸带入侵植物,判定物种的入侵等级,分析物种入侵分布与环境因子和人类活动因素之间的相关性,并提出雄安新区面临的植物入侵风险及防范措施。结果表明：大清河水系有24种入侵植物,其中苋科和菊科合计占54.2%,一年生物种、无意引入物种分别占83.3%、62.5%,原产地为美洲的占62.5%,反枝苋、鬼针草、圆叶牵牛、鳢肠、大狼杷草、苘麻6种植物为流域内广布种;入侵植物种数和入侵性在流域中游的拒马河上游房山山区段、流域下游的牤牛河霸州城市段以及100 m高程分界线附近的山区—平原交接区明显高于其他区域;人类活动是影响植物入侵程度的主要因素,路网密度、建设用地面积占比越高,越有利于入侵植物的分布与扩散;大清河水系植物入侵程度尚可控,但需要在雄安新区建设过程中重视植物入侵定居及扩散风险,早做防范。

     

西北干旱区流域水污染特征与控制策略—以宁夏清水河流域为例

以宁夏境内黄河最大的一级支流清水河流域为例,分析重点断面水质、水环境容量及各控制单元污染负荷特征,并提出有针对性的污染控制策略。结果表明：2015—2018年清水河三营国控断面水质无法稳定达到GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》Ⅳ类水质标准,泉眼山断面化学需氧量（COD）存在超Ⅳ类水质标准风险。流域水环境容量COD为592.83~1 238.25 t/a,氨氮为51.99~193.60 t/a,总磷（TP）为5.02~12.85 t/a;流域平水期污染负荷入河量COD为15 661.1 t/a,氨氮为1 670.2 t/a,TP为784.5 t/a,分别是平水期水环境容量（COD为940.57 t/a,氨氮为114.64 t/a,TP为8.81 t/a）的16、14和89倍。固原控制单元单位面积污染负荷入河量最高（COD为3.04 t/a,氨氮为0.22 t/a,TP为0.06 t/a）,工业源与城镇生活源污染问题突出,中卫控制单元总污染负荷入河量最高（COD为 6 738.45 t/a,氨氮为868.88 t/a,TP为218.12 t/a）,城镇生活源污染较严重,而吴忠控制单元禽畜养殖污染较严重。基于水质目标和各单元的污染特征,建议固原控制单元加强工业企业污水回收利用、提高城镇污水处理能力,中卫控制单元重点关注污水收集处理设施建设与改造升级,吴忠控制单元在规模化养殖场推行禽畜粪污集中处理与回用。

     

多重水质评价方法在地下水水质评价中的对比研究—以北京市朝阳区为例

目前地下水水质评价方法众多,选择合适的评价方法对地下水的管理与利用具有重要意义。以北京市朝阳区2020年枯水期采集的地下水水样检测结果为基础,利用改进的层次分析法、单因子指数法和综合污染指数法对地下水水质进行评价,并对比3种方法评价结果的准确性以及存在的不合理之处。结果表明：1）3种方法的水质评价结果差异较大,改进的层次分析法的水质评价结果最优,单因子指数法的评价结果最差,综合污染指数法的评价结果与其他方法的一致性最高;2）在进行水质评价时可优先选择综合污染指数法,单因子指数法适用于水质要求较高或超标污染物少的水体,改进的层次分析法适用于有多种污染物超标的水体;3）为进一步确定3种方法对地下水水质评价结果的准确性,将3种方法的评价结果与可靠性分析结果进行对比,发现改进的层次分析法、单因子指数法和综合污染指数法与可靠性分析的水质评价结果相同的占比分别为90.48%、42.86%、47.62%。因此,在对地下水水质进行综合评价时,可使用改进的层次分析法。

     

新发展阶段规划环境影响评价开展范围的几点建议

为满足当前管理需求,在厘清我国现行规划体系构成、类型及相互关系的基础上,系统梳理了空间规划、区域规划、专项规划内容特征与环境影响特点,结合近20年规划环评实践,提出规划环评开展范围调整建议。对于空间规划,建议国家级总体规划不纳入规划环评体系,省级总体规划编写环境影响篇章或说明,市、县、乡镇级总体规划编写环境影响报告书。对于区域规划,建议指导性大区域规划编写环境影响篇章或说明,非指导性大区域规划及新区、产业园区等的开发建设规划编写环境影响报告书。对于专项规划,建议将自然资源开发、能源、交通、水利、农业（含畜牧业、渔业）、工业等专项规划纳入规划环评体系,指导性规划编制环境影响篇章或说明,非指导性规划编制环境影响报告书。

