Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND EUTROPHICATION ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROPHYLL a IN TAIHU LAKE

Spatial structure analysis and kriging analysis have been identified to be useful tools in illustrating the spatial patterns of variables. Taihu Lake is one of the largest fresh water lakes in China, and has suffered serious eutrophication in recent years due to the rapid economic development and growing environmental pollution in the Taihu Catchment. In this paper, spatial structural analysis, kriging interpolation and eutrophication assessment were carried out for chlorophyll a in the lake. Studies show that spherical model could be applied to fit all experimental variograms. Positive nuggets were observed for three directions except NE–SW direction. The variograms show some anisotropy with anisotropic ratio falling within 1.76. The spatial structural patterns of chlorophyll a in the lake were affected by factors such as distribution of pollution sources, water flow and wind. Two-dimensional ordinary block kriging was applied for interpolation process. An eutrophication assessment map was also made based on a water-quality evaluation standard. Results show that the content of chlorophyll a in Taihu Lake was quite high. The whole lake has suffered serious eutrophication. However, the eutrophic situation varied in space. Higher contents of chlorophyll a appeared mainly in the northern part of the lake.     

A Metamodeling Approach for Integrated Assessment of Air Quality Policies

A method is proposed to build integrated models (also called Metamodels) aimed at quantifying the economic efficiency of air quality policies. This Metamodeling approach is based on the coupling of two complementary models, that operate at different scales in space and time, and which represent the economic and the physical and chemical processes, respectively. The joint consideration of the physico-chemical and techno-economic structure of the pollution control problems permits a comprehensive evaluation of air pollution abatement strategies. The motivating pollution control problems include urban-regional air quality management through efficient energy and traffic control policies. A pilot study, exploiting data collected in the Geneva canton (Switzerland), is used to demonstrate the potential of the approach.     

过氧化聚吡咯/聚乙烯吡咯烷酮修饰碳糊电极测定废水中苯酚

建立了过氧化聚吡咯(OPPy)和聚乙烯吡咯烷酮(PVP)修饰碳糊电极测定废水中苯酚的方法.优化了试验条件,苯酚的氧化峰电流在1.0×10-5 mol/L～1.0×10-3 mol/L之间线性关系良好,检出限为1.0×10-6 mol/L.该电极制作简单,选择性好,测定灵敏度高,精密度与准确度均符合要求.     

用灰色关联度方法进行水污染因子分析

介绍了灰色关联度因子分析方法,以及此法在水污染因子分析中的应用.对于一般监测资料系列短而监测项目却较齐全的情况,应用本法是较适宜的.     

福建省森林固定CO2价值评估

借鉴国内外研究成果,引入“市场逼近系数”,构造森林固定CO2效益经济结构模型,评估福建省森林固定CO2价值,为福建省森林资源的科学管理和资产评估提供了借鉴和参考。     

Potential for carbon sequestration in Canadian forests and agroecosystems

The potential for carbon (C) sequestration was examined in selectedCanadian forest settings and prairie agroecosystems under severalmanagement scenarios. A simple C budget model was developed toquantitatively examine C sequestration potential in living biomass of forestecosystems, in associated forest-product C pools, and in displaced fossil-fuelC. A review of previous studies was conducted to examine C sequestrationpotential in prairie agroecosystems. In the forest settings examined, ourwork suggests that substantial C sequestration opportunities can be realizedin the short term through the establishment of protected forest-C reserves.Where stands can be effectively protected from natural disturbance, peaklevels of biomass C storage can exceed that under alternative managementstrategies for 200 years or more. In settings where it is not feasible tomaintain protected forest-C reserves, C sequestration opportunities can berealized through maximum sustained yield management with harvestedbiomass put towards the displacement of fossil fuels. Because there is afinite capacity for C storage in protected forest-C reserves, harvesting forestbiomass and using it to displace the use of fossil fuels, either directlythrough the production of biofuels or indirectly through the production oflong-lived forest products that displace the use of energy-intensive materialssuch as steel or concrete, can provide the greatest opportunity to mitigategreenhouse gas emissions in the long term. In Canadian prairieagroecosystems, modest C sequestration can be realized while enhancingsoil fertility and improving the efficiency of crop production. This can bedone in situations where soil organic C can be enhanced without relianceupon ongoing inputs of nitrogen fertilizer, or where the use of fossil fuelsin agriculture can be reduced. More substantial C offsets can be generatedthrough the production of dedicated energy crops to displace the use offossil fuels. Where afforestation or reconstruction of native prairieecosystems on previously cultivated land is possible, this represents thegreatest opportunity to sequester C on a per unit-area basis. However,these last two strategies involve the removal of land from crop production,and so they are not applicable on as wide a scale as some other Csequestration options which only involve modifications to currentagricultural practices.     

环境科学研究中两变量非线性相关时的线性回归方程

以环境科学研究两变量非线性相关的问题为对象，讨论建立线性回归方程的方法。有绝对误差均方和最小的最小二乘法、相对误差最小的新回归法。以简易的方法，建立相关性好、误差小的回归方程。介绍了两变量各种非线性相关时的线性回归方程在环境科学研究中的应用。     

森林合理年伐量分析确定方法研究

森林合理年伐分析确定是年森林采伐限额编制的关键技术之一,也是森林经理学的重要内容之一。本文从森林永续利用理论出发,以消长比度、成熟林采伐度、龄级结构改善度、流量均衡度、需要满足度５个指标建立了分析确定的综合评价模型,提出了森林合理年伐量分析确定的精确化方法,从而有效地保证了结果的科学性和准确性。     

基于GIS的汉江水污染信息管理系统的结构设计

介绍了基于GIS开发的汉江流域水污染信息管理系统的结构设计 ,本系统可实现对汉江全流域的基础地理信息、用水信息、污染信息的输入、输出、查询 ,进而利用水文水质预测模型作出评价、预测 ,为有效控制汉江流域水污染 ,促进全流域的社会经济可持续发展提供一定的决策支持。