复合生态系统非线性累积效应响应因子的阈值模型

基于流域系统累积环境效应的产生机理，以系统动力学特征和累积环境效应-反应过程特征曲线为依据，分析了复合生态环境承载力及其适应性，提出并建立了非线性累积效应响应的指标阈值模型及因子响应程度的客观、动态量化方法。模型的建立对系统可持续发展的评估决策具有一定的指导作用。     

Weaning in the guinea pig (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cavia aperea</Emphasis> f. <Emphasis Type="Italic">porcellus</Emphasis>): Who decides and by what measure?

Offspring should be selected to influence maternal effort to maximize their own fitness, whereas mothers are selected to limit investment in present progeny. In mammals, this leads to a conflict over the amount of milk provided and the timing of weaning. The intensity and time course of such conflict has so far mostly been investigated experimentally in altricial rodents. However, it is expected that offspring options for conflict will depend on developmental state. We therefore investigated in the highly precocial domestic guinea pig (Cavia aperea f. porcellus) who decides over nursing performance and weaning and how pup state influences these decisions. Specifically, we tested whether a threshold mass of pups predicts weaning time. By exchanging older litters against neonates and vice versa, we produced a situation in which females differed in lactational stage from the cross-fostered pups. Our results indicate that females decide about the timing of weaning, as cross-fostered younger pups were weaned at a much younger age than controls and older pups benefited from continuing lactation of foster mothers. Growth rates did not differ in the treatment groups, and different weaning ages resulted in differing weaning mass refuting the hypothesis that weaning is based on a threshold mass of offspring. This constitutes clear evidence that in a precocial rodent, the guinea pig, decisions about maternal care are primarily determined by maternal state and little influenced by pup state despite the extreme precociality of offspring. We suggest that precocial pups show little resistance to early weaning when food is abundant, as they reach sufficient nutritional independence by the middle of lactation to enable independent survival.     

有机物生物降解极限浓度的探讨

讨论了有关有机物生物降解极限浓度（Smin)的定义，介绍了热力学测定方法、动力学测定方法和扩散测定方法等3种测定极限浓度的方法。正确测定有机物生物降解极限浓度对开发微量有机物生物高度净化新技术，寻求提高现有生物处理技术净化效果的途径，污染环境的修复等都具有极其重要的意义。     

Assessing the risk of soil contamination in the Swiss Jura using indicator geostatistics

The probability that the concentrations of toxic substances in soil or other medium exceed tolerablemaxima at any unsampled place can be estimated by indicator geostatistics. The method is developed and used to estimate and map the risk of contamination by cadmium, copper and lead in the topsoil of a 14.5 km 2 region in the Swiss Jura. It combines both direct measurements of metal concentrations and thecalibration of a geological map, and it shows that the risk of toxicity is least on Argovian rocks. Two approaches are proposed to divide a region into safe' and 'hazardous' zones on the basis of probability maps. The first declares as contaminated all places where the risk of contamination exceeds a given threshold. The second approach first evaluates the financial costs that might result from a wrongdeclaration, after which the site is allocated to a class so as to minimize that cost. The risk of exposure for humans and animals is generally greater for contaminated agricultural land than for forest soil, and so land use is taken into account in both procedures.     

富营养化水体中藻类生长限制因素的确定及其应用

在富化营养化的巢湖，围隔实验结果表明磷和其它营养元素不是水体藻类的生长限制因素、藻类生长的正磷酸盐阈值浓度为０．０１９ｍｇ／ｌ，它低于巢湖实际浓度。湖水的矿物性浊度很高，净生产力在一米水深以下呈现负值，数据表明学强在大数时间是藻类生长的限制因素。在巢湖治理过程中，需大幅降低流域内的磷负荷，使湖水平均溶解态总磷浓度从目前的０．０４９ｍｌ／ｌ降到０．０１９ｍｇ／ｌ以下。因此巢湖在治理和恢复是一个缓慢的     

污水海洋处置工程多喷口浮射流近区稀释扩散规律研究

结合上海市污水治理二期工程稀释扩散物理模型试验，首次通过量纲分析的方法，对上升管上布置多个喷口时污水的近区稀释扩散规律进行了研究，得出了上升管布置不同喷口个数时的近区稀释度计算公式，所得公式具有一定的适用性，这对于我国较浅水域扩散器的设计具有重要的指导意义。     

