Governing Quasi-Public Network Services for adaptation to climate change

Adaptation takes place in both private and public sectors, or as an interrelation between the two, and often under the realm of public regulation. Thispaper uses the Swedish and the Norwegian electricity grid sector, as providers of a vital public good under strict public regulation, to analyse reforms' effects on adaptive capacity in this area. The paper shows that transformational changes in both sectors during the 1990s shifted both the formal organisational structure (rules and regulations), as well as the organisational culture, in the direction of economic efficiency. These two dimensions individually reduced adaptive capacity to climate change, although differently in the two countries. However, the formal structure and organisational culture also yielded substantial influence on each other. This leads to the conclusion that when designing public regulations and implementing reforms, organisational culture must be considered in the design. Also the paper contests previous findings in the literature by showing that under given conditions there exist some substitution between the two dimensions in influencing adaptive capacity, implying that both dimensions should be included when analysing adaptation since analysing them in isolation is likely to lead to wrong conclusions.     

基于前向神经网络的广义环境系统评价普适模型

为了建立由水环境、空气环境、生态环境、水资源环境、灾害环境、遥感环境、社会经济环境等不同环境系统组成的广义环境系统评价都能普适、通用的神经网络模型,针对BP神经网络因收敛速度慢、易于陷入局部极值而使实用性受限的缺陷,提出以双极性sigmoid函数作为网络隐层节点(神经元)的激活函数,而网络输出为所有隐层节点输出的线性求和的前向神经网络的广义环境系统评价模型.在设置广义环境系统指标参照值和指标值规范变换式,并对指标值进行规范变换的基础上,分别构建了适用于广义环境系统评价的任意2个指标规范值的前向神经网模型(NV-FNN(2)结构)和任意3个指标规范值的前向神经网模型(NV-FNN(3)结构).而对于指标较多的广义环境系统评价,只要将多指标分解为以上2个指标和3个指标的两种简单结构的前向神经网络的广义环境系统评价模型的组合表示即可.理论分析和实例检验结果表明:该模型对任意广义环境系统的规范指标值皆普适、通用,因而使不同环境系统的评价变得简洁、统一.规范变换和优化算法相结合的建模思想和方法对简化广义环境系统评价的多元回归、投影寻踪回归、回归支持向量机和径向基神经网络建模亦有借鉴和启迪作用.     

太湖西部河湖氮污染物来源及转化途径分析

通过2014年枯水、丰水两期监测,综合分析了太湖西部入湖河流与湖区水体及其沉积物的无机氮形态与同位素特征,并利用δ~(15)N识别了太湖西部上游区氮污染来源及转化途径的生物化学作用机制.结果表明:NO_3~--N与NH_4~+-N为研究区域入湖河流无机氮的主要形态,而NO_3~--N为西部湖区水体无机氮的主要形态;δ~(15)N-NO_3~-的数值范围揭示了西部入湖河流在枯水季NO_3~--N主要来源于农用化肥,有少量矿化土壤有机氮,而丰水季则以生活污水为主,有少量矿化土壤有机氮及农用化肥;δ~(15)N-NH_4~+的数值范围说明了生活污水是河流水体NH_4~+-N的主要来源;通过水体及沉积物样品NO_3~--N、NH_4~+-N、δ~(15)N-NO_3~-、δ~(15)N-NH_4~+的协同分析可知,湖区氮的赋存形态主要受湖区水体硝化作用及沉积物内反硝化作用的影响.     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

水环境中的碘化X-射线造影剂及其去除工艺研究进展

碘化X-射线造影剂(Iodinated X-ray contrast media,ICM)在水环境中被广泛检出,因其近期被发现是碘化消毒副产物的前体物而受到越来越多的关注.本文总结了ICM在污水、地表水和饮用水等水环境中的污染现状;分析了ICM的转化产物及转化机制;重点介绍了ICM的去除工艺,包括高级氧化技术、辐射技术以及生物降解转化技术;讨论了ICM及其降解转化产物可能对环境造成的生态风险.最后,本文对未来ICM的研究前景进行了展望.     

纳米Ag粒子在我国主要类型土壤中的迁移转化过程与环境效应

随着纳米技术的快速发展,纳米材料进入环境并不断累积,因此开展纳米材料的环境安全性研究具有重要意义.纳米银(Ag NP)是目前应用最广泛的人工纳米材料之一.本课题组拟以Ag NP为研究对象,系统研究其在我国主要类型土壤中的迁移、转化过程及其生态环境效应;基于同步辐射技术、同位素技术和量子化学计算等方法,揭示Ag NP与土壤中主要矿物或有机质之间的相互作用规律;探明Ag NP对土壤中微生物、动物和植物的致毒过程及其作用机制;发展Ag NP在土壤中迁移的数学模型,预测其在土壤中的迁移、滞留通量进而评价其淋溶风险,为Ag NP的安全利用提供重要理论基础和技术支撑.     

