碳排放约束下的农业生产效率及其空间格局——基于河南省65个村庄的调查

基于村庄尺度探索碳排放约束下的农业生产效率,对于差别化的低碳农业生产模式的选择具有一定的理论和实践意义。基于河南省65个村庄的调查数据,对不同样点的农业碳排放进行了核算,并采用Super-SBM模型分析了碳排放约束下的农业生产效率的差异。结果表明：河南省农业碳排放强度呈现“南北高,中间低”的空间分布格局,这主要受种植结构、农业生产条件、人类各项投入等因素的影响;碳排放约束下的河南省农业生产效率具有较大的空间差异,根据农业生产效率和碳排放强度的关系,可将样点村庄分为低碳高效村、高碳低效村、高碳高效村和低碳低效村四种类型。其中高碳低效村和低碳低效村的比例较大。建议未来应加强农业规模化经营、减少能源和物资投入、完善农业基础设施、推广节水节能新技术,在提高农业生产效率的同时推动农业低碳发展。     

碳市场发电企业违约分级累进处罚机制研究

在确保减排效率的前提下,以全国碳市场中的发电企业为研究对象,以实现碳市场经济剩余最大化为目标,构建政府和双寡头企业的两阶段动态博弈模型,研究分级累进处罚机制对大型和小型企业发电量、利润的影响,以及在实行分级累进处罚机制的碳市场中经济剩余的实现.算例结果表明：随着罚款系数的增加,违约企业是大型发电企业时,总发电量、企业总利润和经济剩余大幅减少7.47%、15.34%、5.88%;违约企业是小型发电企业时,总发电量小幅减少1.43%,企业总利润小幅减少3.39%或上升0.03%,经济剩余小幅上升0.13%;大型违约企业未参与碳交易时,企业总利润大幅减少16.35%,参与碳交易时,企业总利润小幅减少15.34%;小型违约企业未参与碳交易时,企业总利润大幅减少3.39%,参与碳交易时,企业总利润小幅上升0.03%,分级累进处罚机制能够有效的遏制企业的违约行为.因此,在设计发电行业处罚机制时,应加大处罚力度;设置分级累进处罚机制,分别根据企业规模和碳市场参与度进行分级和累进,并建立有效的监管制度.     

生活垃圾焚烧厂超低排放的改造路线

通过分析国内外垃圾焚烧发电厂烟气净化系统的现状,基于燃煤电站和垃圾焚烧发电厂烟气物性之间的相似性及燃煤电站超低排放系统的先进性,提出了分别以循环流化床法脱硫和高效协同型湿法脱硫技术为核心的垃圾焚烧烟气超低排放改造可行技术路线,并分析了2种技术路线的初投资和运行成本.结果表明：2种技术路线的初投资相当,约为1.37万元/t,但以湿法脱硫为核心的技术运行费用较高,日运行成本约为16.46元/t;采用环保电价补贴政策时,2种烟气超低排放技术路线超过政策发电量部分的发电收入分别可以在3a和7a内弥补超低排放改造及运行带来的资金支出.     

合成树脂行业挥发性有机物排放成分谱及影响

使用SUMMA罐采集华东地区5类典型合成树脂企业有组织排口样品,通过气相色质联用技术（GC-MS）定量分析106种VOCs,计算了合成树脂行业排放量、排放系数和不确定性,分析了VOCs的排放特征和臭氧生成潜势,建立了5类合成树脂VOCs排放成分谱.结果表明：合成树脂企业VOCs排放量为346~3467kg/a,5类合成树脂排放系数为0.06~1.24g/kg,其中涂料树脂（CR）类企业排放量和排放系数均最大.芳香烃、含氧烃（OVOCs）和卤代烃是合成树脂行业VOCs排放基本组分,累计占比范围是73.2%~98.3%.涂料树脂、酚醛树脂（PF）、聚氨酯（PU）、共聚物树脂（ABS）和聚碳酸酯（PC）特征污染物分别为：甲基异丁基酮、苯、甲苯、苯乙烯和二氯甲烷.合成树脂企业臭氧生成潜势（OFP）为22.7~202.5mg/m³,源反应性（SR）为0.3~4.6g/g,CR类企业OFP和SR均最大.合成树脂行业SR处于各行业平均水平.芳香烃、OVOCs和烯炔烃是合成树脂行业的主要光化学活性组分,累计OFP贡献率为64.1%~100.0%,苯、甲苯、甲基异丁基酮、乙烯、苯乙烯是合成树脂行业关键活性物种.研究显示,合成树脂行业VOCs治理应管控芳香烃和OVOCs的排放,重视污染物恶臭问题和卤代烃溶剂的危害,减排VOCs排放量大、臭氧生成能力强的CR类企业.     

