滨岸带水华堆积与消散特征及其营养盐效应

为了解滨岸带植被、地形等地貌要素对蓝藻水华堆积及消散过程的影响,在太湖滨岸带设置不同形式的围格和植被实验区,通过逐日监测水体叶绿素a（Chl-a）的消长过程及同步营养盐变化,研究夏季蓝藻水华在湖泊滨岸带堆积与消散特征和营养盐效应.结果表明,滨岸带的地形地貌及植被状况对蓝藻水华的堆积程度及消散过程影响较大,软围隔营造的滨岸带静水环境,以及不同植被所形成的不同滞水区,显著加剧了蓝藻水华的局部堆积,从岸边挺水和浮叶植被区到开敞水域对照区,蓝藻水华的堆积程度依次递减;近岸挺水和浮叶植被区蓝藻水华堆积最严重,堆积时间最早,持续时间长;蓝藻水华堆积对营养盐等水质指标影响极大,堆积严重时该区域Chl-a含量达到了457.42μg/L,总氮（TN）达到11.04mg/L,总磷（TP）达到1.32mg/L;橡胶围格内浮叶植物区藻类堆积程度与近岸区类似,而浮叶植物与沉水植物混合区藻类堆积程度低于单一浮叶植物区;水体围隔能够加剧蓝藻水华的堆积,没有围隔的浮叶植物区藻类堆积程度最低.在蓝藻水华堆积过程中,蓝藻细胞仍在继续增殖,水体Chl-a仍会明显增加,而同期的水体营养盐的增幅小于Chl-a,甚至随着藻类生长消耗及生态系统的脱氮效应,溶解态氮磷下降明显.蓝藻水华消散过程中,TN、TP与Chl-a同步下降,但藻体中的氮磷释放到水中,导致堆积区的溶解态氮、磷有所增加,显示出明显的营养盐效应.本研究定量刻画了蓝藻水华局部堆积并快速致灾的地形地貌要素特点,揭示了蓝藻水华的水质与生态效应,为科学评估富营养化水体蓝藻水华的生态灾害风险提供科学依据.     

基于混合效应模型的京津冀地区PM2.5日浓度估算

利用2016年182d的MODIS 3km AOD数据与地面监测数据,评估了混合效应模型不同参数组合的模拟性能,得出模型在解释AOD-PM_2.5关系时,对时间序列变异的解释能力要比空间差异更佳.在此基础上,利用混合效应模型建立京津冀地区每日的AOD-PM_2.5关系,模型拟合R²为0.92,交叉验证调整R²为0.85,均方根误差（RMSE）为12.30 μg/m³,平均绝对误差（MAE）为9.73 μg/m³,说明模型拟合精度较高.基于此模型估算的2016年京津冀地区年均PM_2.5浓度为42.98 μg/m³,暖季（4月1日~10月31日）为43.35 μg/m³,冷季（11月1日~3月31日）为38.52 μg/m³,与同时期的地面监测数据差值分别为0.59,0.7,5.29 μg/m³.空间上,京津冀地区的PM_2.5浓度呈现南高北低的特征,有一条明显的西南-东北走向的高值区.研究结果表明,基于每日混合效应模型可以准确评估京津冀地区的地面PM_2.5浓度,且模型估算的PM_2.5浓度分布状况为区域大气污染防治提供了基础的数据支撑.     

杭州市空气细颗粒物浓度与哮喘就诊人次的关系

为研究大气细颗粒物污染对哮喘门诊就诊的短期影响及各人群的易感性差异,收集杭州市某医院2013年1月1日至2015年12月31日哮喘门诊(含急诊)资料,以及同期空气污染数据和气象数据,考虑到污染物浓度与呼吸系统疾病就诊人次及气象因素之间的非线性关系,采用时间序列广义相加模型及分层分析的方法研究空气污染对哮喘影响的滞后效应及人群按性别、年龄分层的易感性差异,对平均温度、平均相对湿度及长期趋势等采用自然立方样条函数进行平滑拟合,同时用哑元变量控制星期几效应和节假日效应的影响.在P=0.01水平下PM_(2.5)、NO_2、SO_2之间均呈显著的正相关性,而气温与3种污染物之间呈显著的负相关性.PM_(2.5)日均浓度每升高10μg·m~(-3),对哮喘就诊人次影响的相对危险度(relative risk,RR)在滞后5d达到最大值,为1.005 6(95%CI:1.002 1~1.009 1),且具有统计学意义(P0.05).在男性人群和18~64岁人群中,细颗粒物浓度对于哮喘就诊人次的影响在滞后3~5 d的RR值均具有统计学意义,在女性人群和≥65岁人群中,在滞后5 d时RR值均具有统计学意义.在多污染物模型中,引入NO_2的影响后PM_(2.5)对哮喘就诊人次的影响在滞后5 d时的RR有所提升.杭州市PM_(2.5)浓度的升高可能会造成3~5 d内哮喘门诊就诊人次的增加,且对男性人群和老年人群影响更为明显.     