珠江广州西航道农药污染事故监测结果分析

在受敌敌畏农药（DDVP）污染的珠江广州河段内采样监测，通过数据分析，探讨了珠江水体的稀释能力，对其水体状况进行评价。结果显示，经过30h的稀释混合，受污染的水体水质恢复正常。证明了目前珠江广州河段水体状况良好，纳污能力强。     

资源环境承载力评估新视角:行星边界框架的源起、发展与展望

将人类活动规模与强度控制在自然生态系统可承载限度之内,是可持续发展理论的核心要义。行星边界框架所秉持的“地球系统观”,为资源环境承载力评估提供了新视角,一经提出便在国际可持续发展领域引发极大关注与热烈讨论。本文系统阐述了行星边界框架的理论基础及其内涵演进,着重论述了该框架在国家、省域、市域和组织等不同尺度的发展与应用,深入探讨了其面临的挑战与改进方向,并与传统资源环境承载力研究范式进行了比较。研究表明:行星边界框架以复杂系统稳态和突变理论为基础,是历史经验与科学研究有机结合的产物。作为对现有资源环境承载力评估体系的有益补充,该框架由全球尺度向区域尺度拓展时,遵循自上而下分配与自下而上整合两条路径。当前行星边界框架中关于生物物理过程的尺度效应与交互机制的阐述较为薄弱,导致其变量选取与边界设置仍存较大争议,在与环境影响评价相整合、向社会经济维度拓展等方面面临方法学挑战。今后应从理论基础、技术方法、实践应用等方面继续深化研究,提升行星边界框架在可持续发展目标（SDGs）等全球重大公共议题中的政策价值。     

中国环境税费政策的双重红利效应——基于系统GMM与面板门槛模型的估计

基于庇古理论征收环境税是解决环境污染外部性的规制手段,构建环境税费的动态面板模型和面板门槛模型,检验环境税费政策是否能产生降低污染又能激励绿色技术创新的双重红利.研究发现：我国环境税费政策的实施存在双重红利,地区高人口密度并未成为环境红利的制约因素,产业结构和能源结构需进一步优化调整才能促进双重红利效应.环境税费政策对环境污染、绿色技术创新存在非线性时变特征,只有在适宜的环境税费区间才能更好地实现双重红利效应;经济发展水平越高,环境税费的双重红利作用越明显.因此,以2018年开始征收环境税为契机,基于地区经济发展异质特征制定全方位的环境税体系是打赢环保攻坚战的重点.     

2009年与2014年太子河流域附石藻群落结构变化及其与水环境的关系

为了解近年来太子河流域附石藻群落结构和水环境状况的变化趋势及二者的响应关系,于2009年和2014年对太子河全流域的附石藻群落和水环境因子进行调查分析,并探究了基于附石藻群落保护的主要水环境因子浓度限值.结果表明:①与2009年相比,2014年太子河流域的附石藻密度、物种丰富度、群落多样性均显著升高（P < 0.05）;群落组成中对不良环境干扰呈负响应的藻属相对多度普遍升高,对不良环境干扰呈正响应的藻属相对多度普遍降低.②与2009年相比,2014年水环境因子中ρ（TDS）（TDS为总溶解性固体）、ρ（SS）、ρ（TN）、和ρ（NO₃--N）显著降低（P < 0.05）,ρ（DO）显著升高（P < 0.05）.典范对应分析（canonical correspondence analysis,CCA）显示,2009年ρ（TN）和ρ（NH₄+-N）是影响太子河流域附石藻群落的重要水环境因子;2014年ρ（TN）、ρ（NH₄+-N）和ρ（TDS）对附石藻群落结构有重要影响.③经局部加权回归散点修匀法（locally weighted scatterplot smoothing,LOWESS）和独立样本t检验得出,当ρ（TDS）、ρ（TN）和ρ（NH₄+-N）分别为185.00、1.00和0.22 mg/L时,其与P-IBI构成的拟合曲线存在拐点,且拐点两侧的P-IBI差异性显著（P < 0.05）.研究显示,2009—2014年太子河流域的附石藻群落和水环境状况整体有所改善,合理控制ρ（TN）、ρ（NH₄+-N）和ρ（TDS）对该流域的附石藻群落保护有重要意义.