An integrated chemical mass balance and source emission inventory model for the source apportionment of PM2.5 in typical coastal areas

The source apportionment of PM_2.5 is essential for pollution prevention. In view of the weaknesses of individual models, we proposed an integrated chemical mass balance-source emission inventory (CMB-SEI) model to acquire more accurate results. First, the SEI of secondary component precursors (SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, and VOCs) was compiled to acquire the emission ratios of these sources for the precursors. Then, a regular CMB simulation was executed to obtain the contributions of primary particle sources and secondary components (SO₄^2?, NO₃^-, NH₄⁺, and SOC). Afterwards, the contributions of secondary components were apportioned into primary sources according to the source emission ratios. The final source apportionment results combined the contributions of primary sources by CMB and SEI. This integrated approach was carried out via a case study of three coastal cities (Zhoushan, Taizhou, and Wenzhou; abbreviated WZ, TZ, and ZS) in Zhejiang Province, China. The regular CMB simulation results showed that PM_2.5 pollution was mainly affected by secondary components and mobile sources. The SEI results indicated that electricity, industrial production and mobile sources were the largest contributors to the emission of PM_2.5 gaseous precursors. The simulation results of the CMB-SEI model showed that PM_2.5 pollution in the coastal areas of Zhejiang Province presented complex pollution characteristics dominated by mobile sources, electricity production sources and industrial production sources. Compared to the results of the CMB and SEI models alone, the CMB-SEI model completely apportioned PM_2.5 to primary sources and simultaneously made the results more accurate and reliable in accordance with local industrial characteristics.     

Carbon reduction potential and cost evaluation of different mitigation approaches in China's coal to olefin Industry

Coal-based olefin (CTO) industry as a complement of traditional petrochemical industry plays vital role in China's national economic development. However, high CO₂ emission in CTO industry is one of the fatal problems to hinder its development. In this work, the carbon emission and mitigation potentials by different reduction pathways are evaluated. The economic cost is analyzed and compared as well. According to the industry development plan, the carbon emissions from China's CTO industry will attain 189.43 million ton CO₂ (MtCO₂) and 314.11 MtCO₂ in 2020 and 2030, respectively. With the advanced technology level, the maximal carbon mitigation potential could be attained to 15.3% and 21.9% in 2020 and 2030. If the other optional mitigation ways are combined together, the carbon emission could further reduce to some extent. In general, the order of mitigation potential is followed as: feedstock alteration by natural gas > CO₂ hydrogenation with renewable electricity applied > CCS technology. The mitigation cost analysis indicates that on the basis of 2015 situation, the economic penalty for feedstock alteration is the lowest, ranged between 186 and 451 CNY/tCO₂, and the cost from CCS technology is ranged between 404 and 562 CNY/tCO₂, which is acceptable if the CO₂ enhanced oil recovery and carbon tax are considered. However, for the CO₂ hydrogenation technology, the cost is extremely high and there is almost no application possibility at present.     

