我国地方性氟中毒病区环境氟的安全阈值

概述了我国地方性氟中毒的4个流行区域及其环境特征,揭示地方性氟中毒的流行与地球化学环境密切相关,研究了不同氟中毒病区氟从外环境到人体的传输途径及其剂量-效应关系.选择氟斑牙检出率5%作为病区划分标准,确定了不同病区环境氟的安全阈值,为氟的环境风险评价提供科学依据.     

固定源PM_(2.5)稀释采样器的研制

为研究固定源PM2.5的排放特征,研制开发了一套紧凑型稀释采样器,能模拟高温烟气排放到大气中的冷却、稀释、凝结等物理化学过程,采集固定源排放的一次PM2.5.稀释采样器主要的技术参数如下:稀释比在20∶1~50∶1范围内,在稀释器里的停留时间为10 s,稀释后的烟气温度和相对湿度分别小于42℃和50%,满足ISO 25597:2013的要求.稀释采样器的性能评价实验表明,稀释器气密性良好,稀释空气中颗粒物浓度低,气流混合均匀性良好,细颗粒在采样器内的损失小,表明稀释采样器可靠性高,适合于对固定源排放PM2.5的采集.     

基于分形方法的合肥大兴地区土壤中污染元素Hg异常下限

土壤污染元素异常下限值的确定对环境地球化学评价具有重要意义,传统异常下限值计算方法仪适用于元素含量数据呈正态分布的情况且地球化学意义不明确,而事实上土壤元素含量的空间分布很可能具有分形分布特征,元素背景和异常有各自独立的幂指数关系.文章探讨利用分形方法确定合肥大兴地区土壤中Hg元素的异常下限值.基于分形的含量-面积方法确定的合肥大兴地区土壤中污染元素Hg的异常下限值为0.13 mg/kg.与传统方法(平均值加两倍标准离差)对比显示,分形方法圈定的异常区域是有效的、合理的.     

恶臭监测嗅觉测试方法的比较分析

通过恶臭污染监测技术的比较分析,阐明了各类恶臭监测技术的特点和发展方向,指出嗅觉测试法在目前技术水平下的重要作用和地位,依据古典心理物理学中最小可觉差法及平均差误法对欧洲EN13725标准方法和中国三点比较式臭袋法进行了比较分析,得到2种实验方法的特点。古典物理学是科学心理学一百多年的发展历程中已经形成的经典研究技术,主要用于外界刺激对人的感觉器官作用的测试技术。其中最小可觉差法是采用已知"标准刺激"对未知的"比较刺激"进行比较的感受阈值测定方法。平均差误法则是将"标准刺激"阈值视为零,并将接近零的平均实验结果作为感觉阈值的测定方法。在欧洲嗅辨实验所用的"标准刺激"为标准臭气样,而中国嗅辨实验暂时没有标准臭气样品,仍依据嗅觉阈值为零的概念进行恶臭样品实验。通过多年对嗅辨员的考核经验,总结了人的嗅阈值的分布特征,进而提出标准臭气样品的制备研究方法,提出培训嗅辨师以增强对环境恶臭污染识别能力的观点,借以深入理解恶臭嗅觉测定技术方法。     

吉林省夏季极端降水事件特征分析

利用吉林省46个气象站1961-2010年逐日降水资料,采用百分位定义极端事件阈值的方法,对吉林省极端降水事件的时空分布及变化趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)吉林省极端降水事件主要发生在夏季,其中5%的降水日数贡献了该季度25%～30%的降水量;夏季极端降水强度以通化地区最强、东部山区最弱,极端降水频率东部山区最大、西北部最小;(2)吉林省100mm以上的极端大暴雨天气也时有发生,通化地区南部发生几率最大,约为4～6 a一遇;中部一带约为8～10a一遇;西北平原区和东部山区出现大暴雨概率很小。(3)近50a吉林省夏季极端降水事件稍有增多的趋势,而强度变化趋势不明显,但存在明显的地域差别,西北部表现为频率减少、强度减弱,中部和东南部表现为频率增多、强度增强。(4)极端降水事件存在年代际差异,20世纪70年代极端降水频率最小,90年代极端降水强度最大,60年代初期极端降水强度存在由强转弱的突变。     

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate‐change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. We assessed the potential impact of climate‐change scenarios on the rates at which grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized for emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) for agricultural use, which can occur when precipitation for the previous 4 months is below 40% of the normal or historical mean precipitation for that 4‐month period. We developed and analyzed scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections showed the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28% based on long‐term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario that reflected continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing‐season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and were subject to a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario with rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario‐impact analysis indicated that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP would be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate‐change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.     

Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach

We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat‐forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost‐effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants’ consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future.     

干化-干湿转化对鄱阳湖湿地土壤氮矿化的影响

本研究采集鄱阳湖湿地3种典型植被(虉草、苔草、芦苇)土壤,在室内分别设置30%WHC(最大持水量)、50%WHC和80%WHC 3种水分条件培养1个月,分别模拟重度干旱、轻度干旱和适宜水分环境,然后添加水分到200%WHC模拟干湿转化过程;基于~(15)N同位素稀释法计算干化-干湿转化过程中湿地土壤的总氨化速率和总硝化速率.土壤干化过程中,芦苇带土壤总氨化速率最高,虉草带土壤总硝化速率最高;土壤总氨化速率和总硝化速率都随干旱程度增强而降低,轻度干旱条件下总硝化速率的降低比总氨化速率更明显;除水分条件外,总氨化速率主要受土壤碳含量影响,总硝化速率主要受pH值影响.土壤湿化过程中,苔草带和芦苇带土壤氮总氨化速率在1 d内变化较小,1～5 d不断下降;虉草带重度干旱土壤氮总氨化速率在湿化后呈上升趋势,轻度干旱土壤只在湿化后1 d内明显增大;3种植被土壤总硝化速率都在1 d内明显下降,此后维持较低水平.干化过程中,氨氧化古菌(AOA)和氨氧化细菌(AOB)丰度对土壤总硝化速率的影响相近,湿化过程中AOB丰度的影响相对增大.     

基于GIS技术的城市道路机动车流量阈值研究

针对城市中心道路机动车流量增加带来的大气环境污染问题,探讨区域机动车流量与污染物之间的关系。分析交通污染源强、道路几何条件和气象条件,建立基于ARCGIS重点区域机动车通行容量模型,用于计算城市重点区域机动车通行量阈值。以桂林市城市中心主要道路为例,分析区域不同空气质量等级下交通量限值,为环境及交通管理提供了决策支持依据。     

考虑心理阈值的突发事件多部门应急决策动态调整方法

针对多部门协同参与应急决策并执行应急方案的情形,提出一种考虑心理阈值的多部门应急决策动态调整方法。首先,将各部门的心理参照点作为识别框架,合成各部门心理参照点的基本概率分配,得到部门协同心理参照点;然后,引入心理阈值区间量化描述决策部门的心理行为,并结合部门协同心理参照点,得到不同情景关于经济损失和人员伤亡的满意度,进而合成情景属性满意度,计算各备选方案的总体满意度,并对方案排序择优;最后,通过案例分析验证本文提出方法的有效性和适用性。