山区坡顶建筑荷载作用下顺层粘土边坡稳定性分析

基于摩尔库伦本构模型和SRM法,利用MIDAS GTS NX有限元数值模拟软件,结合镇雄县某滑坡治理区域新出现隐患应急抢险工程施工方案,将该边坡在天然状态、砌石挡土墙加固、抗滑桩加固、抗滑桩+锚杆锚索框格梁加固4种工况模拟结果与现场实际情况进行对比,分析边坡及坡顶建筑稳定性。得出以下结论:该边坡砌石挡土墙的加固作用低于天然削坡状态;坡顶建筑为一层时,天然削坡的安全系数为1.069,存在安全隐患,在类似边坡修筑浅基础房屋前应对边坡进行加固处理;抗滑桩加固对坡脚滑动体起到了良好限制作用,此时边坡安全系数为1.184,仍存在安全隐患;锚杆锚索框格梁对边坡加固时,坡顶建筑与抗滑桩最大变形分别为4.92 cm与3.26 cm,相比抗滑桩加固缩小41.4%与30.2%,安全系数为1.622,相对抗滑提高40.0%,此时边坡处于安全状态。为类似边坡治理工程提供参考。     

金华旱涝趋势统计分析

根据对旱涝自身变化及其与太阳黑子活动，厄尔尼诺事件关系的分析，，得出了金华旱涝趋势的几点认识：（1）在未来的十几年之内，金华站将从涝年占优势的阶段转入旱年占优势的阶段；（2）在太阳黑子活动22年的磁周期转变年前后，金华站3年平均年降水量明显偏多；（3）在春季型厄尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量偏多；（4）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日，那么次年金华站年降水量偏多；（5）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大，对金华站年降水量的影响也越大；（6）在太阳黑子活动22年磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量明显偏多。这些认识对长期及超长期的旱涝趋势预测具有重要的现实意义。     

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR1

ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.     

1962～2012年西南地区极端温度事件时空变化特征

基于西南地区88站1962~2012年日气温数据,采用百分位阈值法定义极端温度事件,结合线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall秩次相关法、反距离加权插值法对其时空变化进行了分析。结果表明:极端温度指数存在明显的空间分布差异,暖日指数、暖夜指数、冷夜指数和年内日最低气温整体上均由东南向西北逐渐降低;霜冻天指数则由东南向西北部逐渐升高,西北部梯度变化明显;冷日指数和年内日最高气温呈马鞍状分布,较高值均在西南和东北部;因多数地区高温天数极少,故没有明显的梯度变化。霜冻天指数、冷夜指数和冷日指数减少趋势明显,分别为2.7、4.6和3.5d/10a;暖日指数和暖夜指数、年内日最低气温和最高气温均呈增加趋势,分别为3.6、4.9、0.4和0.1℃/10a;高温天指数变化不显著。整体上来看,西南地区极端高温事件和极端低温事件分别呈上升和下降趋势,但有部分区域呈相反变化趋势,体现出西南地区气候变化的独特性。     

特厚煤层不同开采阶段"弱-弱"结构覆岩破坏高度研究

为了确定老虎台矿特厚煤层不同开采阶段"弱-弱"结构覆岩破坏高度,以63005工作面所在区域为研究对象,构建FLAC3D数值计算模型,对研究区域水砂充填开采阶段和综采放顶煤开采阶段覆岩破坏高度进行分析,确定了覆岩破坏高度与采出厚度的关系.分别采用微震监测、EH-4探测法对研究结果进行了验证.结果表明:无论水砂充填开采阶段还是综采放顶煤开采阶段,老虎台矿"弱-弱"结构覆岩最大破坏高度均约为等效采高的8.5倍;63005工作面开采前后,覆岩破裂最大高度与油母页岩和绿色页岩的分界面密切相关,均被控制在分界面之下;覆岩破坏高度受到F18断层的影响,被约束在断层破碎带沿走向范围内;63005工作面开采后,绿色页岩层中F18断层的下盘出现离层破坏,且破坏范围呈逐步扩大的趋势.     

Evaluation of Vehicle-Based Crash Severity Metrics

Objective: Vehicle change in velocity (delta-v) is a widely used crash severity metric used to estimate occupant injury risk. Despite its widespread use, delta-v has several limitations. Of most concern, delta-v is a vehicle-based metric which does not consider the crash pulse or the performance of occupant restraints, e.g. seatbelts and airbags. Such criticisms have prompted the search for alternative impact severity metrics based upon vehicle kinematics. The purpose of this study was to assess the ability of the occupant impact velocity (OIV), acceleration severity index (ASI), vehicle pulse index (VPI), and maximum delta-v (delta-v) to predict serious injury in real world crashes.

