Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Compound contamination and secondary ecological effects of Cd and As in soil-alfalfa ecosystems

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Phytotoxicity assessment of phenanthrene, pyrene and their mixtures by a soil-based seedling emergence test

Seedling emergence tests were conducted in a meadow brown soil using five plant species ( i. e., Chinese cabbage, green onion, tomato, turnip and wheat) to determine the phytotoxicity of phenanthrene, pyrene and their mixtures. The soil was amended with up to 1000mg/kg soil of phenanthrene or 600 mg/kg soil of pyrene. Seedling emergence and root growth were measured. The results indicated that root elongation was more sensitive than seedling emergence. Root length decreased with increasing phenanthrene or pyrene concentrations(p≤0.05). Phenanthrene was more phytotoxic than pyrene. The lowest observable adverse effect concentration(LOAEC) was 10mg/kg for phenanthrene when tested with green onion, and 50mg/kg for pyrene when tested with wheat. Among the five species, wheat was found to be the most sensitive. When amended jointly at or below their respective LOAEC, phenanthrene and pyrene produced a synergistic toxic effect.     

Effects of uncontrolled particulate matter release on precipitation under warfare conditions

This study has shown theoretical, observed and experimental evidence of pollutants released, transported and deposited during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 and their effects on precipitation in Serbia. The greatest bombardment of the chemical industry, oil refineries and fuel storage in Serbia which occurred during April, resulted in releases of many hazardous, toxic and cancerogenic substances. The number of April's days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm in 1999 are compared to those in the period from 1961 to 1990 registered at thirty meteorological stations in Serbia and especially at the Belgrade-Observatory station in the period from 1888 to 1995. The maximums of days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm were at the wider Belgrade area and at the central and southwestern parts of Serbia during April 1999. This is confirmed by using the Eta trajectory analysis.     

Endocrine disruption of water and sediment extracts in a non-radioactive dot blot/RNAse protection-assay using isolated hepatocytes of rainbow trout

Goal, Scope and Background In order to evaluate the estrogenic activity of sediments and XAD water extracts of selected sites of the catchment area of the River Neckar, a river system in Southern Germany, an integrative assessment approach was used to assess the ecological hazard potential of endocrine-disrupting compounds in sediment and water. Methods The approach is based on estrogen receptor-mediated vitellogenin synthesis induced in isolated hepatocytes of rainbow trout and quantified in a non-radioactive dot blot/RNAse protection-assay in parallel to comprehensive chemical analyses of estrogenic substances. Results and Discussion Numerous investigated extracts revealed an estrogen activity comparable to that of the positive control (1 nM 17?-estradiol corresponding to 270 ng/L in the test medium). Based on a concentration factor of 30 in the extracts and a recovery of XAD resins of approximately 80 %, 17?-estradiol equivalent concentrations between 20 and 26.7 ng/L could be calculated downstream of a sewage treatment plant (< 0.1 ng/L for a reference site). A comparison of the bioassay-derived Bio-TEQs (toxicity equivalents) and the Chem-TEQs revealed a high correlation with a Pearson coefficient of 0.85, indicating that the same ranking of the samples could be obtained with respect to the endocrine disrupting potential with both chemical and bioanalytical analysis. However, the TEQ concentrations computed from chemical analyses were significantly lower than the bioassay-derived TEQ concentrations. In fact, in none of the samples, more than 14 % of the vitellogenin-inducing potency could be attributed to the substances (steroids, alkylphenols, bisphenol A, diethylstilbestrol) analyzed. A comparison of the endocrine disrupting potential of sediments extracted by the solvents acetone and methanol revealed lower biological effects for acetone-extracted samples. Possible reasons may be a masking of endocrine effects in acetone extracts by cytotoxicity, a low extraction efficiency of the solvent acetone, or anti-estrogen potencies of some extracted sediment compounds. Using a mass balance approach, the contribution of the compounds analyzed chemically (Chem-TEQs) to the total endocrine activity (Bio-TEQs) was calculated. Based on the very low detection limits, particularly of the steroids with their high TEF factors, results revealed that a calculation of the Chem-TEQs is associated with considerable scale inaccuracy: Whereas only 7-15 % of the biological effectiveness (Bio-TEQs) could be explained by endocrine substances identified above the detection limits, the assumption of concentrations slightly below the given detection limits would result in a significant over estimation (137-197 %) of the Bio-TEQs. Even the interassay variation of the dot blot assay with different fish donors for primary hepatocyte (factor 2 - 2.5) is relatively low, when compared to the large range of the Chem-TEQ concentrations (factor 20) obtained when applying different modes of calculation. Conclusions and Outlook Overall, only a minor portion of the endocrine activity detected by bioassays could be linked to compounds identified by chemical analysis. In vitro assays for assessment of endocrine activities are useful as sensitive integrating methods that provide quantitative estimates of the total activity of particular receptor-mediated responses. Although discrepancies may also result from different bioanalytical approaches, it is overall likely that bioanalytical and not chemical analytical approaches give the correct estimate of endocrine disrupting potencies in environmental samples. As a conclusion, assessment of endocrine disruption based on chemical analysis alone does not appear sufficient and further research into the spectrum of substances with potential endocrine activity as well as into additive or even synergistic effects in complex environmental samples is urgently needed.     

