Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.     

生态文明与农业发展

农业作为国民经济的基础,是生态文明的重要内容,其文明程度直接体现生态文明程度.生态文明建设给农业经营提出了更高的要求,也为农业生产的发展指明了方向.充分认识生态文明建设与农业生产的关系,加强农业相关人员的生态文明教育和农业环保法制建设,实施更加科学、文明的农业经营方式将对促进农业的可持续发展和生态文明建设发挥积极的作用.     

Responses of Physical, Chemical, and Biological Indicators of Water Quality to a Gradient of Agricultural Land Use in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The condition of 25 stream sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, were assessed by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Multimetric condition indices were developed and used to rank sites on the basis of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics. These indices showed that sites in the Cascades and Eastern Cascades ecoregions were largely unimpaired. In contrast, all but two sites in the Columbia Basin ecoregion were impaired, some severely. Agriculture (nutrients and pesticides) was the primary factor associated with impairment and all impaired sites were characterized by multiple indicators of impairment. All indices of biological condition (fish, invertebrates, and algae) declined as agricultural intensity increased. The response exhibited by invertebrates and algae suggested a threshold response with conditions declining precipitously at relatively low levels of agricultural intensity and little response at moderate to high levels of agricultural intensity. This pattern of response suggests that the success of mitigation will vary depending upon where on the response curve the mitigation is undertaken. Because the form of the community condition response is critical to effective water-quality management, the National Water-Quality Assessment Program is conducting studies to examine the response of biota to gradients of land-use intensity and the relevance of these responses to water-quality management. These land-use gradient pilot studies will be conducted in several urban areas starting in 1999.     

Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

Hydrologic–Economic Model for Managing Irrigation Intensity in Irrigation Areas under Watertable and Soil Salinity Targets

This paper gives mathematical details and sample applications of SWAGMAN Farm (SWAGMAN, Salt Water and Groundwater Management), a farm-scale hydrologic economic model that integrates agronomic, climatic, irrigation, hydrogeological and economic aspects of irrigated agriculture. The model is capable of determining optimum mix of land use to keep watertable and soil salinity within acceptable limits while maximising the economic returns. Alternatively, the model can simulate water and salt balance and economics of a given cropping preference. Web-based and Geographic Information Systems versions of the model are available for integration with the environmental reporting systems of the irrigation areas.     

Development of a real-time immuno-PCR assay for the quantification of 17β-estradiol in water

A competitive real-time (RT) immuno-polymerase chain reaction (iPCR) (RT-iPCR) assay was developed for the sensitive quantification of 17β-estradiol in water. Using a universal iPCR method and polyclonal antibodies, 17β-estradiol was accurately quantified at concentrations ranging from 1 pg mL^?1 to 10 µg mL^?1. The RT-iPCR assay's limit of detection was 0.7 pg mL^?1. The RT-iPCR assay provided an 800-fold increase in sensitivity as well as an expanded working range compared with the corresponding enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Assay cross-reactivity to estrone and estriol, two structurally related estrogens, was below 8%. Water samples spiked with 17β-estradiol were analyzed by RT-iPCR to determine the assay's potential as a rapid screen for the monitoring of manure-borne estrogens in the environment. The assay showed recoveries of 82, 102 and 103% for Milli-Q, tap, and irrigation water, respectively, without requiring sample extraction or concentration prior to analysis.     

Enhancing the productivity and multifunctionality of traditional farming in Latin America

SUMMARY

An assessment is made of various grassroots development initiatives in Latin America which show that agroecological technologies can bring significant environmental and economic benefits to small farmers and rural communities in the region. Examined initiatives offer new ways of enhancing the multifunctional attributes of traditional agriculture through greater per unit area productivity and environmental services obtained in complex, integrated agroecological systems that feature many crop varieties, together with animals and trees. If such experiences were to be scaled up, multiplied, extrapolated, and supported in alternative policy scenarios, the gains in food security and environmental conservation would be substantial. The challenge now is to mobilize science, institutions and the right policies to increase the productivity of smallholder farming systems, while preserving the resource base and at the same time empowering local communities.     

中药生产中的综合利用途径

综合利用中药资源,开展中药生产中的废料综合利用工作,是保证中药资源永续利用的重要措施和手段。本文概述了中药生产中的综合利用及研究情况,探讨了中药生产中废料资源化技术的开发。