突发性灾难重大事件后公众对心理服务的认知和需求

为分析突发性灾难重大事件发生后公众对心理服务的认知和需求现状,采用随机抽样的方法在全国范围内抽取458名群众作为被试,使用“突发性灾难重大事件后公众心理服务认知和需求”调查问卷进行调查。结果显示:①不同性别人群、不同年龄阶段人群对“突发性灾难重大事件后心理服务”的认知存在显著差异(X^2=9.82,p<0.05;X^2=33.99,p<0.05)。②不同年龄阶段的人群对民众开展心理服务的必要性态度存在显著差异(X^2=15.84,p<0.05)。不同文化程度人群、不同性别人群对突发性灾难重大事件后心理服务活动的参与意愿存在显著差异(X^2=7.20,p<0.05;X^2=6.78,p<0.05)。③不同文化程度人群对心理服务知识和技能需求存在显著差异(X^2=28.65,p<0.05),在接受心理服务场所的选择上也存在显著差异(X^2=16.44,p<0.05)。不同年龄阶段人群对接受心理服务场所的选择上存在显著差异(X^2=21.52,p<0.05)。分析结果显示:在遭受突发性灾难重大事件时,公众对心理服务的了解程度一般,但参与意愿和需求强烈,因此,国家和社会应加快社会心理服务体系的建设,促进公众的心理健康。     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

大型盛事空气质量保障工作初探研究

随着经济社会的迅速发展,中国举办的大型盛事越来越多,但同时由于近年来环境空气质量问题日渐突出,大型盛事的空气质量保障工作越来越重要。近些年来,全国各地在大型盛事空气质量保障工作上积累了许多宝贵经验,尤其是大连市在十二运期间环境空气质量保障工作上开创许多先进做法,为大型盛事空气质量保障工作做出了突出贡献。以大连市十二运空气质量保障工作为例,介绍了大连市的典型做法及空气质量保障工作成效,初步探索了中国大型盛事空气质量保障工作机制。     

O3浓度升高对南方城市绿化树种氮素的影响

近地层臭氧(O3)浓度升高会降低树木的光合速率,抑制Rubisco酶的活性,势必会间接影响树木N素的吸收与分配.本研究利用开顶式气室研究过滤大气(CF,<20 nL·L-1)与O3浓度升高(E-O3,约150 nL·L-1)对10种南方城市常用绿化树种幼苗N素吸收和分配的影响.结果表明,与CF相比,E-O3使枫香叶生物量和马褂木茎生物量分别显著降低了20.9%和21.4%,使枫香和马褂木的根生物量显著降低了24.2%和32.5%.O3对被测树种茎中N素含量影响显著,而对叶和根中N素含量无显著影响.O3对被测树种整株树N素吸收总量(Ntu)、叶片N素吸收量及根的N素吸收量存在显著影响,而对茎N素吸收量无显著影响.与CF相比,E-O3使马褂木与木荷的Ntu分别显著降低了28.4%与22.7%,而使舟山新木姜子Ntu显著增加了15.5%.O3浓度升高对各树种N素吸收量在各器官中的分配无显著影响.     

Characterization and prediction of highway runoff constituent event mean concentration

Highway stormwater runoff quality data were collected from throughout California during 2000-2003. Samples were analyzed for conventional pollutants (pH, conductivity, hardness, and temperature); aggregates (TSS, TDS, TOC, DOC); total and dissolved metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn); and nutrients (NO(3)-N, TKN, total P, and ortho-P). Storm event and site characteristics for each sampling site were recorded. A statistical summary for chemical characteristics of highway runoff is provided based on statewide urban and non-urban highways. Constituent event mean concentrations (EMCs) were generally higher in urban highways than in non-urban highways. The chemical characteristics of highway runoff in California were compared with national highway runoff chemical characterization data. The results obtained in California were generally similar to those found in other states. The median EMC for Pb measured in studies conducted in previous decades was much higher than the current median Pb EMC in California. The lower Pb EMC in California compared to previous highway runoff monitoring is believed to be due to the elimination of leaded gasoline. An attempt was also made to identify surrogate constituents within a general family of water quality categories using Spearman correlations and selected pairs with Spearman coefficients greater than 0.8. The strongest correlations were observed among parameters associated with dissolved minerals (EC, TDS, and chloride); organic carbon (TOC and DOC); petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH and O & G); and particulate matter (TSS and turbidity). Within the metals category, total iron concentration was highly correlated with most total metal concentrations. The correlations between total and dissolved concentrations were all less than 0.8, even between total and dissolved concentrations of the same metals. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of various site and storm event variables on highway runoff constituent EMCs. Parameters found to have significant impacts on highway runoff constituent EMCs include: total event rainfall (TER); cumulative seasonal rainfall (CSR); antecedent dry period (ADP); contributing drainage area (DA); and annual average daily traffic (AADT). Surrounding land use and geographic regions were also determined to have a significant impact on runoff quality. The MLR model was also used to predict constituent EMCs. Model performance determined by comparing predicted and measured values showed good agreement for most constituents.     

Copula-Based Bivariate Return Period Analysis and Its Implication to Hydrological Design Event

In univariate frequency analysis, the return period of an event has a one-to-one correspondence with its characteristic value, and the response of the hydraulic structure to hydrological load expressed by the hydrological event is monotonic. Thus, the design criteria of the hydraulic structure can be equivalently represented by the return period of the hydrological event, and consequently, design event-based design parameters evaluated have been widely used in practical engineering. However, the monotonic correspondence between the return period of the hydrological event and the response of the hydraulic structure does not exist in the multivariate context, and hydrological load with a larger joint return period does not always produce a more unsafe response. Misunderstandings of concepts of return periods of hydrological event, and estimation of hydrological design events usually take place in multivariate frequency analysis. This study theoretically derives the relations between different types of joint return periods, joint return period and its marginal return periods, the occurrence of bivariate extreme events and their return periods, and then the theoretical framework is tested. Results from the case contribute to the understanding of bivariate return periods of hydrological event, and the results demonstrate that design criteria cannot be equivalently represented by joint return periods of hydrological load, and design parameters of the hydraulic structure should not be determined by multivariate hydrological design events.     

最小割集在系统安全分析方法中的应用

利用事故树分析法对矿井火灾进行分析 ,结合平煤六矿建立了矿井火灾事故树。阐述了最小割集理论及其在事故分析中的作用 ,着重提出了对事故树底部事件进行排序分级的加权结构重要度分析法。该方法新颖、简洁而实用 ,为系统安全分析提供了新的方法和途径。     

地震火灾事例调查

本文介绍了世界上典型的几个地震火灾的例子,汇总了中外地震史上曾发生过的地震火灾,并且较详细地介绍了产生地震火灾的原因。     

ASSESSMENT OF REMOTE SENSING INPUT TO HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

Remotely sensed variables such as land cover type and snow-cover extent can currently be used directly and effectively in a few specific hydrologic models. Regression models can also be developed using physiographic and snow-cover data to permit estimation of discharge characteristics over extended periods such as a season or year. Most models, however, are not of an appropriate design to readily accept as input the various types of remote sensing parameters that can be obtained now or in the future. Because this new technology has the potential for producing hydrologic data that has significant information content on an areal basis, both inexpensively and repetitively, effort should be devoted now to either modifying existing models or developing new models that can use these data. Minor modifications would at least allow the remote sensing data to be used in an ancillary way to update the model state variables, whereas major structural modifications or new models would permit direct input of the data through remote sensing compatible algorithms. Although current remote sensing inputs to hydrologic models employ only visible and near infrared data, model modification or development should accommodate microwave and thermal infrared data that will be more widely available in the future.