广西“十二五”主要污染物总量减排现状分析与探讨

实施污染物总量减排是中国环境管理和污染控制的重大举措,“十二五”后期仍是中国环境保护的重点内容,为此科学分析和制定有效的减排对策措施意义重大。通过总结广西“十二五”前三年总量减排工作现状及实施成效,从大气污染物减排、城镇污水处理、畜禽养殖污染防治、机动车氮氧化物控制、环境监管能力建设等方面分析存在问题,提出科学合理的减排对策建议：第一,突出污染减排倒逼作用;第二,严格环境准入;第三,狠抓大气污染物减排;第四,加强环保基层能力建设;第五,加强环境监管能力建设。     

在用轻型汽油车排放水平及趋势变化拟合研究

基于佛山市2.7万条稳态加载模拟工况法(ASM)的尾气排放检测数据,在分析了总体排放劣化特征随行驶里程呈规律性变化的基础上,通过分类统计和回归分析方法研究了在用轻型汽油车的排放劣化增长模型及不同排放标准机动车的排放特征.分析结果表明,线性增长模型能很好地表现CO,HC,NO三种污染物随行驶里程的劣化规律;不同排放标准的轻型汽油车排放特征差异很大,国零、Ⅰ、Ⅱ排放水平很高,对总体排放影响较大.研究结论对于预测机动车污染变化趋势,完善在用车检查/维护制度等方面可以提供理论支持.     

浙江省排污权有偿使用价格的实例研究

以浙江省各地市排污权有偿使用价格为基础进行研究,介绍了浙江省排污权初始价格计算方法和浙江省各试点地区相关情况,进行了影响排污权有偿使用价格的相关性分析,提出影响排污权有偿使用价格的回归分析,文中运用实证分析,就排污权有偿使用价格与影响其价格的各个因子分别进行了单因素的相关性分析和多因素的线性回归分析,得出回归模型,认为污染治理成本大小对价格有着显著的影响,污染治理法是现阶段理想的初始排污权定价方法.     

海南省废弃物处理温室气体排放估算研究

废弃物处理所释放的甲烷、二氧化碳和氧化亚氮是温室气体排放估算的组成部分之一.通过对海南省废弃物处理固体废弃物填埋、焚烧、生活污水以及工业废水过程中温室气体排放的估算,得出废弃物处理温室气体排放清单.2010年海南省城市废弃物处理温室气体排放以CO2当量计算总量为65.79万吨,同时进行了不确定性分析,不确定性约为30％,并提出拟采取的降低不确定性措施,为今后不断完善废弃物处理温室气体排放清单编制提供依据.     

Effect of working time on environmental pressures: empirical evidence from EU-15, 1970–2010

There is growing interest in the correlation between working time and environmental pressures, but prior empirical studies mostly focused on static methodologies. This article used dynamic panel regression approaches to examine and compare the relationship among western, southern, and northern European countries over the period 1970–2010, and proved the existence of strongly significant relationships in all models. Furthermore, this article detected the relationship between working hours and environmental indicators (carbon emission and energy use) at different phases. We contribute to a further understanding of the environmental effects of the working time reduction policy by comparing the differences among various periods and country groups in a system generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic framework.     

崇明岛中长期碳排放预测及其影响因素分析

为更好地推动崇明低碳生态岛的建设,在应用以自下而上的部门法为基础的区域范围温室气体排放评估核算方法,全面核算崇明岛能源消费及温室气体排放现状的基础上,应用LEAP模型,通过情景分析预测崇明岛中长期能源消费需求以及温室气体排放水平,并进一步应用对数平均指数法(LMDI)对影响崇明岛未来温室气体排放的主要因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:参考情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量从2010年的101万吨标煤增加到2050年的533万吨标煤,净碳足迹从2010年的238万吨CO2e增加到2050年的579万吨CO2e。崇明岛能源消费需求和碳排放增加的主要驱动因素是未来的经济发展、人口增长和生活水平的提高,但是通过一系列的优化,尤其是能源结构的变化和能耗强度的下降,减排情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量有可能在2039年左右达到峰值,并有望在2050年左右实现"零碳岛"的长期发展目标。结合定量分析的结论,进一步提出了实现崇明岛低碳发展中长期目标的可能性和重点发展领域。     

