Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard: Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin

Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results ...     

基于动态信任网络的突发事件模型库系统的研究

根据突发事件应急决策的需求,本文结合模型网络法和基于信任筛选器的模型组合方法,提出了动态信任网络的模型组合方法,实现了根据不同的突发事件和不同环境选择适合的模型进行模型组合。在运用动态信任网络模型组合方法的基础上,本文应用Agent技术提出了一种智能化较高的突发事件模型库,不仅增强了模型库的适应性和模型库的自学习功能,而且还可以对耦合灾害和复杂事件链的应急处置提供良好的模型决策支持功能。     

Circulation and Stream Plume Modeling in Conesus Lake

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that includes the effect of drag from macrophytes was applied to Conesus Lake to study the seasonal circulation and thermal structure during spring and early summer. Local weather conditions and stream flow data were used to drive the model. The drag coefficient for macrophytes was calculated as a function of leaf density. In general, the model results show good agreements with the observations, including vertical temperature profiles measured at two locations and average surface temperature derived from calibrated thermal imagery for large-scale simulations of the entire lake. Additional high-resolution simulations were carried out to understand water circulation and transport of sediment and model-generated tracer during hydrometeorological events at stream mouths for two experimental sites. The model results show that the plume development at stream mouths during storm events in Conesus Lake are site-dependent and may either be current- or wind-driven. The results also show a significant effect from the presence of macrophytes on sediment deposition near stream mouths.     

长江中下游夏季极端降水事件频次的统计降尺度模拟与预估

利用CMIP5三个耦合模式的历史模拟及不同情景预测结果、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和长江中下游观测降水资料,采用统计降尺度方法对长江中下游夏季极端降水频次进行模拟和预估。首先,通过计算相关的方法,获取建立统计降尺度预测模型所需的预测因子。提取的预测因子同时满足既是观测环流要素场影响极端降水的关键区域,又是模式要素场预报的高技巧区域两个条件;然后,结合挑选出的预测因子,利用多元线性回归方法建立长江中下游极端降水的统计降尺度预测模型,并对模型性能进行检验。交叉检验结果表明,此种统计降尺度方法能对过去长江中下游极端降水变化有较好的再现能力,且多个降尺度模型结果的集合能进一步提高降尺度方法的模拟技巧;最后,将建立的统计降尺度模型应用于CMIP5未来3种不同的排放情景来对极端降水进行未来预估,并对多模式结果进行集合。结果显示,统计降尺度模型预估未来几个年代际长江中下游夏季极端降水频次相对于1986~2005年呈增加趋势,21世纪中、后期高排放情景下极端降水频次增加幅度高于低排放情景。     

沛沿河流域土壤肥料释放的降雨模拟研究

为有效控制农业面源污染,改善沛沿河流域水质状况,通过对水稻田、杨树林和果园的土壤分别施用不同类型化肥后,模拟研究了土壤在受雨水短期浸泡及连续降雨情况下氮、磷的释放特征。研究结果表明,稻田土壤对氮磷的保肥能力最佳,施肥时应以基肥为主;果园土壤及林地土壤的保肥能力均劣于稻田土壤,应采用少量多次追肥的方法。尿素与碳铵宜做基肥使用,而氯化铵与硫酸铵宜做追肥使用。     

轻型顶吸旋臂捕尘罩在高炉出铁口的应用

根据首钢3#高炉出铁场的特点,通过几种方案的比较,提出了轻型顶吸旋转悬臂罩捕集方案,论述了该罩的特点及参数.实践证明,该方案完全可行,可为同类高炉出铁场除尘推广使用.     

Impact of an Extreme Flood Event on Streambank Retreat: Cedar River,Nebraska, USA

The 2010 dam breach and consequent anomalous flood event on the Cedar River in Nebraska, USA provided an opportunity to study the following objectives: (1) evaluate the impact of an extreme flood event on streambank retreat along a 45 km stretch relative to the average annual retreat; (2) quantify the changes in streambank retreat for each km segment downstream of the breach; and (3) examine the influence of riparian vegetation and radius of curvature on meander bank erosion rate. During the hydrologic event, discharge peaked at nearly three times greater than the next highest recorded rate and equated to a return period of 2,000 years. Aerial images and ArcGIS were utilized to calculate the average annual streambank retreat for each year during the preflood (2006–2010), flood (2010), and postflood (2010–2016) periods. The 2010 flood period had a significantly higher average annual streambank retreat of 2,820 m²/km/yr than the preflood and postflood periods, which, respectively, measured 576 and 384 m²/km/yr. From 2006 to 2016, 29% of all streambank erosion was from this one extreme flood event, thus demonstrating the impact that one extreme flood event can have on streambank retreat and the geomorphology of a stream system.     

机场原因航空器受损事件防控风险评价*

为有效提高机场风险管控能力并保障航空器安全运行,建立科学的机场原因航空器受损事件防控风险评价方法。通过分析航空器过站机场保障作业识别风险因素,采用事故树分析法构建出共包括107个中间事件和207个基本事件的9个机场原因航空器受损事故树;根据机场原因航空器受损事件的千架次风险值确定出整体防控风险等级;应用事故树分析法（FTA）-优劣解距离法（TOPSIS）构建防控风险贴近度指标,对机场各业务风险防控现状进行评价。结果表明:机坪引导工作的防控风险最大,机场原因航空器受损整体防控风险等级评价结果符合机场的整体防控风险状况,与FTA法相比,FTA-TOPSIS法能够更准确地对机场各业务的防控风险进行区分及排序。     

多米诺效应定量风险分析

根据多米诺效应的特点,提出了针对多米诺场景和效应后果的定量风险分析方法.首先辨识多米诺效应的事故场景,针对场景的复杂性和事故后果的严重性,运用数学模型和概率分析手段对主要事故场景进行分析; 其次根据初始事故的影响,运用设备损坏概率模型计算二次目标设备的损坏概率和场景的后果; 最后,运用人体脆弱性模型对效应后果进行分析,量化多米诺效应的风险,结合风险分析方法和理论得到直观的个人风险和F-N社会风险曲线.多米诺分析流程及计算的结果表明,多米诺效应对个人风险和社会风险都造成了显著的变化,加强多米诺效应分析有利于工厂规划布局和安全管理.     

国外应急管理体系的发展现状及经验启示

叙述了应急管理的基本概念,分析了国外应急管理体系的发展现状。从19个方面完整描述了值得我国借鉴的国外应急管理体系建设经验及启示。最后得出,应从长计议,奋力开拓,全面开创我国政府应急管理体系的新局面,加快我国应急管理体系的建设。