亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平的相关性分析

为探讨亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平之间的关系,选择能够反映区域整体发展水平,又与安全生产密切相关的影响因素,通过统计年鉴获取大量数据的基础上,从时间和空间2个维度,采用SPSS数据统计软件对亿元GDP死亡率和13个定量影响因素、5个定性影响因素之间的Spearman相关系数进行计算,排除区域发展水平的极度差异,在总体趋势上,亿元GDP死亡率与各相关因素的相关性在时间和空间2个维度上保持较好的一致性。计算结果表明,各地区可从提高经济发展水平、优化产业结构、大力发展科学教育事业、提高医疗卫生水平和健全法制体系等方面降低亿元GDP死亡率,改善当地的安全生产水平,该结论能为各区域控制亿元GDP死亡率,对安全生产进行宏观调控提供科学依据。     

瓦斯浓度区间预测的灰色聚类与高斯过程模型

为有效分析矿井瓦斯监测数据,以实现准确、可靠的瓦斯浓度预测,基于灰色关联聚类分析与高斯过程回归模型,研究瓦斯浓度时间序列分析与预测的方法。以预测有效度为预测精度的评估指标来动态确定重构瓦斯浓度时间序列样本空间的维数;应用灰色关联分析方法将瓦斯浓度时间序列划分成若干样本集,将其中具有关联特征的样本作为虚拟变量进行预测以消除因随机、不确定因素干扰而引起的预测误差;应用高斯过程回归模型实现瓦斯浓度区间预测,将预测结果表示成一个具有较高可信度的取值区间,以此表达对未来一段时间内瓦斯浓度动态变化情况的预测。实例分析表明:预测结果准确、可靠,能够较好地反映瓦斯浓度的实际变化状况。     

水平管道内铝粉爆炸特性的试验研究

为研究铝粉在密闭空间内爆炸特性,降低其爆炸造成的损害,利用自行设计的水平管道式可燃气体-粉尘爆炸装置,在室温下对粒度为6～8μm,9～12μm,15～17μm的铝粉在100～800 g/m3浓度范围内的爆炸特性进行试验研究。结果表明:铝粉在浓度为600 g/m3时,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率最大,爆炸时间最小;铝粉浓度较低时,由于氧气充足,随着铝粉浓度增大,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率增大,爆炸时间减小;当铝粉浓度超过600 g/m3,受到氧气浓度限制,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率随浓度增大而减小,爆炸时间增大;相同浓度的铝粉,粒度越小,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率越大,爆炸时间越小。粒度越小的铝粉,爆炸的可能性和危险性越大。     

典型娱乐场所火灾期间人员行为分析

建筑火灾的频发,引起人们对火灾过程中人员行为的极大关注。利用视频信息提取典型公共娱乐场所火灾过程中不同人员在火灾迹象觉察和确认时间的差异,又结合FDS模拟得到的火灾温度场变化规律,分析了人员在火灾期间的不同行为表现以及相应的非理性心理状态,指出了相关的主客观原因,有利于加强人们的火灾灾害意识和安全逃生意识;同时文中的相关结论也可以为建筑物消防性能化设计、人员安全疏散提供参考。     

基于HHT方法的矿井瓦斯体积分数预测

为有效分析煤矿瓦斯监测数据以实现较准确的瓦斯浓度预测,研究应用希尔伯特-黄变换(HHT)方法进行瓦斯浓度时间序列分析与预测的方法。应用经验模态分解(EMD)方法将瓦斯浓度时间序列分解成不同频率的固有模态函数(IMF)分量的叠加,以获取瓦斯浓度时间序列的瞬时特征;通过Hilbert变换求得各IMF分量的瞬时频率,依据各IMF分量瞬时频率的均值将分解得到的IMF划分成较高频和低频2类新的分量,选取适合于各分量特征的预测模型分别进行预测,以消除局部随机性对预测精度的影响,结合自回归(AR)、径向基函数(RBF)神经网络和支持向量机(SVM)3种预测模型实现瓦斯浓度预测。实例分析表明:应用该方法所得预测结果比较准确,降低了预测复杂度,提高了预测精度。     

基于回归分析的群集疏散时间模型优化研究

为提高国际上通用的疏散时间模型(简称经验模型)的仿真度,将人员的属性因素(自然属性和社会属性)影响纳入时间模型,采用回归分析方法,以某高校大型大学生艺术中心疏散案例为研究基础,通过调查采样建立185组数据的实测样本。结合影响人员疏散行为和疏散时间相关因素,运用统计软件SPSS17.0对样本进行回归分析,建立疏散时间回归模型。以回归模型为基础,将个体属性综合为群集属性,求取修正系数并对经验模型进行修正、检验。结果表明:利用回归分析和修正系数对疏散时间经验模型进行修正,可有效弥补经验模型缺乏考虑群集属性影响的弱点,提高经验模型的仿真度和应用价值。     