Distribution of endocrine disruptors in the Llobregat River basin (Catalonia, NE Spain)

The Llobregat basin is a Mediterranean fluvial system with major agricultural, urban and industrial impacts. We combined chemical quantification by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry with electrospray interface (LC-ESI-MS) and the recombinant yeast assay (RYA) assays to estimate the loads of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) along the basin. Chemical analysis revealed maximum concentrations (at μg l⁻¹ level) of alkylphenols at the lower course of the Llobregat River, which correlated with high levels of estrogenic activity detected by RYA. Analysis by RYA and LC-ESI-MS of influent and effluent waters from four sewage treatment plants (STP) discharging into the basin showed the removal of 80–95% of EDCs by STP treatment. Chemical analysis data and RYA data showed a quasi-linear correlation, demonstrating the complementariness of both methods. Our data suggest that the concentrations of the analysed compounds were enough to explain the total estrogenicity of water and STP samples from the Llobregat basin.     

Screening 31 endocrine-disrupting pesticides in water and surface sediment samples from Beijing Guanting reservoir

For screening 31 potential or suspected endocrine-disrupting pesticides in water and surface sediments, a multiresidue analysis method based on gas chromatography with electron capture detection (GC/ECD) was developed. Solid phase extraction (SPE) technology with Oasis^® HLB cartridge was also applied in sample extraction. The relevant mean recoveries were 70–103% and 71–103% for water and sediment, respectively. Relative standard deviations (RSD) are 2.0–7.0%, 4.0–8.0% for water and sediment, respectively. Thirty one pesticides (-HCH, β-HCH, γ-HCH, δ-HCH, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), aldrin, heptachlor, endosulfan I & II, p,p′-DDD, o,p′-DDT, p,p′-DDT, p,p′-DDE, endrin aldehyde, endosulfan sulphate, methoxychlor, hepachlor epoxide, -chlordane, γ-chlordane, dieldrin, endrin, dicofol, acetochlor, alachlor, metolachlor, chlorpyriphos, nitrofen, trifluralin, cypermethrin, fenvalerate, deltamethrin) in water and surface sediment samples from Beijing Guanting reservoir were analyzed. Concentrations of pesticides ranged from 7.59 to 36.0 ng g⁻¹ on a dry wt. basis for sediment samples, from 279.3 to 2740 ng l⁻¹ for pore waters and from 48.8 to 890 ng l⁻¹ for water samples, respectively, with a mean concentration of 10.7 ng g⁻¹ in sediment, 735 ng l⁻¹ in pore water and 295 ng l⁻¹ in water, respectively. The data obtained provides information on the levels and sources of endocrine-disrupting pesticides in Guanting reservoir. These results underscore the need to improved environmental protection measures in order to reduce the exposure of the population and aquatic biota to these endocrine-disrupting compounds.     

Toxic Effects of Crude Oil Combined with Oil Cleaner Simple Green on Yolk-sac Larvae and Adult Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (4 pp)