空气质量指数(AQI)的社会经济影响因素分析——基于指数衰减效应视角

中国面临着严重的环境恶化问题,其中空气污染问题尤为突出.基于中国2014年全国城市空气质量数据,利用自然正交函数分析城市空气质量指数的时空演变特征,并采用基于衰减效应的矩阵指数空间设定模型探讨了空气污染的影响因素.研究结果表明:(1)AQI以京津冀为高值中心向周边地区呈衰减变化,污染核心区由京津冀逐渐向豫北地区和鲁西北地区扩散,年内AQI在1—9月呈现下降趋势,然后逐渐上升;(2)150个城市的空气质量指数呈现出明显的空间集聚;(3)矩阵指数空间设定模型优于空间滞后模型,并且城市间空气污染呈现出显著的空间衰减效应;(4)人均地区生产总值的提高、SO_2排放量和PM_(2.5)浓度增加是导致空气污染加剧的重要原因,而外商直接投资和环保意识的提高有助于改善中国的空气质量.     

基于AHP-FUZZ方法的高校节能评价方法

根据综合评价指标体系建立的原则,建立了高校节能评价指标体系。利用层次模糊(AHPFUZZ)综合评价方法,分别计算各指标权重和建立评判矩阵,根据加权平均的方式提出高校节能效果评价方法。评价方法对定性评估高校节能效果提供了定量计算依据,对评估实际节能工程改造效果具有指导作用。     

Study of the effects of bisphenol A using human fetal lung fibroblasts

正Bisphenol A(BPA,2,2-bis(4-hydroxyphenyl)propane;CAS#80-05-7)is a highly produced industrial chemical,with an estimated four billion kilograms produced worldwide each year(reviewed in Vandenberg et al.,2010).BPA serves as a monomer in the manufacture of polycarbonate,a hard,clear plastic.Polycarbonate plastics are used in many consumer products,such as reusable water bottles.BPA is also widely used to make epoxy resins,which are used as coating on the inside of some     

Bidirectional visibility

The percentage of the cross-sectional area of two objects (e.g., vehicles, hikers, or animals) that can be seen from each of their locations in a forested area is generally not the same. There is a directionality to the visibility between them. This is due to the relative positions and sizes of the vegetation and other view-blocking features between the objects. An analytical technique has been developed to help understand bidirectional visibility. Its use entails the construction of a visibility diagram containing the basic visibility information between observers in a given setting. An example is presented showing the use of the visibility diagram to determine visibility between two moving observers in a forested environment. The diagram is also used to determine the differences in the percentage each observer has of the other's visible cross-sectional area (bidirectional visibility). A discussion of the application of the technique in the planning or development of new facilities, as well as in forest and wildlife management, is provided.     

A strategy for integrated monitoring

Administrative machinery has been set up to regulate and control most of the emissions that are known to have severe local consequences, such as the discharge of raw sewage into rivers and lakes and the smokestack emission of air pollutants. Now, the nature of environmental degradation is usually different. We are faced with pollutants and effects with more subtle cause-effect relationships, often characterized by larger geographic areas of interest and longer term potential damage; the potential risk is now more chronic than acute. Acid rain and climate change are good examples, in that they are associated with a variety of pollutants from a number of sources and damage to ecosystems occurs over many years. It is argued that monitoring programs should evolve to reflect the changing nature of the environmental problems they are addressing. It is now necessary to consider interactions among many pollutants, mixing among the various media, and potentially affecting many components of the ecosystem in both indirect and direct ways. Here, integrated monitoring and analysis is presented as a unifying strategy to bring together different measurement methodologies in different disciplines, addressing environmental questions of complexity beyond the scope of many existing activites that have a classical narrower focus. The underlying concept is of nested networks, each tier being composed of sites selected for specific purposes but arranged to maximize the number of common sites where more multidisciplinary questions can be addressed.     

Livestock grazing and habitat for a threatened species: Land-use decisions under scientific uncertainty in the White Mountains,California, USA

The North Fork of Cottonwood Creek, in the White Mountains, Inyo National Forest, California, is a critically important refuge for the Paiute cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki seleniris), a federally listed threatened species. Habitat for these fish appears to be limited by excessive levels of fine sediment in the channel, and livestock grazing of riparian meadows has been implicated in delivery of sediment to the channel. However, the relationships between land use and sediment yield have not been conclusively determined, in large part because there are no historically ungrazed sites to serve as long-term controls. Accordingly, land-use decisions must be made under scientific uncertainty. To reduce erosion and sedimentation in the stream, the Forest Service spent approximately US$260,000 from 1981 to 1991 to repair watershed damage from livestock grazing, prevent livestock from traversing steep banks, and limit livestock access to the channel. Throughout this period, livestock grazing has continued on these lands, yielding less than $12,000 in grazing fees. In revising its Allotment Management Plan for the basin, the Forest Service rejected the “no-grazing” alternative because it was inconsistent with its Land and Resource Management Plan, which specifies there is to be no net reduction of grazing. Joint appointment with the University of California White Mountain Research Station, East Line Street, Bishop, California 93518, USA.