EXAMINING LAND USE INFLUENCES ON STREAM HABITATS AND MACROINVERTEBRATES: A GIS APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to assess the relationships between land use patterns and the physical habitat and macroinvertebrate fauna of streams within similar sized watersheds. Eleven second or third order watersheds ranging from highly urbanized to heavily forested were selected along Lake Superior's North Shore. Land use patterns within the watersheds were quantified using readily available digital land use/land cover information, with a minimum mapping resolution of 16 ha. Physical habitat features, describing substrate characteristics and stream morphology, were characterized at sample points within each stream. Principle component and correlation analyses were used to identify relationships between macroinvertebrates and stream physical habitat, and between habitat and land use patterns. Substrate characteristics and presence of coarse woody debris were found to have the strongest correlations with macreinvertebrate assemblage richness and composition. Agricultural and urban land use was correlated with substrate characteristics. Algal abundance, associated with macroinvertebrate compositional differences, was correlated with housing density and non-forest land covers. The use of readily available spatial data, even at this relatively coarse scale, provides a means to detect the primary relationships between land use and stream habitat quality; finer-resolution GIS databases are needed to assess more subtle influences, such as those due to riparian conditions.     

THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

Wellhead treatment costs for groundwater contaminated with pesticides: A preliminary analysis for pineapple in Hawaii

In Hawaii, trace concentrations of pesticides used in the production of pineapple were found in the groundwater supplies of Mililani Town in the Pearl Harbor Basin on the island of Oahu. Groundwater serves as the major source of drinking water and residents pay for wellhead treatment of the contaminated water, via their monthly water bill. The agricultural chemical users within the Pearl Harbor Basin do not include these wellhead treatment costs in their production costs. The agricultural industry benefits from using pesticides but does not pay the entire societal cost of using these chemicals. In this study we evaluate the specific financial cost of wellhead treatment, and not the economic value of groundwater. While wellhead treatment costs could conceivably be shared by several parties, this study focuses on the financial impact of the pineapple industry alone. This study factors annual wellhead treatment costs into annual pineapple production costs to measure the effect on annual financial return from pineapple production. Wellhead treatment costs are calculated from the existing granulated activated carbon (GAC) water treatment facility for Millilani Wells I and II. Pineapple production costs are estimated from previous cost of production studies. The inclusion of wellhead treatment costs produces different production-cost results, depending on the scale of analysis. At the local scale, the Mililani wellhead treatment costs can be factored into the production costs of the pineapple fields, which were probably responsible for contamination of the Mililani Wells, without causing a deficit in economic return. At the larger regional scale, however, the return from all of the pineapple grown in the Pearl Harbor Basin can not sustain the cost of wellhead treatmentfor the entire water supply of the basin. Recommendations point to the prevention of groundwater contamination as more cost-effective measure than wellhead treatment.     

Habitat, Landscape and Bird Composition in Mountain Forest Fragments

The study attempts to separate the effects of forest fragmentation related to landscape (patch area, isolation) and habitat (altitude, vegetation structure) on bird community composition in a mountain pine forest. Bird composition was related, using a multivariate approach (canonical correspondence analyses), to either habitat or to landscape, eliminating the effect of habitat statistically. Bird composition and species richness varied with patch area and isolation from large pine stands, but this effect could be assigned principally to variation in vegetation structure and altitude. Another effect, that of increasing occurrence and numbers of Anthus trivialis with decreasing distance to nearest low-altitude forest, could be assigned to both habitat (grass cover) and landscape (connectivity effects). Management implications are drawn from the results.     

云南省自然灾害成因探讨及减灾对策

本文在分析云南40年自然灾害灾情及其形成和发生环境背景的基础上,预测了未来10年云南灾害发展趋势,提出了在云南实现防灾减灾的战略措施。     

黄土滑坡稳定性评价的反演分析

本文根据黄土滑坡的变形监测结果，同时考虑了边坡的初期应变分布状况，通过有限元反分析法，反推出边坡地基的力学参数，为黄土滑坡的稳定性评价和预报提供了可靠的依据。     

Impact of right-of-way construction on vegetation in the Red Lake Peatland,northern Minnesota

During the winters of 1978–79 and 1979–80, a 500-kV electrical transmission right-of-way (r-o-w) was constructed across the Red Lake Peatland in northwestern Minnesota, the largest contiguous peatland in the lower 48 states of the USA. Immediately before, and for two years following construction, vascular vegetation was monitored within the r-o-w and in undisturbed control areas. Monitoring was carried out in five vegetation types: a thicket swamp, a low shrub bog, a graminoid fen, a treed bog, and a treed fen. Evaluation of construction impacts was based on vegetation structure, irrespective of species composition, and on community composition (species data for low shrubs and herbs). Construction eliminated trees from the r-o-w. Vegetation structure, excluding trees, was markedly altered in the two bog types and the treed fen type in the first postconstruction growing season. By the second season, measurable recovery to control levels had begun. The sample plots were placed into a previously developed vegetation classification system for the Red Lake Peatland, on the basis of herbs and low shrubs. There was a shift in composition in the low shrub bog and in the treed vegetation types following construction. Results of both methods of data analysis were consistent. Major vegetation changes following construction occurred in the low shrub bog and treed types. The open, low-stature fen types showed almost no changes related to construction. Even in the affected types, all vegetation strata except trees were returning to their preconstruction status by the second growing season following construction.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

Inner City regeneration: perspectives on the G.E.A.R. Project

Government responses to the problems of the inner city currently focus on comprehensive programmes of positive discrimination. The first and most extensive is the G.E.A.R. project in Glasgow. Regular monitoring of the effectiveness of such large‐scale initiatives is essential. If the physical and social aims of such policies are to be realised, assessments must utilise both objective and subjective indicators.     

BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1

Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts.