生化恐怖威胁谱系研究进展

评述国内外生化恐怖威胁谱系研究现状;从基于综合因素、基于使用可能、基于杀伤破坏能力和基于袭击主体等方面对生化恐怖威胁源的分类体系和威胁清单进行归纳与梳理;建立了以易得性、毒害性、可用性和防护性为主要评价指标的生化恐怖威胁源评估体系;对进一步开展生化恐怖威胁谱系研究提出了若干建议和思考。研究表明:生化恐怖威胁谱系是一个动态的复杂概念集合,科学地确定评价指标、深入开展生化恐怖威胁谱系研究对于鉴别生化恐怖威胁源及建设反生化恐怖技术能力意义重大。     

Rates of Movement of Threatened Bird Species between IUCN Red List Categories and toward Extinction

Abstract:  In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988–2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.     

Reliability of Indicators of Decline in Abundance

Abstract: Although there are many indicators of endangerment (i.e., whether populations or species meet criteria that justify conservation action), their reliability has rarely been tested. Such indicators may fail to identify that a population or species meets criteria for conservation action (false negative) or may incorrectly show that such criteria have been met (false positive). To quantify the rate of both types of error for 20 commonly used indicators of declining abundance (threat indicators), we used receiver operating characteristic curves derived from historical (1938–2007) data for 18 sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We retrospectively determined each population's yearly status (reflected by change in abundance over time) on the basis of each indicator. We then compared that population's status in a given year with the status in subsequent years (determined by the magnitude of decline in abundance across those years). For each sockeye population, we calculated how often each indicator of past status matched subsequent status. No single threat indicator provided error‐free estimates of status, but indicators that reflected the extent (i.e., magnitude) of past decline in abundance (through comparison of current abundance with some historical baseline abundance) tended to better reflect status in subsequent years than the rate of decline over the previous 3 generations (a widely used indicator). We recommend that when possible, the reliability of various threat indicators be evaluated with empirical analyses before such indicators are used to determine the need for conservation action. These indicators should include estimates from the entire data set to take into account a historical baseline.     

冶金矿业环境隐患因子识别

本文分析了环境隐患与安全隐患的异同,定义了冶金矿业行业环境隐患的含义,分析了环境隐患与环境事故的关系,提出环境隐患因子识别的原则、范围和方法。根据冶金矿业行业实际生产情况,用LEC法和危险物质辨识方法对冶金矿业环境隐患进行识别,最终指出常见的冶金矿业环境隐患因子。     

Relationships between hope,optimism, and conservation engagement

The loss and degradation of nature can lead to hopelessness and despair, which may undermine engagement in conservation actions. Emerging movements, such as that behind the organization Conservation Optimism, aim to avert potential despair of those involved in conservation. Some argue that fostering positive states, such as hope or optimism, can motivate engagement and action; however, others question whether fostering hope or optimism may inadvertently undermine perceived gravity of conservation challenges. We examined this issue by quantifying dispositional hope and optimism with a representative sample of Australians (n = 4285) and assessing their relationship with indicators of conservation engagement. We used the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia as a case study. We asked participants what they could do to help the GBR, then classified their responses into 2 outcome variables: identifying climate actions (i.e., actions that tackle the main threat to the reef) and identifying plastic actions (i.e., actions that are popular among community members). We also quantified likelihood of performing these actions and appraisals of both threats and actions. One dimension of hope, hope pathways (defined by Snyder's hope theory as knowing different ways to act), was associated with greater capacity to identify climate-related behaviors (odds ratio [OR] = 1.44) and plastic reduction behaviors (OR = 1.22) and greater likelihood of adopting climate-related actions (β = 0.20). Optimism was associated with recognition of plastic reduction behaviors only (OR = 1.22). Neither hope nor optimism undermined appraisal of conservation threats. The effects of optimism were mediated by reduced action futility, and effects of hope pathways were mediated by stronger perceptions of threats to the reef (threat appraisal) and confidence in performing useful actions (coping appraisal). Our findings suggest that dispositional hope can strengthen, rather than undermine, appraisal of conservation challenges and solutions and thereby increase conservation engagement.     

Metrics for quantifying how much different threats contribute to red lists of species and ecosystems

Red lists are a crucial tool for the management of threatened species and ecosystems. Among the information red lists provide, the threats affecting the listed species or ecosystem, such as pollution or hunting, are of special relevance. This information can be used to quantify the relative contribution of different threat factors to biodiversity loss by disaggregating the cumulative extinction risk across species into components that can be attributed to certain threats. We devised and compared 3 metrics that accomplish this and may be used as indicators. The first metric calculates the portion of the temporal change in red list index (RLI) values that is caused by each threat. The second metric attributes the deviation of an RLI value from its reference value to different threats. The third metric uses extinction probabilities that are inferred from red list categories to estimate the contribution of a threat to the expected loss of species or ecosystems within 50 years. We used data from Norwegian Red Lists to test and evaluate these metrics. The first metric captured only a minor portion of the biodiversity loss caused by threats because it ignores species whose red list category does not change. Management authorities will often be interested in the contribution of a given threat to the total deviation from the optimal state. This was measured by the remaining metrics. The second metric was best suited for comparisons across countries or taxonomic groups. The third metric conveyed the same information but uses numbers of species or ecosystem as its unit, which is likely more intuitive to lay people and may be preferred when communicating with stakeholders or the general public.     

洞庭湖湿地生态系统管理面临的威胁及应对策略初探

生态系统管理可以实现自然资源的多目标管理。洞庭湖湿地生态系统优越,区域内社会经济发达,但面临保护与发展的双重压力。其中,开展洞庭湖区湿地生态系统管理面临众多威胁,包括自然灾害频发、资源利用不当、工农业污染突出、自然保护能力不足以及季节性缺水等新老问题交织在一起,共同导致了洞庭湖湿地生态系统功能降低,包括生物多样性降低、调蓄能力减弱、洪渍涝灾害加剧、地下水位升高、垸老田低等现象日益突出,而且这种人类不合理活动的后效放大驱动将长期存在,危及到了湖区水产养殖的自然增殖以及自然资源基础的安全性,成为湖区社会经济发展的严重制约因素。为此,建议在遵循生态系统方法的前提下,洞庭湖地区应该加强管理体制机制创新实践,加快湿地保护的立法与执法进程,通过编制洞庭湖区中长期发展总体规划,促进各种利益相关方参与和共管洞庭湖湿地退田还湖等生态恢复工程的巩固、湿地资源合理利用、湿地产业的开发以及湖区湿地生态与环境建设,最终实现湖区生态美好、民生改善的“人地和谐     

海南岛海草资源分布现状及存在威胁

2004～2009年对海南岛周遍海域的海草资源进行综合调查,结果表明:海南岛海草资源丰富,共有6属10种,面积约55 km2,优势种为泰莱藻;海南岛海草分布于近岸海域的珊瑚坪内侧或泻湖沿岸,主要位于潮间带低潮区和潮下带上部4m水深范围;海草生物量范围为71.24～727.24 g/m2,平均为410.26 g/m2;海草密度范围为4 131.20～550.40株/m2,平均为1 753.39株/m2。海南岛海草主要受陆源污染、海洋工程、渔业活动、非法渔业等活动影响。     

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long‐lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts’ judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts’ judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts’ assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers’ assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts’ decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species.     

Using Expert Opinion Surveys to Rank Threats to Endangered Species: A Case Study with Sea Turtles

Abstract: Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet‐based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at‐sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial‐based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more‐striking pattern was with hazard‐based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias‐controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.