中国污染物总量减排数据核算体系研究

"十一五"期间,中国对COD和SO2两种污染物开展总量减排工作,预期指标超额完成。"十一五"期间构建起来的总量减排数据核算体系为中央政府提供了相对准确的减排数据,是减排取得成功的基础。本文通过研究减排数据核算体系来对总量减排的成功进行制度性解释。本文采用文本分析和实地调研的方法,描述了中国减排数据核算体系的组织机构及其基本职责,整理出了自下而上的数据生成、流动机制和自上而下的数据核查、反馈机制,归纳出总量减排数据核算体系相较于传统环境统计的基本特征:一是设立了区域督查中心和各级总量控制部门等专门的组织机构;二是数据的双向流动机制,中央拥有对减排数据的审核权和最终确定权,并且会将正式确定后的数据逐级反馈给地方政府并应用于上级政府对下级政府的行政考核当中去;三是在数据核算中采用环境监测数据,并因此进行了全国范围的环境监测能力建设;四是减排工作全过程数据核算。这些新特征使得中国减排数据核算体系得以提升减排数据质量,对地方政府可能的违规行为进行约束;将减排绩效与地方政府考核相结合,通过政治激励促进地方政府开展减排工作;加强地方政府环境监管能力,保障减排工作的开展和完成。但现有数据核算体系仍然存在监测数据利用不到位而导致行政成本较高、减排量核算细则"一刀切"导致政策公平性缺失等亟需改进完善的问题。     

Multi-objective transportation route optimization for hazardous materials based on GIS

Safety and security are of paramount importance, it is important to optimize and improve the routes of trucks that carry hazardous materials. In this study, we not only ensure the risk in the network, but also consider the transportation cost and the factors such as buildings and emergency facilities around the routes. The Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to quantify the factors on each section in the network. We present an epsilon constrained multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming optimization model to find the robust and stable transportation optimization solutions. At the end, we complete a case analysis of the proposed methodology to determine the motorway segments in Jiangsu province, China and test the above algorithm on the network, which has 144 nodes and 388 sections. The results we get show that the factors of buildings play a very important role in the model, and the multi-objective mixed-integer linear optimization model is reasonable and performs good quality.     

关于焦化行业CO2排放核算方法的探讨

本文分析了适用于焦化行业通用CO₂排放核算方法,在此基础上结合我国焦化行业工艺和原料的特征,采用排放因子法和物料衡算法等两种方法对10家典型焦化企业CO₂排放进行核算。结果表明:物料衡算法能很好地反映不同类型焦化企业的排放特征;排放因子法对我国独立焦化企业存在碳排放量系统性高估的可能。为此,建议我国焦化企业可借鉴德国焦化企业的碳核算经验,采用碳平衡法对不同类型的焦化企业(单元)的碳排放量进行核算,并完善相关的统计和监测技术。     

An Interpretive Study of Yosemite National Park Visitors’ Perspectives Toward Alternative Transportation in Yosemite Valley

The National Park Service (NPS) is increasingly focusing on alternative transportation systems in national parks to address environmental and social problems arising from a historical reliance on personal automobiles as the primary means of visitor access. Despite the potential advantages, alternative transportation may require a reorientation in the way that Americans have experienced national parks since the advent of auto-tourism in the early twentieth century. Little research exists, however, on visitor perspectives towards alternative transportation or the rationale underlying their perspectives. It remains unclear how transportation systems affect visitors’ experiences of the park landscape or the factors influencing their travel behavior in the parks. This report presents an interpretive study of visitor perspectives toward transportation management in the Yosemite Valley area of Yosemite National Park, California. Qualitative analysis of 160 semi-structured interviews identified individual psychological factors as well as situational influences that affect visitors’ behavior and perspectives. Individual psychological factors include perceived freedom, environmental values and beliefs, prior experience with Yosemite National Park and other national parks, prior experience with alternative transportation in national parks, and sensitivity to subjective perceptions of crowding. Situational factors included convenience, access, and flexibility of travel modes, as well as type of visit, type of group, and park use level. Interpretive communication designed to encourage voluntary visitor use of alternative transportation should focus on these psychological and situational factors. Although challenges remain, the results of this study suggest approaches for shaping the way Americans visit and experience their national parks to encourage environmental sustainability.