地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的检验及其影响分析

本文以山东省设区市地方政府土地出让行为作为研究对象,通过构建空间面板模型,从价格和数量两个维度,全面检验了地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让的策略互动行为,并利用空间计量工具,分析了地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的影响。研究发现:(1)山东省内地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量存在显著的策略互动,地方政府的商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量,不仅会受城市自身情况的约束,还会受邻近地区地方政府土地出让行为的影响,外在表现为你涨我跌、你增我减的反向变动格局;(2)由于未考虑策略互动,传统计量经济学非空间面板模型对地方政府土地出让行为影响因素的估计普遍存在偏误。对于商服用地出让价格,第三产业比重、人口密度的影响分别被低估了33.33%、13.08%;对于住宅用地出让价格,人口城镇化率、人均可支配收入的影响分别被低估了20.00%、9.98%,人口密度的影响被高估了32.34%;对于工业用地出让价格,人均外商直接投资的影响被高估了3.68%;对于工业用地出让量,第二产业比重、地均工业产值的影响分别被高估了13.95%、31.36%;(3)地方政府土地出让行为的影响因素普遍存在明显的空间溢出效应。对于商服用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口密度;对于住宅用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口城镇化率、人口密度、人均可支配收入;对于工业用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人均外商直接投资、地均固定资产投资;对于工业用地出让量,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为第二产业比重、地均固定资产投资。     

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and China’s implementation

The concept of sustainable development has experienced great development and change at different levels of theoretical connotation and practical implementation since 1960s and 1970s when it was first proposed. People’s understanding of the relationship between economy, society, and environment has been continuously deepened over the years. When it came to the end of 2015, it is necessary to examine the results of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals on sustainable development, and at the same time, the post-2015 framework and guidance on sustainable development at the global level were to be made, including the ideas, action plans, key areas that would guide the global sustainable development. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has developed a 5P theoretical framework of being people-centered, global environmental security, sustained economic prosperity, social justice and harmony and partnership promotion, including a political declaration, 17 overarching goals and 169 specific targets, specific ways of implementation, as well as the follow-up. It is the road map to achieve global sustainable development and meet the requirements of the millennium development goals. This paper summarizes the understanding of the concept of sustainable development from its origin, its significant development, to the proposition and development of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and its strategic impact on China.     

基于DEA模型的区域生态环境建设绩效评价——以江苏省苏州市为例

选取生态系统服务价值、生态绿当量、人均生态足迹赤字和环境质量综合指数作为区域生态环境质量表征指标,借助DEA模型对区域生态环境建设过程中劳动力投入、资金投入、技术投入和资源投入的绩效进行评价,结果表明:(1)苏州市10年来生态环境建设总体而言绩效良好,DEA有效年份占30%,弱有效年份占20%,无效年份占50%,并且无效年份的效率指数都在0.97以上;(2)导致苏州市最近5年生态环境建设DEA无效的原因主要是乔资源投入不足,生态用地成为区域生态环境建设刚性约束;(3)通过调整生态环境建设要素投入比例,各种生态环境指标值都将有所提高,区域生态环境质量也将显著改善;(4)地区生态环境建设绩效下降还受地区人口数量增加、人均生态占用增长、生态环境累积效应影响.最后从促进区域社会经济与生态环境协调发展的角度提出相关建议.     

Population dynamics of the bank vole as studied using sequence functions

Sequence functions were used to construct a simulation model of the long-term population dynamics of the bank vole in Karelia. The mechanisms of population reproduction control affect the population size if it is greater than 1 and 4 ind./100 trap-days in spring and autumn, respectively.     

Green and compatible industrial development in Western China

Western China has lagged a lot in terms of industrial structure and economic development,compared with the national average.And China announced its target of CO_2 emission reduction,i.e.by 2020,CO_2 emission per GDP will drop by40-45%compared with 2005.The target will be incorporated into China's long-term industrial planning.Against this background,this paper will make a comprehensive examination of the industrial development of Western China,aiming to discover a green and compatible way.First,we analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of regional industrial structure for the period 2000-2010.Second,we try to discover the industrial structure optimization path for Western China by employing the Vector Auto Regression model.Lastly,we try to provide some advice and suggestions for further industrial development in Western China.Our examination shows that further industrial development in Western China should pay full attention to resource conservation and recycling,and develop on a green and compatible path.     

