一种新的时间序列预报方法及其应用

本文叙述了作者提出的时间序列预报方法的基本原理,介绍了这一方法在应用过程中的发展及在实际部门应用的情况,其中包括异常旱涝灾害预报及方法的改进等最新成果。     

Changes in the Population Phenetic Structure of the Lacebug Dictyla humuli (Fabr.) (Heteroptera,Tingidae) in the Usman' Forest (Voronezh Oblast) in 1999–2001

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

灾难危急时刻的管理

灾难危急时刻的管理往往是出乎于原有的抗灾计划的。研究发现,成功的灾害管理主要来源于应急组织的作用,特别是当管理中存在着信息交流、职权行使和协调发展等方面的问题时更是如此。事先的救灾计划可以减少但却不能完全消除这些管理上的问题。     

MULTIPLICATIVE,SEASONAL ARIMA MODELS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)₁₂. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy.     

BUFFER STRIPS TO PROTECT WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS: A MODEL AND RECOMMENDATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Buffer strips are undisturbed, naturally vegetated zones around water supply reservoirs and their tributaries that are a recognized and integral aspect of watershed management. These strips can be very effective in protecting the quality of public potable water supply reservoirs by removing sediment and associated pollutants, reducing bank erosion, and displacing activities from the water's edge that represent potential sources of nonpoint source pollutant generation. As part of a comprehensive watershed management protect for the State of New Jersey, a parameter-based buffer strip model was developed for application to all watersheds above water supply intakes or reservoirs. Input requirements for the model include a combination of slope, width, and time of travel. The application of the model to a watershed in New Jersey with a recommended buffer strip width that ranges from 50 to 300 feet, depending upon a number of assumptions, results in from 6 to 13 percent of the watershed above the reservoir being occupied by the buffer.     

1：1000000中国草地资源图的编制与研究

编制１：１００００００中国草地资源图（以下简称《草地图》）是＂１９７８～１９８５年中国科学技术发展规划＂中的一项重点研究课题。首先在全国约８００万ｋm₂草地分布区的２０００多个县内进行野外实地调查和产草量测定,辅以航、卫片校核,编绘县级１：５万或１：１０万草地类型图、草地等级图、草地利用现状图。然后采用系列制图方法,遵照全国统一的编制规范和制图综合原则,用上述县级草地图逐级缩编成国家级１：１００万草地资源图。该图在不同的制图区域──牧区、半农半牧区、农区有不同的地理要素选择标准;不同的图斑表现级;不同的最小图斑面积。《草地图》除传统地表现草地植被类型外,还表现草地利用性状,按制图单元进行草地等级评价。用变距等高距选取了少量对划分草地类型界线、重要牧草分布界线、季节草地界线有重要指示意义的等高线。     

带翼斜板设备处理石油污水的研究

在多层斜极分离设备的斜板下方安装一系列与料板垂直的翼板，构成了带翼斜板设备。把该设备用于石油污水的脱油处理，研究发现其具有较高的脱油效率和脱油深度。在进口含油浓度介于200～600mg／L之间，停留时间27.6min，平均脱油效率可达93．8％，出口平均含油浓度为1．8mg／L，粒径大于40μm的油滴基本均可脱除。文中还对进口含油浓度在300～400mg／L之间的出口含油浓度与表面负荷率的关系进行了论述。     

论“限期治理”的法律性质

“限期治理”是我国环境保护法的一项基本制度,文章从四个方面详尽地阐述了“限期治理”决定不是一种行政处罚行为,即“限期治理”决定不具有行政处罚的一般特征;“限期治理”决定并并未对行政管理相对人的权利作任何否定;该决定不会影响行政管理相对人固有权利义务的消长;从“环保法”法典的篇章结构安排上和行政行为的性质上分析,“限期治理”决定也不是一种行政处罚行为。正确理解“限期治理”的法律性质,可以避免对企业行     

SB-A型系列造纸白水回收塔应用研究

介绍SB -A型系列造纸白水回收塔的结构、性能及适用的工艺条件 ,实践表明 ,SB -A型系列造纸白水回收塔回收浆料效率高 ,效益显著