陕西关中地区城市灾害评价

本文在详细分析关中地区六个大中城市的主要自然灾害和城市地质灾害的基础上，分别评价了各种灾害造成的经济损失，各个城市的灾害危险性、易损性和抗灾能力，并结合防灾对策对城市进行了综合分类。     

西南地区1959—1961年三年自然灾害分析

该文以丰富而翔实的资料就西南地区１９５９～１９６１年三年自然灾害，特别是旱灾的灾情、灾情特点、灾害损失、灾害原因及其经验教训进行了论述．     

中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析

中国东南沿海地区是中国经济最发达，人口最稠密的地区，同时也是世界上受台风影响最严重的地区之一。本文以上海经9个沿海重点为例，通过对《台风年鉴》数据的分析处理，提取了台风关键参数并进行了统计分析与建模；利用Monte Carlo抽样和成熟台风风场模型模拟，得到了极值风速序列，对年极值风速序列进行极值风速统计分析，得到了不同重现期和地貌的极值风速，结果与实测风速比较吻合。     

Environmental and Economic Factors Can Increase the Risk of Exotic Species Introductions to the Arctic Region Through Increased Ballast Water Discharge

The effects of global warming can increase the risk of exotic species introductions in eastern Canadian Arctic waters by reducing surface ice cover and allow increased access to commercial vessels. Ballast water discharged by incoming overseas vessels is an important means for introducing species on a global scale. Analyses of air temperatures at Churchill, Manitoba between 1943 and 2002 indicated an increase in mean temperature within the past decade. Churchill is the only major northern port in this region where grain has been exported on a limited basis due to the short navigation season. Economic analyses of grain exported from Canadian and U.S. ports indicated some cost advantages for using northern ports. The Hudson Bay region is vulnerable to increased exotic species introductions because of its southerly location. Current ballast water exchange measures to reduce the risk of introductions may not be effective because most vessels enter the region with ballast, and the ballast exchange zone is located relatively close to coastal areas where the habitat could be favorable for an introduced species to become established. The probability of a large crab species introduced to this region from northern European waters is discussed. The risk of ballast water–related exotic species introduction to this region may be reduced by expanding the types of cargo handled and developing a strong import market. This approach would accommodate an increase in the number of vessels with cargo, and substantially reduce the volume of ballast carried to this region.     

GEOMORPHIC PARAMETERS PREDICT HYDROGRAPH CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SOUTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Critical design characteristics of ephermal runoff such as hydrograph rise time, duration, mean peak discharge, volume, peak-volume ratio, and maximum flood were related to physical basin parameters such as area, shape, slope, drainage density, basin relief, stream length, and combinations of these in intermontane watersheds representative of the Mexican Highland section of the Basin and Range Province. Parameters used were restricted to those easily obtainable from maps or aerial photographs. A parameter expressing basin shape and size was developed which proved to be as accurate a predictor as others used in existing prediction equations tested and was simpler and faster to derive. Simple prediction equations derived for hydrograph characteristics were all significant except for volume at the 5% level; three were significant at the 1% level. Relationships determined are applicable in semi-arid basins of the Southwest up to 60 square miles (155 km²) in area.     

防灾减灾：西海固地区可持续发展的基础

根据调查和有关资料,本文研究了西海固地区自然灾害的基本特征,分析了自然灾害对可持续发展的影响和制约作用,探讨了防治自然灾害,实现可持续发展的基本对策。     

2000年1月15日姚安6.5级地震余震序列震源机制解与震源区应力场分析

本文利用垂直向的Pg和Sg波的最大振幅比方法,计算2000年1月15日云南姚安6.5级地震后余震序列震源机制解,通过统计和系统聚类分析,再结合震中分布图,综合分析了云南姚安6.5级地震的震源机制解和震源区应力场破裂特征,研究结果表明震源断层的走向为SEE-NWW占主导,其平均解为120°,震区主压应力轴平均解为145°,即SSE向,与震源区现今构造应力场主压应力方向一致,表明余震的应力场主要受区域应力场的控制.     

W_q方法及σ_H方法在华东地区中强震预报中的应用

应用两种描述地震活动平静的特征参数Wq 和σH 对华东地区 1972年以来ML≥ 2 .3地震进行时空扫描。结果表明 :Wq 在华东地区大多数M >5地震之前均出现 1年左右或稍长时间的平静异常 ,震中一般在平静异常区的边缘或内部。对Wq 空间异常区σH 的时间扫描在某些地区也能够较好地显示1年左右的平静异常。这可能说明了地震活动平静也是中强地震的一种中短期预报指标     

Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Runoff and Soil Erosion Using Mathematical Modeling: Applications in the Mediterranean Region

Three mathematical models, the runoff curve number equation, the universal soil loss equation, and the mass response functions, were evaluated for predicting nonpoint source nutrient loading from agricultural watersheds of the Mediterranean region. These methodologies were applied to a catchment, the gulf of Gera Basin, that is a typical terrestrial ecosystem of the islands of the Aegean archipelago. The calibration of the model parameters was based on data from experimental plots from which edge-of-field losses of sediment, water runoff, and nutrients were measured. Special emphasis was given to the transport of dissolved and solid-phase nutrients from their sources in the farmers' fields to the outlet of the watershed in order to estimate respective attenuation rates. It was found that nonpoint nutrient loading due to surface losses was high during winter, the contribution being between 50% and 80% of the total annual nutrient losses from the terrestrial ecosystem. The good fit between simulated and experimental data supports the view that these modeling procedures should be considered as reliable and effective methodological tools in Mediterranean areas for evaluating potential control measures, such as management practices for soil and water conservation and changes in land uses, aimed at diminishing soil loss and nutrient delivery to surface waters. Furthermore, the modifications of the general mathematical formulations and the experimental values of the model parameters provided by the study can be used in further application of these methodologies in watersheds with similar characteristics.     

长江近口段沿岸刀鲚生物量的时间格局

为了解长江刀鲚Coilia nasus资源的变动状况,探讨沿岸水域对刀鲚资源的保育作用,于2002~2013年间用定制张网对长江靖江段沿岸鱼类作了每月2~3个样本的采集。分析结果显示,12a采集的369份样品中,刀鲚的出现频率达94.6%,分别占总渔获数量和重量的5.18%和5.46%。刀鲚平均CPUEN和CPUEW有16.7±19.9尾和106.6±109.5g,是沿岸鱼类群聚的优势种或次优势种。但其年资源量并不稳定,最高的2010年是最低2002年的5.4陪。平均体长123.6±37.0mm,平均体重仅7.5±8.2g。0+龄组占78.9%,1+龄组占20.7%,2+龄仅出现在4、5月份,且仅占当月个体数的3.0%,幼体是沿岸刀鲚群体的主要组成成分。从0+龄个体的月度体长分布看,当年孵化的幼鱼大多栖息在河岸水域,沿岸生境在维持刀鲚幼鱼资源上具有重要作用。分析显示,4月1日至6月30日的长江禁渔期虽可保护约42.6%的幼鱼个体,但从保护效果看,还因适当延长沿岸水域的禁渔时间。维护沿岸水域的生境完整性,也是保护长江刀鲚幼鱼资源的重要措施。