食物链途径人体健康风险评估的关键内容探讨

食物是人类生存的重要保障,食品安全事关人类生命健康.食品污染始于农田耕地,还包括生产制造、包装、贮存、运输、加工等环节,每个步骤处理不当都可能发生食品安全问题.农田为食物来源的基石,是空气、水体中污染物的汇,随着城市的扩张,人类经济活动导致农田污染加剧.人类从食物中摄取污染物与经口、呼吸、皮肤的途径一样,是人体健康风险评估不可缺少的考量因素之一.我国对食品安全非常重视,2010年1月原卫生部根据《食品安全法》建立《食品安全风险监测管理规定》和《食品安全风险评估管理规定》(试行),这两份文件涵盖了从土壤到餐桌一系列的风险过程.但由于每个过程产生的原因、污染物影响机制均不同,规定离具体实际应用目标还很远.2014年环保部以保护生态环境,保障人体健康为根本,为加强污染场地环境保护监督管理,规范污染场地人体健康风险评估,发布了《污染场地风险评估技术导则》,该文建立了土壤污染造成人体健康风险评价的操作方法.然而导则考虑了经口、皮肤、呼吸及饮用地下水等9种暴露途径和评估模型,唯独缺少经食物链暴露这一重要途径的相关内容.本文以英、美两国食物链途径的场地污染风险评估为依据开展了详细探讨,深入分析了评估程序中关于土地利用方式的分类、目标人群暴露特征、污染物在食物链中传输路径、模型选取及暴露参数等内容,以期为我国制定《食物链暴露途径风险评估导则》提供一定的参考依据和指导方法.     

Leaching-induced migration and compositional form change of Cu,Zn, and Cd from sludge to loess

Land utilization of sewage sludge has become one of the major issues in environmental mitigation in China. This is particularly important in the Loess Plateau of Northwest China. Sludge enriched with organic matter and nutrients might effectively help to resolve the problems of silty loess soils as evidenced by porosity defect, structural alterations and absence of fertility. After sludge flows into the loess, irrigation water contains heavy metals that leach and migrate into sludge and consequently related human health risks may occur that raise concerns; and this situation needs to be rectified. The characteristics of the vertical migration and composition form change of Cu, Zn, and Cd from composted sludge to loess, and corresponding influencing factors, were investigated by performing a soil column simulation test under the leaching treatment of a one-year irrigation water capacity. Results demonstrated that: (1) composted sludge significantly improved loess fertility, and irrigation leaching transported only a small quantity of organic matter in sludge in the plough layer; (2) although some of the Cu, Zn, and Cd in composted sludge migrated to and concentrated in the middle and upper layers of the soil column during leaching, these metals were mostly retained in the plough layer; and (3) after the leaching treatment of the one-year irrigation water capacity, the compositions of Cu, Zn, and Cd (particularly Cu and Zn) in both plough layer and loess began to stabilize with low concentrations in the exudate. These findings confirmed the applicability of composted sludge in loess regions. This study provided a new insight into the sludge reuse in alkaline soils in arid and semi-arid region.     

基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的某弹用弹簧可靠性评估

目的 解决某弹用弹簧可靠性评估中存在的不确定性问题。方法 对某弹用弹簧进行加速退化试验,试验过程中发现其具有多个性能退化参数,并且其退化过程具有非线性、随机性及样本差异性的特征。为了对其退化过程进行数学表征,提出一种基于多元随机效应Wiener过程的退化模型。采用基于时间尺度变换的非线性Wiener过程,描述弹簧退化过程中的非线性与随机性。基于随机效应模型,对样本的差异性进行表征,利用Copula函数描述多元性能参数之间的相互作用关系。最后推导弹簧失效寿命的概率密度函数、可靠度函数。结果 在贮存条件为25 ℃、可靠度为0.9时,基于构建的多元随机效应Wiener过程模型,当考虑性能间的相关性时,得到某弹用弹簧的贮存寿命为12 a;不考虑性能间的相关性时,得到其贮存寿命为11.5 a。结论 构建的多元随机退化模型为该弹药健康状态管理提供了相应的理论依据。     

海洋生物对微塑料迁移转化的调控作用

近年来,海洋微塑料污染已成为全球关注的重要环境问题。海洋中广泛存在的微塑料可被藻类吸附、微生物定植,亦可被海洋动物摄食并蓄积。生物与微塑料之间的相互作用必然会改变微塑料的物理、化学性质,及其在海洋中的迁移转化。因此,本文系统地阐述了海洋生物对微塑料的吸附、摄入、蓄积与排泄等关键过程;重点总结了微塑料在海洋生物过程(如排泄、与海洋雪团聚、形成生物膜以及生物扰动)影响下的沉降-埋藏等迁移过程;深入讨论了海洋动物对微塑料的摄食、消化过程以及微生物的分解作用导致的微塑料破碎、降解以及塑料添加剂和吸附污染物的释放过程及其机理。本文阐明了海洋生物对微塑料迁移转化的调控作用,为理解海洋微塑料的环境归趋提供理论依据。