Methods: The study was based on the analysis of event data recorders (EDRs) downloaded from the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) 2000–2013 cases. All vehicles in the sample were GM passenger cars and light trucks involved in a frontal collision. Rollover crashes were excluded. Vehicles were restricted to single-event crashes that caused an airbag deployment. All EDR data were checked for a successful, completed recording of the event and that the crash pulse was complete. The maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS) was used to describe occupant injury outcome. Drivers were categorized into either non-seriously injured group (MAIS2?) or seriously injured group (MAIS3+), based on the severity of any injuries to the thorax, abdomen, and spine. ASI and OIV were calculated according to the Manual for Assessing Safety Hardware. VPI was calculated according to ISO/TR 12353-3, with vehicle-specific parameters determined from U.S. New Car Assessment Program crash tests. Using binary logistic regression, the cumulative probability of injury risk was determined for each metric and assessed for statistical significance, goodness-of-fit, and prediction accuracy.

Results: The dataset included 102,744 vehicles. A Wald chi-square test showed each vehicle-based crash severity metric estimate to be a significant predictor in the model (p < 0.05). For the belted drivers, both OIV and VPI were significantly better predictors of serious injury than delta-v (p < 0.05). For the unbelted drivers, there was no statistically significant difference between delta-v, OIV, VPI, and ASI.

Conclusions: The broad findings of this study suggest it is feasible to improve injury prediction if we consider adding restraint performance to classic measures, e.g. delta-v. Applications, such as advanced automatic crash notification, should consider the use of different metrics for belted versus unbelted occupants.     

Flux characteristics of total dissolved iron and its species during extreme rainfall event in the midstream of the Heilongjiang River

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and associated flooding has been enhanced due to climate changes, and is thought to influence the flux of total dissolved iron(TDI) in rivers considerably. Since TDI is a controlling factor in primary productivity in marine ecosystems, alteration of riverine TDI input to the ocean may lead to climate change via its effect on biological productivity. During an extreme rainfall event that arose in northeastern China in 2013, water samples were collected in the midstream of the Heilongjiang River to analyze the concentration and species of TDI as well as other basic parameters. The speciation of TDI was surveyed by filtration and ultrafiltration methods.Compared with data monitored from 2007 to 2012, the concentration of TDI increased significantly during this event, with an average concentration of 1.11 mg/L, and the estimated TDI flux reached 1.2 × 105 tons, equaling the average annual TDI flux level.Species analysis revealed that low-molecular-weight complexed iron was the dominant species, and the impulse of TDI flux could probably be attributed to the hydrological connection to riparian wetlands and iron-rich terrestrial runoff. Moreover, dissolved organic matter played a key role in the flux, species and bioavailability of TDI. In addition,there is a possibility that the rising TDI flux could further influence the transport and cycling of nutrients and related ecological processes in the river, estuary coupled with the coastal ecosystems, which merits closer attention in the future.     

上下导气系统对生物反应器压实垃圾中渗滤液和填埋气迁移的影响研究

建立了2组实验室模拟填埋场生物反应器,利用上层和下层同时导排填埋气的方法,研究了填埋气和渗滤液在垃圾体中的产生和迁移情况.并在考虑渗滤液回灌的情况下,设置了C1(渗滤液回灌前加压)、C2(渗滤液回灌后加压)2组对照实验.结果表明,C1在加压后出现短暂的水位雍高现象并在第33 d后消失,而C2一直未出现水位雍高现象,上下同时导气系统能促进渗滤液和填埋气排出,#有效缓解和消除水位雍高.压力促使C1、C2的填埋气由往上迁移转变为往下迁移,C1经历了10 d的填埋气向下迁移准备期,而C2在回灌后填埋气直接往下迁移,回灌会促进孔隙通道打开,有利于气液向下排出.     

综放俯采支架选型及坚硬顶板垮落规律研究

坚硬顶板垮落对采场液压支架具有一定的冲击作用。为了研究河北冀中能源股份有限公司葛泉矿东井1197工作面综放俯采大青灰岩顶板垮落规律和控制,对综放俯采四柱支架进行了力学分析,结果表明：四柱支架后柱容易处于受拉状态,不利于综放俯采的顶板控制,两柱支架更为合适。利用YTJ20型岩层探测记录仪对大青灰岩顶板的节理裂隙情况进行了观测,观测结果显示：顶板裂隙比较发育。现场实测的采场液压支架工作阻力表明,选用的ZF3200/26/16两柱支撑掩护式支架合适。且大青灰岩比较坚硬,但能随采随冒,悬顶几乎不存在,无需进行顶板处理。