基于Logistic回归和NFCA的水资源供需风险分析模型及其应用

我国城市水资源供需研究多从需水的角度考虑供需平衡,而忽略了供需风险的研究。针对这一问题,论文从危险性、暴露性和脆弱性的角度构建水资源供需风险指标体系,建立了基于Logistic回归和非线性模糊综合评价(NFCA)的供需风险分析模型。考虑供水的随机不确定性,以北京市为例,研究多种不同来水条件下的风险,结果表明:在1956-2007年的来水条件下,2020年固有风险均为一级风险;利用外调水和再生水后,现实风险中三级和四级风险占75%,一级和二级风险仍然占了25%。因此在降水量很小的情况下,水资源供需风险仍然处于较高水平。     

3种PAEs对蚯蚓的毒性作用和组织酶活性影响的研究

以赤子爱胜蚓(Eisenia foetida)为受试生物,通过滤纸接触法和自然土壤法研究邻苯二甲酸二甲酯(Dimethyl Phthalate,DMP)、邻苯二甲酸二乙酯(Diethyl Phthalate,DEP)和邻苯二甲酸二正丁酯(Di-n-butyl Phthalate,DBP)的急性毒性效应.结果表明,DEP和DMP对赤子爱胜蚓毒性显著,滤纸接触法染毒48 h时,DMP和DEP的半数致死剂量(LD50)分别为129.603μg·cm-2和145.336μg·cm-2.自然土壤法染毒14 d时,DMP和DEP的LC50分别为1 560.120 mg·kg-1和1 516.186 mg·kg-1.DBP的LD50尚无确切数据.自然土壤法研究DMP、DEP与DBP对蚯蚓组织超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)和乙酰胆碱酯酶(AChE)活性的影响.结果表明,SOD、CAT和AChE活性对DMP、DEP和DBP的毒性响应各不相同,其中,DMP、DEP和DBP的浓度对SOD、CAT和AChE活性呈显著性影响.SOD活性被DMP和DEP诱导增加.CAT的活性在DEP和DBP低浓度下诱导高浓度作用下抑制,而AChE活性在DEP和DBP低浓度下抑制高浓度下诱导.处理时间对SOD、AChE活性无显著性影响.     

Application of Modified Threat Reduction Assessments in Lebanon

Abstract: Worldwide efforts have concentrated on developing monitoring methods that would enhance the assessment of progress toward achieving the 2010 conservation objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Threat reduction assessment is one such method. It provides an indirect measure of the effects of a conservation project by evaluating changes in human‐induced direct threats to protected areas. We applied modified threat reduction assessments and the 2008 International Union for Conservation of Nature standardized lexicon for classification of threats to Horsh Ehden and Al‐Shouf Cedar nature reserves in Lebanon. Our goal was in part to test the suitability of this tool for improving monitoring and management effectiveness of protected forests in Lebanon. In Horsh Ehden, composite threats decreased by 24% from 1997 to 2002, and then increased from 2002 to 2009 by 78% in the core area of the reserve and by 118% in the reserve's buffer zone (surrounds core area, conservation and recreational activities allowed). In Al‐Shouf Cedar reserve threats decreased by 51% from 2006 to 2009. Management teams from both reserves have integrated the use of this method to prioritize actions for new management plans. We believe that in Lebanon and other countries with limited resources and weak monitoring programs or that are experiencing political instability threat reduction assessments could be used to improve the effectiveness of protected areas management.     

菲和芘单一及复合污染对蚯蚓抗氧化酶活性和丙二醛含量的影响

采用自然土壤法,以蚯蚓体内超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)活性和丙二醛(MDA)含量为指标,探讨了不同剂量、不同暴露时间菲(Pbe)和芘(Pyr)单一及复合污染胁迫对蚯蚓的毒性效应.结果表明.菲和芘单一作用时.SOD活性均表现为低剂量激活,高剂量抑制;而MDA含量在暴露2 d内明显增加,第14 d时与对照...     

空管威胁、差错与意外状态的贝叶斯模型分析研究

为准确理解民航空中交通管理中各类人为差错数据的可靠性和相关性,为安全决策提供量化依据,对空管威胁、差错和意外状态数据进行贝叶斯模型分析。该方法在先验概率基础上,通过研究空中意外状态发生条件下威胁与差错各自发生的后验概率,获得上述3类安全信息的相关性大小排序。针对收集到的625起数据样本进行了研究,结果表明:与空中意外状态的发生相关性最大的3类差错依次为:管制员对机组的通讯差错、信息差错以及管制员对管制员的通讯差错;与空中意外状态的发生相关性最大的3类威胁依次为:程序威胁、相邻单位威胁和空中交通威胁。空管运行单位的安全管控应重点关注管制员/机组间的通讯差错,并针对各种可能出现的威胁预先制定应对程序。     

滇金丝猴栖息地生物多样性及其威胁因素研究

滇金丝猴栖息地是我国生物多样性保护关键区域之一，具有生态系统多样性、物种多样性、遗传多样性等特点。分析了滇金丝猴栖息地目前受到的威胁，提出了今后保护管理的意见。