基于系统动力学模型的影剧院人员疏散策略

随着社会的发展,人们对生命的重视程度日益增强,大型公共场所临灾情况下人员疏散问题的研究也越来越有实际意义.分析以往影剧院火灾事故可以发现,不正确的疏散逃生行为所引起的通道堵塞,是导致人员大量伤亡的一个主要原因.根据系统动力学原理,应用STELLA系统软件,建立了基于粗网络模型的人员疏散模型.以影剧院发生火灾为例,分析了采取不同疏散策略所产生的避难效果差异,找出了最佳的疏散策略.所提研究方法和建立的模型,对于合理设计疏散路线和优化建筑物的出口与通道结构具有一定的实用价值.     

The indirect involvement of buses in traffic accident processes

The involvement of buses in accidents usually is assessed implicitly on the basis of the direct involvement of the bus in the collision or in injury production. This paper deals with the scope and forms of indirect involvement of buses (as a sight obstruction, for example). Accidents were selected by identifying the presence of the term ‘bus’ or synonyms in the text parts of complete police reports (testimonies, statements by the persons involved, etc.) available in electronic form, then analysed in detail. Direct or indirect involvement of a bus is found in 3.6% of traffic injury accidents reported by the police in the community studied (direct involvement: 1.4%; indirect involvement: 2.2%). The different forms of indirect involvement are then described, and some possibilities of preventive measures are discussed.     

Information Network Topologies for Enhanced Local Adaptive Management

We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources. We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states: one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social–ecological system, the systemwide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state. An erratum to this article can be found at .     

煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程仿真研究

煤矿发生火灾后会生成大量有毒气体并产生火风压,烟气在火灾动力的影响下出现状态紊乱,研究煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程对控制火情有着重要意义。基于国内外研究现状,对燃烧及风流特点进行分析,建立了煤矿火灾烟气流动数学模型,并利用CFD软件进行仿真。研究表明:无通风工况下的烟气为对称流动;随着风速增加,出口处温度降低,烟气向风流入口处的流速减小。     

Selection and integration of environmental impacts in the Danish transport infrastructure assessment process

Transport projects have numerous consequences for the environment, society and economy, and thus an EU Directive has stated a number of impacts that need to be assessed prior to any major intervention. This paper is set in a Danish context where the EU requirements have been adopted in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) regulation along with national requirements. In recent years, however, the EIAs have been criticised for an inconsistent inclusion of impacts and unclear assessment process. A selection of EIAs is for this reason reviewed and compared to the EU Directive and corresponding works in Sweden and the UK to identify potential opportunities for improvements. From the literature study, an overview table with all potential relevant impacts for transport projects is set up to assist the EIA process. For the sake of simplicity and transparency, the impacts selected from this table should, however, be further reduced in number to ensure that only the most important impacts are included in the process. To further increase simplicity and transparency in the EIA process, a novel framework for assessing different types of impacts is proposed. In this framework, a comprehensive decision support tool involving stakeholders is in focus. The framework is supplemented with a procedure for generating objectives and presenting results in an appropriate way to the many stakeholders involved. The impacts overview table and the assessment techniques are applied to a case study to illustrate the process, and finally, conclusions and perspectives for future work within the field are set out.     

Performance evaluation of reverse logistics enterprise – an agent-based simulation approach

Reverse logistics (RL) has been applied in many industries and sectors since its conception. Unlike forward logistics, retracing consumer goods from the point of consumption to the point of inception is not a well-studied process. It involves many uncertainties such as time, quality and quantity of returns. The returned products can be remanufactured, have parts harvested, or be disposed safely. It is important to implement these activities in a cost-effective manner. The aim of this research is to measure the performance of the RL enterprise with the help of an agent-based simulation model. The major entities in the RL network are considered as Agents that can act independently. There are several different agents: collector agent, sorting-cum-reuse agent, remanufacturing agent, recycler agent, supplier agent and distributor agent. The individual performances of the agents are measured and recommendations are given to improve their performance, leading to the enhancement of the total performance of the RL enterprise. The approach is applied to a case study involving cell phone remanufacturing.     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.     

Mitigation of eutrophication caused by wastewater discharge: A simulation-based approach

Mitigation of eutrophication, intensified by excessive nutrient load discharge in wastewaters regulated by restrictive legal requirements, remains one of today’s most important global problems. Despite implementation of the Water Framework Directive, the Urban Wastewater Directive and the HELCOM recommendations, the actual condition of surface water is still not satisfactory. In response to the above, the study presents an alternative approach for surface water protection against eutrophication based on the selection of appropriate nutrient removal technologies. An activated sludge model simulation was used to enable the identification of environmentally justified nutrient removal systems with lowest eutrophication potential of treated wastewater conditioned by bioavailable nutrient forms content. Based on the outcome of the study, the 3-stage Bardenpho system was identified as the most efficient for bioavailable phosphorus removal, while the Johannesburg system proved to have the highest efficiency for bioavailable nitrogen removal. The proposed eutrophication mitigation approach underlines the need for a reconsideration of current legal regulations which ignore nutrient bioavailability and key eutrophication limiting factors.     

燃煤电厂烟塔合一排烟风洞试验与数值模拟对比分析

近年来,燃煤电厂烟塔合一烟气排烟对近距离环境影响的不确定性,使其在国内的推广过程受到一定限制。准确判断烟塔合一排烟的环境影响,对于我国现有燃煤电厂烟气污染物的排放有着巨大的工程价值和明显的现实意义。利用国家环境保护某重点实验室中风洞试验平台,对燃煤电厂烟塔合一烟气污染物在近距离的扩散和传输行为,进行物理风洞试验以及数值模拟计算,并进行对比分析。结果表明:德国Austal2000模式的浓度预测并不精确;数值风洞也有其差异性,而物理风洞的结果在很大程度上符合现有的理论及国内工程实际。     

多相流中细长颗粒数值模拟研究综述

纤维干燥尾气中的飞灰含有大量的木质纤维、砂光粉和其他粉尘。从形状来看,木质纤维属细长颗粒,和研究较为成熟的球形颗粒在许多方面存在较多差异。目前,国内外学者们已对细长颗粒在多相流中的悬浮、沉降及流化方面开展了大量数值模拟研究,取得了一定的进展;在此基础上,继续完善木质纤维的运动特征、推导出其在换热器表面的碰撞沉积模型是下一步的主要工作。