基于热异常探测的北京水泥厂大气污染排放评估

为对水泥行业实现大气污染排放动态监测,反映污染排放的时空分布特征,提出基于热异常点探测数据的新型干法水泥气态污染物排放量测算方法.利用VIIRS热异常点的FRP(fire radiation power,辐射功率)参数结合水泥产业结构特点,建立FRP与污染物排放之间的定量估算关系.利用2013—2017年北京市水泥生产统计信息和热异常点探测数据进行了大气污染排放评估,结果显示:①利用热异常产品的FRP参数估算北京市水泥厂的污染排放水平,利用NO_x和SO₂排放量的统计数据对排放估算值进行相关性验证,二者统计值与估算值之间的相关性系数分别为0.65和0.63.②2013—2017年北京市所有水泥厂的热异常点数据与环境统计数据中水泥总产量、熟料总产量、煤炭总产量以及NO_x、SO₂和烟(粉)尘排放量的相关性均较好,相关性系数均在0.7左右.③自2013年以来,北京市金隅琉水环保科技有限公司和北京金隅北水环保科技有限公司的热异常点数均呈下降趋势.由于采取了减排措施,水泥总产量和污染排放量也均呈逐年减少的趋势.研究显示,基于热异常点探测数据的新型干法水泥气态污染物排放量测算方法可快速获取水泥厂的位置信息、热释放规模,结合污染排放因子可间接评估水泥厂NO_x和SO₂等主要污染物的排放情况.      

典型胶合板制造企业VOCs排放特征

通过苏玛罐采样和GC-MS/FID分析系统,测定了山东地区典型胶合板制造企业的VOCs排放特征.结果表明,烷烃（13.81%~39.16%）、含氧VOCs（5.68%~36.06%）和芳香烃（3.58%~48.12%）是热压和涂胶工艺主要排放成分,废气排口以含氧VOCs（6.49%~83.88%）排放为主,不同工艺环节的特征VOCs组分各有不同;烯炔烃（27.12%~39.38%）和芳香烃（32.47%~45.63%）是热压工艺和涂胶工艺的高OFP组分,废气排口则以含氧VOCs（52.82%）对O₃生成贡献最大;基于SOAP评估,各环节均以芳香烃类化合物（97.08%~98.03%）为主要活性组分;测得山东地区胶合板制造行业VOCs排放因子为0.89g VOCs/m³胶合板.     

基于配额指标重要性视角的中国碳排放配额再分配

提出用与碳排放“同步变化程度”来衡量配额指标重要性的思想,对中国各省份碳排放配额进行再分配.首先在公平和效率原则基础上选取碳排放的影响因素作为分配指标,其次采用灰色关联分析法分别测算出各地区各指标与碳排放量的同步变动程度,以得到各地区各指标在配额分配中的比重.最后测算出我国29个省区2020~2030年的碳排放配额与排放空间.结果表明,人口基数及经济发展指标对各地碳排放有较强的同步变动关联性,因此应该被赋予更高的权重;配额最多的地区包括广东、北京、江苏、山东、上海,最少的地区则包括宁夏、贵州、青海、吉林、新疆.盈余分析发现,北京地区的碳排放空间有较多盈余;浙江等5个省区已达较饱和状态;山东等4个省区则处于较严重的溢出状态,在未来10年内需承担较重的减排压力.     

中国旅游业碳排放的影响因素分解及脱钩效应

采用广义迪氏指数分解法（GDIM）分解2000~2017年中国旅游业碳排放的影响因素,并在此基础上采用Tapio脱钩因果链模型分析旅游业碳排放的脱钩效应.结果表明：旅游业增加值、旅游业能源消耗量和旅客人次数是旅游业碳排放的促增因素,增加值能源强度和人均旅游业增加值是旅游业碳排放的促降因素,增加值碳强度、能源消耗碳强度和人均旅游业碳排放对旅游业碳排放的促增和促降作用在研究期间均有出现;旅游业能源消耗量的累积促增效应最大,为2030.13万t,增加值能源强度的累积促降效应最大,为103.29万t;旅游业碳排放的脱钩状态不佳,但近年来有所改善;人均脱钩弹性波动剧烈,节能弹性的变化是其波动的主要原因.