Deposition rates of unattached and attached radon progeny in room with turbulent airflow and ventilation

In this paper deposition rate coefficients for unattached and attached radon progeny were estimated according to a particle deposition model for turbulent indoor airflow described by Zhao and Wu [2006. Modeling particle deposition from fully developed turbulent flow in ventilation duct. Atmos. Environ. 40, 457–466]. The parameter which characterizes turbulent indoor airflow in this model is friction velocity, u*. Indoor ventilation changes indoor airflow and friction velocity and influences deposition rate coefficients. Correlation between deposition and ventilation rate coefficients in the room was determined. It was shown that deposition rate coefficient increases with ventilation rate coefficient and that these parameters of the Jacobi room model cannot be assumed to be independent. The values of deposition rate coefficients were presented as functions of friction velocity and ventilation rate coefficient. If ventilation rate coefficient varies from 0.1 up to 1 h⁻¹, deposition rate coefficients for unattached and attached fractions were estimated to be in the range 3–110 h⁻¹ and 0.015–0.35 h⁻¹, respectively.     

芹菜面源污染防治种植模式综合效益评估

采用问卷调查、层次分析、专家咨询等方法,构建了综合考虑经济效益、产品品质和环境效益3个方面共包括12项指标的芹菜面源污染防治种植模式综合效益评估指标体系,应用该指标体系在巢湖流域开展了由不同施肥方式、是否施用松土促根剂和生物基膜等单项技术组合的不同面源污染防治种植模式效益评估的实证研究。结果表明:经济效益表现最好的是减量施肥+松土促根剂模式,产品品质效益最优的是减量施肥模式,环境效益最好的是有机无机肥混施+松土促根剂+生物基膜模式,综合效益最好的是有机无机肥混施+松土促根剂+生物基膜模式。采用减量施肥和有机无机肥混施模式,同时配合松土促根剂和生物基膜的技术组合可有效提高综合效益。     

固定化脱色菌－活性污泥的脱色性能研究

将所筛选的高效脱色菌群,采用聚集－交联法固定在活性污泥上,形民絮状立体网状微观结构。固定化脱色菌－活性污泥的脱色酶活力较未经固定的活性污泥提高７０％左右。经厌氧条件下处理针织厂印染废水,色度平均去降率为７７．３％,ＣＯＤＣｒ平均去除率为６５．１％。     

基于AQUATOX模型的集装箱养殖尾水净化塘生态系统模拟及调控预测

为解决传统养殖中养殖尾水的环境污染问题,促进池塘养殖可持续发展,基于新建的集装箱式循环水养殖系统,构建了三级养殖尾水净化塘水生态系统模型,对池塘水质、浮游植物及水生动物生物量以及池塘生态系统的演变进行了为期6个月的模拟预测,并设置添加沉水植物和添加低密度滤食性鱼类2种情景模拟。结果表明：水质模拟值的变化趋势与实测值基本一致,模拟值与实测值的平均相对误差为4.98% ~ 23.37%;模拟预测的设定条件下和模拟时段中,池塘生态系统的结构趋于稳定,形成以绿藻为主的藻类群落、以摇蚊和桡足类为主的水生动物群落;在尾水净化塘中,添加沉水植物对氮磷去除效果不明显,但对增加水体中溶解氧质量浓度作用明显,3个池塘溶解氧变化率最大值分别为23.11%、45.39%和77.90%;添加低密度滤食性鱼类有助于浮游植物的生长,3个池塘硅藻生物量的最大增幅为89.80%、47.22%和22.06%,绿藻生物量的最大增幅为76.95%、54.05%和23.29%,蓝藻生物量的最大增幅为45.99%、33.37%和20.30%。综上所述,基于AQUATOX构建串联的尾水净化塘水生态系统模型并模拟培植沉水植物和添加低密度滤食性鱼类的生物处理方法,不仅能够为管理者调整喂养结构提供借鉴与帮助,也可用于调控水生态系统组分,有利于水生态系统功能的恢复和平衡。本研究结果可为管理集装箱式循环水养殖模式的喂养结构、构建尾水净化塘生态系统、改进其他利用生物处理技术处理养殖尾水的养殖模式提供参考。     

简化一维水质模型在突发水污染事故模拟预测中的应用

传统水质模拟预测模型对突发水污染事故事发地的水文、水下地形等资料要求较高,在缺乏相应资料时会影响对水污染事故的可靠预测和预警。为解决问题,亟需建立在应急条件下能快速预测预警的简化水质模型。以传统一维水质模型为基础,通过人工测量河流沿程流速,自动插值获得流场以替代模型中对流场的求解,再求解一维对流扩散方程,以此获得简化的一维水质模拟预测模型。模拟计算结果表明,相对于传统水质模型,简化后一维水质预警模型可快速准确地预测突发水污染事故后污染态势。