实验室分析在突发环境事件中的作用

简述了当前我国对环境突发事件的应急监测技术的现状,提出了实验室分析在应急监测中的作用,指出监测分析测试技术的基础性研究、全国环境污染事故应急监测技术中心的建立、各区域危险污染源数据库的建立、建立统一的技术规范以及应急人员的技术储备将是近期我国处理突发环境事件的关键。     

Multiple linear regression models of urban runo pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-o pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runo coe cient. In this study, runo quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.     

巢湖流域丰乐河洪水事件营养盐输出动态研究

洪水期是非点源污染输出的关键时期。通过对巢湖典型农业型流域丰乐河桃溪断面两次暴雨洪水过程（发生于2010年6月初的Event06和8月底的Event08）进行集中取样监测,结合该断面流量数据,分析了洪水过程中氮和磷营养盐不同指标（包括总氮、铵氮、硝态氮、总磷和可溶磷）浓度和瞬时负荷的动态变化规律。结果表明：Event06氮磷各指标浓度最小值、最大值及平均值均比Event08大,这与6月初农作物大量施肥,氮磷来源丰富有很大关系。丰乐河洪水事件氮输出的形式以可溶性无机氮（铵氮和硝态氮）为主,而磷则以颗粒态为主,但在涨水段的初、中期颗粒态氮和颗粒态磷所占比例比其它时段高。洪水过程中主要氮、磷指标浓度和瞬时负荷随流量增大而总体呈上升趋势(除了硝态氮),在流量峰值前达到最大值,然后呈总体下降趋势。总磷、总氮浓度与流量呈比较典型的顺时针圈形结构,表明暴雨洪水较强烈的冲刷输送作用。虽然进一步的负荷累积分析并没有显示显著的初期冲刷效应,但洪水期,特别是涨水段营养盐输出的重要性已较明显。丰乐河流域面积较大、地势较平坦,以农业活动为主,水体污染的非点源来源与农业活动有关,具体的洪水过程对营养盐的输出动态也有一定影响     

Using an expanded Safety Failure Event Network to analyze railway dangerous goods transportation system risk-accident

In order to improve the reliability and safety of railway dangerous goods transportation system (RDGTS), and prevent the similar accidents happened again, an easier operated, dynamic, systemic and quantitative approach called expanded Safety Failure Event Network (SFEN) is proposed to analyze the past typical RDGTS accidents. The expanded SFEN focuses on transfer the traditional safety occurrence process into a visible Accident Analysis Network (AAN) platform. To improve the previous SFEN approach, the risk factors categories are expanded including Human actions, Technical failure, Nature of transported goods, Environment factors, Management failure and External factors of the system. An AAN is established by using the risk factors as the nodes and using the interactions among these risk factors as the edges, the RDGTS risk analysis problem is transferred into a quantitative network structure analysis problem from a network perspective. After that, based on the AAN, TouchGraph and NetMiner are applied to calculate and rank the centrality degree of each sub-risk factor (or sub-heading) in a network. A RDGTS accident happened in 2001 is analyzed, the results show that TouchGraph and NetMiner can present the same interactions and importance of sub-risk factors (or sub-headings) through visible circle images in the platform, NetMiner is more digital because the results can be presented as the centrality degree values. The greatest contributed sub-risk factors are Equipment maintenance failure and Railway inspection agency failure, followed by cargo packaging problems, illegal entrainment problem. Misbehaves of the freight inspector with centrality degree 0.523810 shows that this sub-heading has the greatest contribution to the accident.     

重大事件对入境游客旅游动机的影响——北京奥运会的案例研究

以2008年北京奥运会为例,通过入境游客行为调查分析奥运会举办对入境游客旅游动机的影响。结果表明,影响入境游客旅游动机的因素主要有限制性因子、社会心理因子和文化教育因子,其中社会心理因子和文化教育因子与北京奥运会显著相关;入境游客的年龄、学历和家庭结构与奥运会举办呈现负相关;游客的年龄、学历、年收入和家庭结构等变量受奥运会影响显著,提出了相应的营销策略。     

堆码试验标准差异的探讨与应用

本文介绍GJB 2711-1996中方法 13、方法 14两种堆码试验方法的异同点,以及它们与现行国家标准GB/T 4857.3-2008及GB/T 4857.4-2008中两种堆码试验方法的比较,说明堆码试验方法在国军标与国标中的共同点和差异,以及堆码试验中需要关注的问题。     

Examining the CDCynergy Event Assessment Tool: an investigation of the anthrax crisis in Boca Raton, Florida

This paper examines the dependability of the Event Assessment Tool over time. The latter is part of a CD-ROM--Emergency Risk Communication CDCynergy--distributed primarily to public information officers in the United States by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Event Assessment Tool is designed to aid emergency professionals in identifying the magnitude of a crisis event and to suggest appropriate actions to confront such a situation. Applied twice during the 2001 anthrax bioterrorism crisis in Boca Raton, Florida, the tool functioned in a binary manner by first indicating a moderate crisis level (on 4 October) and then four days later (on 8 October) a highly intense crisis, suggesting that it is time sensitive. This anthrax event provides an opportunity for crisis and disaster managers to understand the dynamic nature of crises. Rapid changes during these types of events suggest that any metric used to predict intensity must account for this variability. Additional limitations and implications of the tool are discussed.     

浅谈软土地基设计的一般方法

由于软土地基的低承载力、压缩性高、透水性差、结构触变性等特殊的工程特性,因此软土地基设计的好坏成为工程安全的关键。本文在传统土地设计的基础上,强调了上部结构、基础、地基共同作用的重要性,把软土地基设计概括为“一个中心、一个目的、两个基本点、六个步骤”,同时就设计参数取值和计算理论进行了讨论,供今后软基设计参考。     

江苏南通表土、地面灰重金属污染及潜在生态风险评价

选取南通市不同功能区表土、地面灰为对象,测试重金属元素Pb、Zn、Cu、Ni、Cr含量,并评价重金属污染水平和潜在生态风险程度.结果表明,表土、地面灰中Pb、Zn、Cu含量较高,污染较为严重,Ni、Cr含量较低,污染较轻.重金属污染顺序为工业区〉商业区〉交通区〉文教区〉住宅区.表土与地面灰重金属物质来源相似,一部分主要来自地壳物质,一部分受人为污染干扰.地面灰的重金属污染水平及潜在风险程度均高于表土,且崇川区工业区、商业区潜在生态风险程度较高,其余地区潜在生态风险程度较低.该项研究可为重金属污染防治提供科学参考.