市场转型对中国环境治理结构的影响——国家污染物减排指标的分配机制研究

国家统计局数据显示,2006年我国节能减排任务均远未实现国家"十一五"规划开局之年的目标,特别是主要污染物排放总量不降反升.本文在分析了中国环境治理体系和国家"十一五"规划主要污染物减排指标分配机制的基础上,研究了市场转型对中国环境治理结构的影响.中国的市场转型可以抽象为以"分权让利"、"市场化"和"工业化"为主要特征的结构演进过程.文中提出,中国市场转型过程对环境治理结构造成了重大影响,而环境治理的各项措施反过来也应与市场转型相适应.当前中国主要污染物减排指标没有实现达标的重要原因是国家污染物减排指标的分配机制无法适应我国市场转型的要求.为此,本文提出一系列国家主要污染物减排指标分配机制的政策建议.     

The Impact of Increased Environmental Stochasticity Due to Climate Change on the Dynamics of Asiatic Wild Ass

Abstract:  Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (≥15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.     

珠江上游少数民族县域经济活动的累积环境效应研究--以贵州三都水族自治县为例

为了探索珠江上游少数民族区域经济活动的累积环境效应与生态安全，我们选择三都水族自治县作为定位研究基地．对建国以来区域内经济活动变迁进行历史、现状研究和综合评估，揭示历史时期发展政策、发展模式、重大经济活动等人为扰动因素在区域生态环境系统退化过程中的作用．评估少数民族经济活动的累积环境效应与生态安全。     

资源型城市接续主导产业的选择研究--以白银市为例

本文论述了资源型城市接续主导产业选择的重要性和选择原则，并以白银市为例，利用综合评价值法广告牌了白银市的主导产业和优势产业，然后用特尔斐法对白银市的接续主导产业进行了选择，选择结果比较符合白银市的实际情况。     

Mechanisms of changes in population numbers of Caucasian red deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cervus elaphus maral</Emphasis>) in the northwestern Caucasus

Mechanisms of changes in the numbers of red deer in the Caucasian State Biosphere Reserve (the northwestern Caucasus) were studied from 1958 to 2004 using simulation models developed on the basis of concepts concerning the combined effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors. The results show that changes in population numbers are accounted for by larger (more numerous) local subunits, with small groups remaining relatively stable. In the periods of depression, such a mechanism provides for the maintenance of the spatial population structure.     

湖北野生食果资源特点及其开发途径

野生食果为营养丰富的食用资源植物。在深入调查的基础上，分析了湖北野生食果资源的特点，提出了野生食果资源开发的对策以及产品深加工的途径，为野生食果资源的开发利用打下了坚实的基础。     

Population dynamics of the bank vole as studied using sequence functions

Sequence functions were used to construct a simulation model of the long-term population dynamics of the bank vole in Karelia. The mechanisms of population reproduction control affect the population size if it is greater than 1 and 4 ind./100 trap-days in spring and autumn, respectively.     

1978年长江中下游地区夏季大旱及其影响

本文利用相对距平和Z—指数为指标分析了1978年长江中下游地区的夏季大旱,并着重研究了干旱对该地区水资源和农业生产的影响。     

Persistence and mobility of 2,4-D in unsaturated soil zone under winter wheat crop in sub-tropical region of India

The present study was undertaken to determine the persistence and mobility of 2,4-dichlorophenoxy acetic acid (2,4-D) in unsaturated soil zone under real field conditions for the wheat crop in Roorkee, India. Three experimental plots were chosen in the agricultural field itself to represent the real field conditions in the study area and the potential movement and persistence of herbicide 2,4-D was investigated under three different irrigation treatments. The presence of herbicide along with soil water content was determined in soil at different depths at a temporal scale. The movement of the herbicide was also simulated numerically by solving the coupled soil water content movement and mass transport equations using HYDRUS-1D. The measured soil water content trends and the 2,4-D concentration profiles showed a good agreement with the numerically simulated results. The maximum effect of the herbicide was primarily retained up to 15 cm of the soil profile. The current existing dosage of 0.5 kg ha⁻¹ of pesticide was found to be safe to avoid soil contamination as no residue of 2,4-D was traced at the end of the wheat crop season in any of the plots. Higher concentrations of 2,4-D were also simulated numerically and the simulated results showed that the safe dosage of pesticide application would depend on irrigation treatments.     

长江三角洲城市旅游与城市发展协调性及影响因素

城市旅游业作为城市服务业的重要部门,是推动城市发展的后续动力。运用信息熵赋权法和TOPSIS法相结合,从经济水平、社会发展、公共交通、城市绿化、环境保护、旅游发展6个方面对长江三角洲2003年和2008年的城市旅游与城市发展的协调性进行分析,借助ArcGIS软件的空间聚类法分析了城市旅游与城市发展协调水平的空间格局及演变,最后探讨影响因素。结果表明:长江三角洲16城市的城市旅游协调水平在研究期间相对稳定,具体可被划分为4个等级,第一、二等级城市数量较少,得分显著高于第三、四等级城市。城市旅游协调水平空间上存在较大差异,北部城市得分高于南部城市,基本格局保持稳定,呈现以上海、南京、杭州三个城市为核心向外围边缘城市的空间衰减。产业发展、城市旅游发展模式、城市旅游重大项目投资、区位条件是长江三角洲城市旅游协调水平产生空间分化的主要影响因素,可制定以城市旅游发展为手段的方式推动城市发展,促进区域均衡发展。