Background, Goal and Scope Cleaner CRYSTAL Simple Green (SG) was used for the cleanup of the oil spill in the Baltic Sea near Lithuania in 2001. No scientific data are available on the effects and consequences of its application for local aquatic life. The aim of this study was to determine and compare sublethal effects of a) solution SG; b) crude oil alone; c) SG in combination with oil on rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss at different stages of its development in laboratory conditions.Methods Laboratory studies were performed on adult rainbow trout (4-day duration) and on yolk-sac larvae (25-day duration) evaluating their biological parameters. Concentrations of water-soluble and thin-dispersed fractions of petroleum hydrocarbons were measured using gas chromatography.Results and Discussion SG solution (0.5 mg/l) did not affect the survival of larvae and adult fish, and no significant changes were determined in respiratory parameters of the exposed larvae and adult fish. The most expressed alterations were found in morphological parameters (a decrease in the average body mass) of larvae and in haematological indices (a decrease in the leukocyte count) of adult fish at the end of the tests. Crude oil (1610 mg/l) did not affect the survival of adult fish during the 4-day exposure. An increase in larvae mortality rate (~ 36%) was recorded at the end of the tests. A significant decrease in the average body mass and heart rate of larvae as well as in gill ventilation frequency of larvae and adult fish were determined. SG combined with oil induced an increase in larval mortality &#61566; 46% of individuals died at the end of the tests. No mortality was recorded in adult fish. The average body mass and heart rate of larvae were significantly decreased. Marked changes were also found in respiratory parameters (gill ventilation frequency of larvae and adult fish significantly decreased, while “coughing” rate increased). A 1-day, 2-day exposure of fish to SG combined with oil induced a significant decrease in the leukocyte count of adult fish, which was also determined at the end of the tests. The augmentation of adverse impact could be explained by the data obtained from our studies. When SG was added into dilution water with crude oil the concentration of petroleum hydrocarbons in the mixture increased 3 ~ 4.5 times after 24 h and 96 h, respectively. Conclusions The comparative study of the effects of crude oil alone, SG and SG combined with oil showed that their toxic effects on fish differed. Oil combined with SG was found to be more toxic to fish (larvae and adults) than SG alone and oil alone. Fish at early stages of development (yolk-sac larvae) were more sensitive to the effects of the compounds studied than adults.Recommendations and Outlook To diminish the negative impact of oil spill cleanup using chemicals on aquatic ecosystems, it is recommended to carry out more comprehensive studies of their effects and after-effects in laboratory conditions using a wide scale of local aquatic organisms. The selected species of the most sensitive aquatic organisms should include those which are unable to escape the impact of combined action of oil and cleaners. Special attention should be directed to the research of effects of these pollutants on studied organisms at their most sensitive stages of life (reproduction, hatching, early stages of development), as after-effects of exposure to pollutants may be observed in future generations.     

周边土地利用类型对川西平原西河氮素的影响

以四川盆地西部典型农业小流域为研究区,于2015年3月~2016年2月持续监测河流氮素（NH₄⁺-N、NO₃^--N、TN）和pH,结合遥感解译、地理信息系统和相关性分析等技术,探讨了监测断面周边流域土地利用类型与河流氮素及pH值的关系.结果表明,研究区河流氮素浓度的季节变化均表现为冬季最高（2.063mg/L）、春秋次之（1.536mg/L;1.432mg/L）、夏季最低（1.085mg/L）,同时月均NO₃^--N浓度（0.891mg/L）显著高于NH₄⁺-N（0.425mg/L）（P<0.01）,且NO₃^--N受到典型土地利用类型的显著影响.随着缓冲区半径的增加,耕地、城乡建设用地和水域的面积与NO₃^--N和TN浓度相关性逐渐降低,且在250m缓冲区内,城乡建设用地面积与NO₃^--N浓度呈显著正相关（P<0.05）;交通运输用地面积与所有氮组分的相关性均增大,且在750m缓冲区内,交通运输用地面积与NO₃^--N和TN浓度呈极显著正相关（P<0.01）.城乡建设用地和交通运输用地可能是河流NO₃^--N的"源".     

气候变化对太岳山中部油松单萜烯排放的影响

以全球气候模式NorESM1-M产生的RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候变化情景数据和植物VOCs排放计算模型,模拟分析了气候变化对山西太岳山中部油松叶片单萜烯排放速率的影响.结果显示,未来气候变化影响下山西太岳山中部气温呈上升趋势,降水和辐射强度波动大.在RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景与基准情景下,油松单萜烯日排放速率在1~210d呈上升趋势,在210~365d呈下降趋势;在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下高约2μg/（g·d）,在RCP8.5情景下最高;油松单萜烯日排放速率在未来气候变化情景与基准情景下差异在1~95d和296~365d较小,在96~295d波动较大.同时,相比基准情景,单萜烯日排放速率增幅在1~190d较高（增加12%~14%以上）,在191~315d较小（增加9%~13%以上）,在316~365d增加12%~18%以上,在RCP8.5情景下增幅最大（增加14%以上）.另外,油松单萜烯年排放速率在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下平均高约1000μg/（g·a）以上,在RCP8.5情景下增幅最大（约12%）.说明,未来气候变化将使油松单萜烯排放速率增加.