延安地区明代、清代干旱灾害与气候变化对比研究

根据延安地区历史时期旱灾资料,研究了该地区明清旱灾差异和气候的不同。结果表明,延安地区明代(1368-1643年)276年内,共发生旱灾115次,平均每2.4年发生1次;其中轻度旱灾17次,中度旱灾52次,大旱灾34次,特大旱灾12次。清代(1644-1912年)的269年里,共发生旱灾35次,平均7.7年发生1次;其中轻度旱灾6次,中度旱灾25次,大旱灾3次,特大旱灾1次。延安地区明清旱灾差异显著,明代旱灾频次是清代的3.2倍;明代旱灾等级比清代高,前者大旱灾与特大旱灾占旱灾总数的40%,后者的仅占11.6%。明代干旱气候事件频繁,清代干旱气候事件少见。延安地区明代旱灾发生频繁和等级高的原因是当时气候变干和干旱气候事件频繁出现引起的,说明明代是气候较为干旱的时期。延安地区清代旱灾频次低和等级低是当时降水量较多的结果,说明清代是较湿润的时期。明代和清代大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为440mm左右,特大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为360mm左右。     

基于长时间序列的北京PM2.5浓度日变化及气象条件影响分析

基于2005~2014年北京宝联(城区)和上甸子大气成分本底站(郊区)监测结果得到了PM_(2.5)质量浓度日变化特征,并且讨论了气象条件的影响.结果表明,北京城区PM_(2.5)质量浓度10年平均值的日变化呈双峰分布,对应早晚出行高峰.但是,该特征在2007年以后才比较明显.月际(季节)变化表现为单峰与双峰之间、日最大值在早高峰与晚高峰之间的转换.一年中早峰值浓度在5~8月最高,与地面风速小、相对湿度以及水汽压(空气绝对含水量)较高有关,该季节晚高峰期间浓度变化相对较小主要受混合层较厚、地面风速大、降雨天气发生频繁的影响.11~12月和1~2月的16:00以后浓度明显升高,混合层顶高度在14:00~17:00大幅度下降是重要的影响因素.此外,严重和重度污染日09:00以后污染加重,与年平均值和中度污染日不同.边界层偏南风对来自周边地区高架源的污染物输送是其重要的影响机制.PM_(2.5)质量浓度日变化幅度随污染加重而增大.日最大风速和相对湿度日变化对浓度日变化幅度有影响,而且午后地面出现4~6 m·s-1的偏南风也会加大日变化幅度.北京郊区PM_(2.5)质量浓度多年平均值日变化呈单峰分布,日最大值超前于城区.而且,昼间的浓度在5~7月高于冬季.本研究结果将有助于细化不利扩散条件下的污染减排方案.     

西安泾河夏季黑碳气溶胶及其吸收特性的观测研究

为研究西安泾河夏季黑碳气溶胶及其吸收特性,利用2011年夏季西安远郊泾河大气成分站观测的黑碳气溶胶浓度、颗粒物质量浓度、探空资料、地面气象资料,计算边界层顶高度、气溶胶吸收系数、大气消光系数,导出单次散射反照率,并对其进行分析讨论.结果表明:西安夏季黑碳气溶胶浓度为6.07μg/m3;黑碳气溶胶占颗粒物质量浓度PM1.0比值为21.9%,黑碳气溶胶与颗粒物质量浓度PM1.0、PM2.5、PM10相关系数分别为0.69、0.85、0.91;黑碳气溶胶浓度受城市边界层顶高度影响,风向、风速对泾河黑碳气溶胶的堆积输送有不同作用;气溶胶吸收系数和大气消光系数日变化显著,气溶胶吸收系数占大气消光系数比值范围在12%~30%;季单次散射反照率平均值为0.76,变化范围在0.70~0.84.     

基于Bow-tie模型的甲醇污水净化站风险分析

对甲醇污水净化站采用Bow-tie模型开展风险分析,辨识净化站存在的主要危险源,对危险源进行风险评估,分析各类屏障的有效性,制定管控措施,为进一步提高甲醇污水净化站安全管理水平,提升安全生产水平提供可借鉴的经验。     

Ethylenediurea (EDU) pretreatment alleviated the adverse effects of elevated O3 on Populus alba “Berolinensis” in an urban area

Ethylenediurea(EDU)has been used as a chemical protectant against ozone(03).However,its protective effect and physiological mechanisms are still uncertain.The present study aimed to investigate the changes of foliar visible injury,physiological characteristics and emission rates of volatile organic compounds(VOCs)in one-year-old Populus alba"Berolinensis"saplings pretreated with EDU and exposed to elevated O_3(EO,120μg/m~3).The results showed that foliar visible injury symptoms under EO were significantly alleviated in plants with EDU application(p0.05).Under EO,net photosynthetic rate,the maximum photochemical efficiency of PSII and the photochemical efficiency of PSII of plants pretreated with 300 and600 mg/L EDU were similar to unexposed controls and significantly higher compared to EOstressed plants without EDU pretreatment,respectively.Malondialdehyde content was highest in EO without EDU and decreased significantly by 14.9%and 21.3%with 300 and600 mg/L EDU pretreatment,respectively.EDU pretreatment alone increased superoxide dismutase activity by 10-fold in unexposed plants with further increases of 88.4%and 37.5%in EO plants pretreated with 300 and 600 mg/L EDU pretreatment,respectively(p0.05).Abscisic acid content declined under EO relative to unexposed controls with the effect partially reversed by EDU pretreatments.Similarly,VOCs emission rate declined under EO relative to unexposed plants with a recovery of emission rate observed with 300 and 600 mg/L EDU pretreatment.These findings provided significant evidence that EDU exerted a beneficial effect and protection on the tested plants against 03 stress.     

