安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

Hydromorphological and socio-cultural assessment of urban rivers to promote nature-based solutions in Jarabacoa,Dominican Republic

In Latin America and the Caribbean, river restoration projects are increasing, but many lack strategic planning and monitoring. We tested the applicability of a rapid visual social–ecological stream assessment method for restoration planning, complemented by a citizen survey on perceptions and uses of blue and green infrastructure. We applied the method at three urban streams in Jarabacoa (Dominican Republic) to identify and prioritize preferred areas for nature-based solutions. The method provides spatially explicit information for strategic river restoration planning, and its efficiency makes it suitable for use in data-poor contexts. It identifies well-preserved, moderately altered, and critically impaired areas regarding their hydromorphological and socio-cultural conditions, as well as demands on green and blue infrastructure. The transferability of the method can be improved by defining reference states for assessing the hydromorphology of tropical rivers, refining socio-cultural parameters to better address river services and widespread urban challenges, and balancing trade-offs between ecological and social restoration goals.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01565-3.     

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01393-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

疫情下医疗废物的处置现状分析

2019年新冠疫情席卷全球,在疫情环境下,医疗废物大幅增多,全国各大城市纷纷出现医疗废物处置不当的现象。本文对国内外现状分析,在认知、设施、管理和监督四个方面发现存在一定的问题,通过加强教育、加大储备、完善机制和改善监管的建议,为提升医疗废物应急处置能力提供参考。     

黄河岸边土壤中类二(口恶)英类多氯联苯污染现状及风险

研究了全黄河范围内40个国家重点控制断面岸边土壤样品中类二噁英类多氯联苯(dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls,DL-PCBs)的污染现状,并利用毒性当量法和健康风险评价模型定量描述黄河岸边土壤中DL-PCBs对沿岸居民的毒性风险、致癌风险和非致癌风险.结果表明,黄河岸边土壤中各采样断面岸边土壤中ΣDL-PCBs的含量(以dw计,下同)范围为:0.37~7.17 ng·g~(-1),均值为0.38 ng·g~(-1).毒性风险计算表明,黄河岸边土壤中DL-PCBs的毒性当量范围为:0.00~30.31 pg·g~(-1),均值是13.63 pg·g~(-1),基本不会对沿岸居民产生毒性风险;健康风险模型计算表明,黄河岸边土壤中DL-PCBs对儿童和成人的致癌风险、非致癌风险均未超过美国EPA规定的限值,基本不会产生明显的健康风险.相比而言,黄河中游沿岸居民更易受到DL-PCBs危害.     

应用相平衡分配法建立湘江衡阳段沉积物重金属质量基准

采集湘江衡阳段29个站点的表层沉积物样品,测定沉积物中4种重金属(Cu、Pb、Zn和Cd)含量及赋存形态、以及孔隙水中重金属含量,根据相平衡分配法的基本理论,考虑参与沉积物-水相平衡分配的重金属组成,实测法计算重金属的沉积物-水相平衡分配系数(Kp),分别引用美国EPA制定保护水生生物不受重金属慢性毒性影响的基本连续浓度(CCC)和我国地表水环境质量标准(GB 3838-2002)Ⅰ类水质标准,建立两种湘江衡阳段沉积物重金属质量基准(SQC)进行对比分析,其中基于美国CCC建立的湘江衡阳段沉积物重金属质量基准与国内外研究成果相比可比性较好,4种重金属(Cu、Pb、Zn和Cd)的SQC值分别为64.62、55.57、1 360.40和2.34μg.g-1,此SQC具有保护长期生活于沉积物中的底栖生物不受重金属慢性毒性影响的意义.通过单因子评价法将湘江衡阳段沉积物中重金属总量与沉积物质量基准值(SQC)进行比较,结果表明,湘江衡阳段沉积物中Cd和Pb含量水平对底栖生物具有较大的慢性毒性影响,Cd污染不容忽视.     

基于LiDAR、SRTM DEM的祁连山黑河流域十一冰川2000-2012年物质平衡估算

以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川为例,利用机载三维激光扫描数据（Light Detection And Ranging, LiDAR）和SRTM DEM数据,在LiDAR点云数据预处理、高程数据配准、校正、误差评估的基础上,建立基于大地测量法的冰川物质平衡计算流程。表明：2000-2012年十一冰川冰面高程变化为-7.47±0.92βm,变化率为-0.62±0.08 m·a^-1,估算十一冰川的年均物质平衡为 -0.53±0.07βm w.e.,累积物质平衡为-6.35±0.78βm w.e.,折合水当量约为（330.4±40.8）×10^4βm³;与其他典型监测冰川物质平衡进行对比和分析,论证了估算结果的可靠性;LiDAR数据具有非常高的精度和空间分辨率,目前关于其在冰川物质平衡研究中的应用很少,论文尝试将其应用于冰川物质平衡变化研究中,具有广阔的发展前景。     

成都市污染边界层高度的演变特征分析

基于2014年1月21日至2月5日成都市人民南路四段逐时PM_(2.5)质量浓度、大气能见度资料以及同期Mie散射激光雷达探测数据,遵循消光系数与细颗粒物质量浓度之间的关系,探讨污染边界层高度的演变特征。结果表明:污染时段内的污染边界层高度偏低,平均为221m;污染边界层高度与地面PM_(2.5)浓度的变化具有明显相关性,但污染边界层高度改变在前,地面PM_(2.5)浓度响应在后;污染边界层高度的日变化表现为单峰单谷型,峰值和谷值分别出现在08:00时和14:00时前后。     

青藏高原土壤柴油降解菌的筛选及降解实验研究

青藏高原北麓河地区土壤为典型的低温土壤环境,夏季高温季节表层土壤(5 cm处)温度仅为9℃,中层(20 cm处)为7.5℃,而40 cm处仅为4℃左右。土壤高温季节为7月中旬至9月上旬,而10月至来年6月土壤日平均温度下降为0℃以下。针对青藏高原低温土壤环境,在北麓河试验现场进行人工模拟柴油污染,16个月后采集污染土样,进行土著低温菌的复合筛选,柴油菌的筛选驯化温度为10℃。经过4次转接复合培养驯化后,菌液中微生物数量可达2.7×1012CFU/mL。筛选后的柴油降解菌90%以上为杆状菌,长度为2~3μm,少见球菌,其直径约为0.5μm。通过柴油摇瓶模拟降解实验,17 d后柴油去除率可达到62%。研究为青藏高原低温条件下的土壤柴油污染土著微生物修复提供了研究基础。