Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

Measuring Protected‐Area Isolation and Correlations of Isolation with Land‐Use Intensity and Protection Status

Abstract: Protected areas cover over 12% of the terrestrial surface of Earth, and yet many fail to protect species and ecological processes as originally envisioned. Results of recent studies suggest that a critical reason for this failure is an increasing contrast between the protected lands and the surrounding matrix of often highly altered land cover. We measured the isolation of 114 protected areas distributed worldwide by comparing vegetation‐cover heterogeneity inside protected areas with heterogeneity outside the protected areas. We quantified heterogeneity as the contagion of greenness on the basis of NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) values, for which a higher value of contagion indicates less heterogeneous land cover. We then measured isolation as the difference between mean contagion inside the protected area and mean contagion in 3 buffer areas of increasing distance from the protected‐area border. The isolation of protected areas was significantly positive in 110 of the 114 areas, indicating that vegetation cover was consistently more heterogeneous 10–20 km outside protected areas than inside their borders. Unlike previous researchers, we found that protected areas in which low levels of human activity are allowed were more isolated than areas in which high levels are allowed. Our method is a novel way to assess the isolation of protected areas in different environmental contexts and regions.     

THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DUAL PURPOSE NUCLEAR DESALINATION OF GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: The economic feasibility of a large scale dual purpose (desalting water and power production) facility were evaluated. Although a site in the Tularosa basin of southern New Mexico was chosen as a case study for this analysis, it is believed that the approach and consequential results would be applicable to alternative sites in the Southwest. The basic project evaluated included: a) a ground water well field; b) a dual purpose, nuclear, desalination plant; c) a mineral recovery plant; and d) a reservoir for recreation and irrigation storage. Principle project outputs included electrical power, minerals, recreation, and water for either irrigated agricultural production or export to an adjoining river basin. Two alternative project designs were developed for detailed analysis. The first alternative encompassed all major project components. The results, in discounted net values used to assess the feasibility of the project, were essentially negative; that is, values were less than zero for full scale development. The net benefits ranged from $-986.57 million at a 5 percent discount rate, to $-1,137.528 million at a discount rate of 10 percent. In the second alternative, exportation of the desalted water from the Tularosa basin to two adjacent rivers was analyzed with somewhat better net benefits, ranging from $-382,527 million to $-478,612 million at the 5 and 10 percent discount rates.     

马尔柯夫法在耕地质量动态评价中的应用

根据随机过程原理,构建了新的转移矩阵,建立了一个马尔柯夫链综合耕地质量评价模型.通过实例的应用,分析证明了其模型的可靠性,从而为耕地质量动态评价的科学化提供了依据.     

An integrated environmental matrix for a social unit

An integrated network is conceived that qualitatively relates environmental actors and environmental systems within a social unit such as a town, an industrial district or the like. The resulting matrix shows the flow of decisions and information between its active vector representing the environmental objectives, and its passive vector representing the environmental achievements. By way of three additional vectors, the properties of environmental systems are determined and compared to the expectations created by provisions of the environmental actors. The result is a set of residuals that define the living comfort in the social unit. The network motivates interested parties such as administrations, schools or individuals to go through the exercise of finding the causes of the residuals. In order to eliminate them, definite responsibilities have to be assigned to community members. The study pretends to involve all citizens in the flow of information, facts and decisions, and to help them identify themselves in the matrix. It is anticipated that as a result of this educational exercise, individual and collective responsibilities become apparent and are accepted and practiced.     

Comparing theoretical and actual feasibility of transferring management of river lift irrigation systems in Sudan

This article focuses on agricultural production in lift irrigation schemes along the White Nile in the Sudan. A comparison is drawn between the theoretical forecast and actual practical experience regarding the feasibility of transferring management from government-run parastatal organizations to private farmer organizations. Although the theoretical model indicates that farmers should be able to cover the cost of managing the river lift irrigation systems, field data show, however, that farmers growing wheat are barely able to break even. Even assuming a doubling of the present wheat yields, the cash surplus earned would only suffice for fuel to operate the pumps. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that, contrary to government expectations, the private sector has been unenthusiastic about taking over management of White Nile river lift schemes. The lessons that emerge from this study indicate that unplanned and rapid withdrawal of state management can lead to negative results. The transfer of management responsibility for the river pumps does not appear to influence economic performance considerably, which depends on the wider context of the country's economic, political and institutional environment, within which the agricultural sector functions.     

异地开发是农村剩余劳动力转移的重要模式

本文阐述了异地开发在农业方面的4点作用和农村剩余劳动力转移的3种基本模式。结合我国国情，指出异地开发是当前我国农村剩余劳动力转移的重要模式，它具有投入小、见效快、收益大的特点。建议政府组织开展有关实施异地开发的政策和措施等问题的研究，把异地开发工作引向深入。