热水介质＋脱附破乳组剂处理高凝固点油泥的条件研究

通过热水介质添加脱附破乳组剂的方法,研究了辽河油田公司沈阳采油厂油泥分离的相关条件。通过油泥的组分分析、热水介质温度实验、处理时间实验、脱附破乳组剂浓度实验,确定了热水介质添加脱附破乳组剂实现油泥分离的条件:脱附破乳组剂浓度为15.0 g/L、洗涤温度50℃、洗涤时间大于5 min。     

中国主要客源地进出口贸易与入境旅游发展关系的研究

基于1995—2008年统计数据,从洲际和客源国两个层面入手,分析客源地进出口贸易总额和入境客流总量的关系,选取1995—2008年我国同各洲(国)的进出口贸易和入境客流量的案板数据,建立入境客流量和进出口贸易总额的统计方程,分析两者间的相互关系。同时,分析了贸易市场占有率和客源市场占有率的关系,选取1995—2008年对外贸易和入境旅游的相关数据,计算出各洲(国)贸易和客源的市场占有率,分析其变化规律。     

Trends in Pesticide Concentrations in Streamsof the Western United States, 1993‐20051

Johnson, Henry M., Joseph L. Domagalski, and Dina K. Saleh, 2010. Trends in Pesticide Concentrations in Streams of the Western United States, 1993‐2005. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 00(0):1‐22. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00507.x Abstract: Trends in pesticide concentrations for 15 streams in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho were determined for the organophosphate insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon and the herbicides atrazine, s‐ethyl diproplythiocarbamate (EPTC), metolachlor, simazine, and trifluralin. A parametric regression model was used to account for flow, seasonality, and antecedent hydrologic conditions and thereby estimate trends in pesticide concentrations in streams arising from changes in use amount and application method in their associated catchments. Decreasing trends most often were observed for diazinon, and reflect the shift to alternative pesticides by farmers, commercial applicators, and homeowners because of use restrictions and product cancelation. Consistent trends were observed for several herbicides, including upward trends in simazine at urban‐influenced sites from 2000 to 2005, and downward trends in atrazine and EPTC at agricultural sites from the mid‐1990s to 2005. The model provided additional information about pesticide occurrence and transport in the modeled streams. Two examples are presented and briefly discussed: (1) timing of peak concentrations for individual compounds varied greatly across this geographic gradient because of different application periods and the effects of local rain patterns, irrigation, and soil drainage and (2) reconstructions of continuous diazinon concentrations at sites in California are used to evaluate compliance with total maximum daily load targets.     

Impacts of Land‐Cover Change on Suspended Sediment Transport in Two Agricultural Watersheds1

Schilling, Keith E., Thomas M. Isenhart, Jason A. Palmer, Calvin F. Wolter, and Jean Spooner, 2011. Impacts of Land‐Cover Change on Suspended Sediment Transport in Two Agricultural Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):672‐686. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00533.x Abstract: Suspended sediment is a major water quality problem, yet few monitoring studies have been of sufficient scale and duration to assess the effectiveness of land‐use change or conservation practice implementation at a watershed scale. Daily discharge and suspended sediment export from two 5,000‐ha watersheds in central Iowa were monitored over a 10‐year period (water years 1996‐2005). In Walnut Creek watershed, a large portion of land was converted from row crop to native prairie, whereas in Squaw Creek land use remained predominantly row crop agriculture. Suspended sediment loads were similar in both watersheds, exhibiting flashy behavior typical of incised channels. Modeling suggested that expected total soil erosion in Walnut Creek should have been reduced 46% relative to Squaw Creek due to changes in land use, yet measured suspended sediment loads showed no significant differences. Stream mapping indicated that Walnut Creek had three times more eroding streambank lengths than did Squaw Creek suggesting that streambank erosion dominated sediment sources in Walnut Creek and sheet and rill sources dominated sediment sources in Squaw Creek. Our results demonstrate that an accounting of all sources of sediment erosion and delivery is needed to characterize sediment reductions in watershed projects combined with long‐term, intensive monitoring and modeling to account for possible lag times in the manifestation of the benefits of conservation practices on water quality.