国外事件及事件旅游研究进展与启示

通过检索近年来的相关期刊，同时参考相关专著，从研究内容和研究方法两个方面分别进行分析，认为事件旅游的体验、动机、规划与管理、影响、模式与进程是当前事件旅游研究的主要内容，研究方法主要表现为结合具体案例的描述性分析和统计抽样分析。结果宏观地反映了近些年来国外事件旅游研究的现状，提出了事件旅游研究的未来趋势。     

Evaluation of interventions to make top tether hardware more visible during child restraint system (CRS) installations

Objectives: The objective of the study is to determine whether specific child restraint system (CRS) or vehicle conditions improve top tether attachment rates during volunteer installations.

Methods: A factorial randomized controlled trial was designed to evaluate 4 different experimental categories: (1) Color of tether adjuster casing (black or red), (2) labeling on tether adjuster casing (labeled with “Tether: Use for forward-facing” or unlabeled), (3) storage location of tether (bundled in a rubber band on the back of CRS or Velcroed over the forward-facing belt path), and (4) labeling in vehicle (labeled under head restraint and below anchor or unlabeled). Ninety-six volunteers were randomly assigned to one combination of conditions. One installation per volunteer was completed. The primary outcome measure was acceptable attachment of the top tether to the tether anchor. The secondary outcome measure was overall secureness of the installation. Pearson’s chi-square tests were used to identify significant predictors of acceptable outcomes and logistic regression was used to investigate interaction effects.

Results: A total of 66/96 subjects (68.8%) attached the top tether in an acceptable manner, with either zero errors (n?=?50) or minor errors (n?=?16). A total of 30/96 subjects (31.2%) had unacceptable tether outcomes, with either major errors (n?=?10) or nonuse the tether at all (n?=?20). None of the 4 experimental categories significantly affected tether outcomes. Subjects who opted to install the CRS with the lower anchors (LAs) had higher rates of acceptable tether attachment compared to subjects who installed using the seat belt or those who used both LA and seat belt together (χ² = 6.792, P = .034). Tether outcomes were not correlated with previous CRS experience, use of instruction manual(s), age, or sex. Only 15.6% of subjects produced overall correct and tight installations. Of those who used the seat belt in some manner, 70.2% neglected to switch the retractor into locking mode.

Conclusions: Conditions in this study including tether color, tether labeling, storage location, and vehicle labeling did not significantly affect tether attachment rates. High rates of tether misuse and nonuse warrant further exploration to find effective solutions to this usability problem.     

轨顶排烟口对地铁地下车站火灾排烟效果影响研究

为了研究取消轨顶风口对地铁地下车站火灾防排烟的影响，采用CFD方法，针对全封闭站台门系统和全高站台门系统2种典型地铁车站，模拟车站公共区火灾和车站列车火灾发生时，有无轨顶风口对车站内排烟效果的影响。研究结果表明:针对车站公共区火灾，无论是全封闭站台门还是全高站台门系统，取消轨顶排烟口对公共区烟气温度、可见度、CO浓度等影响较低；但针对车站列车火灾，取消轨顶排烟口对公共区烟气温度、可见度、CO浓度均具有较大影响，排烟效果下降较多。     

重大安全风险事件特征再认识——以新冠肺炎疫情为例

本文系统回顾了新冠肺炎疫情的发生、传播、爆发,以及下一步发展等问题的客观现状,在此基础上深入探讨了重大安全风险事件的形态新颖性、发生意外性、发展爆炸性、演变复杂性等特征。结合对特征的认识,本文给出了针对重大安全风险事件治理者在防灾、备灾、抗灾、救灾方面的启示与建议。     

2013年1月中国大面积雾霾事件直接社会经济损失评估

基于2013年1月期间全国20个受到雾霾事件影响的省市的公开报道数据,综合采用直接损失评估法、疾病成本法和人力资本法,对雾霾事件造成的交通和健康直接经济损失进行评估.评估结果显示,2013年1月雾霾事件造成的全国交通和健康的直接经济损失保守估计约230亿元,其中损失最大的省市主要分布在东部和京津冀区域;雾霾事件中仅急/门诊的健康终端的经济损失占总直接损失的98%,相当于现有文献研究结果中对非雾霾事件情况下颗粒物污染造成的所有健康终端损失的近2倍.