     

产业园区外存量工业用地环境准入管控研究—以上海市为例

为探索在新产业布局及发展形势下的产业园区外存量工业用地环境准入分类管控模式,采用空间叠图分析和承载力评估方法,基于“三线一单”分区管控要求对上海市产业园区外存量工业用地的空间布局约束、资源环境承载和环境风险防控进行评估。综合评估结果、新法规要求和规划方向的指引,梳理典型区环境准入管理的试点经验,提出以下建议：生态环境及产业、规划相关部门对产业园区外存量工业用地的现状及规划实施动态排摸;结合各地块资源环境特征、规划发展意向等因素,对不同规划导向的地块实施差异化分类管控;针对近中期保留的产业园区外存量工业用地,通过开展区域环评强化环境准入。

     

关于完善规划环境影响跟踪评价制度的思考

规划环境影响跟踪评价制度是规划环评制度的重要组成部分,完善跟踪评价制度对健全以环境影响评价制度为主体的预防体系具有重要意义。在分析我国规划环境影响跟踪评价制度与实践进展的基础上,系统梳理了现行制度存在的启动情形不明、程序亟待规范、约束力不足等问题,并从按照审查意见要求启动跟踪评价、保障生态环境部门知情权与建议权、强化违反跟踪评价义务的法律后果等方面提出对策建议,为《中华人民共和国环境影响评价法》的修订完善提供参考。

     

Factors associated with driving under the influence of alcohol

Objective: This study examined the risk factors of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) among drivers of specific vehicle categories (DSC). On the basis of this research, the variables related to DUI and involvement in traffic crashes were defined. The analysis was conducted for car drivers, bicyclists, motorcyclists, bus drivers, and truck drivers.

Method: The research sample included drivers involved in traffic crashes on the territory of Serbia in 2016 (60,666). Two types of analyses were conducted in this study. Logistic regression established the correlation between DUI and DSC and the The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Multi-criteria decision making) method was applied to consider the scoring and explore the potential for the prevalence of DUI on the basis of 2 data sets (DUI and non DUI).

Results: The study results showed that driver error and male drivers were the 2 most significant risk factors for DUI, with the highest scores and potential for prevalence. The nonuse of restraint systems, driver experience, and driver age are the factors with a significant prediction of involvement in an accident and an insignificant prediction of DUI.

Conclusions: Following the development of the logistic prediction models for DUI drivers, testing of the model was conducted for 3 control driver groups: Car, motorcycle, and bicycle. The prediction model with a probability greater than 50% showed that 77% of car drivers were under the influence of alcohol. Similarly, the prediction percentage for motorcyclists and bicyclists amounted to 71 and 67%, respectively. The recommendation of the study is that drivers whose DUI probability is above 50% should be potentially suspected of DUI. The results of this study can help to understand the problem of DUI among specific driver categories and detect DUI drivers, with the aim of creating successful traffic safety policy.     

Institutional, Legal, and Economic Instruments in Ghana's Environmental Policy

The environmental situation in Ghana is characterized by desertification, land degradation, deforestation, soil erosion, and inadequate water supply in the northern regions of the country. The population as a whole is growing at a rate of 3% per annum, with even greater urban growth rates, due to rural out-migration. Large parts of the coastal zone in the south are rapidly developing to become one large suburbanized area. Water quality is particularly threatened in the urban and industrialized areas, which are mainly located in the southern part of the country. The coastal lagoons and coastal waters are moderately to heavily polluted. Erosion extends along the whole Ghanaian coast with excesses, for example, in the Keta area, where during the last century over 90% of the original buildings have been washed awayby the sea. The obvious environmental consequences of the mining sector are illustrative of the environmental threats caused by a fast growing industry and industrializing agriculture, in a country where environmental policy is only in its formative years. Desertification, food insecurity and coastal erosion all contribute to an increasing number of environmental refugees. Environmental policy in Ghana is a post-Rio phenomenon. Environmental laws, a Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology, an advisory National Committee for the Implementation of Agenda 21, and a fully mandated environmental administration have been established. This administration advocates a progressive attitude towards environmental legislation and points out the specific utility of economic and legal instruments in environmental management in this relatively fast developing country. The choice of instruments for environmental management is increasingly influenced by the specific state of African environmental and technological capacity and by a call for the recognition of the role of traditional customs in nature conservation. This African perspective on environmental management is further intensified by an unmet need for regional, transboundary cooperation in the West African subcontinent. This specific West African context calls for an elaboration of an effective capacity-building program for environmental management in the area.