近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料,采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势,并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验,用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标,对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验,采用了Mann Kendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致,年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关;饶河流域强降水事件较多,降水强度大,赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀,强降水事件较少;（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大;（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界,之前呈波动上升趋势,之后呈波动下降趋势,2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少;（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变;（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧,旱涝灾害风险增加。     

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

Indoor and outdoor PM mass and number concentrations at schools in the Athens area

Simultaneous indoor and outdoor PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentration measurements were conducted in seven primary schools in the Athens area. Both gravimetric samplers and continuous monitors were used. Filters were subsequently analyzed for anion species. Moreover ultrafine particles number concentration was monitored continuously indoors and outdoors. Mean 8-hr PM₁₀ concentration was measured equal to 229 ± 182 μg/m³ indoors and 166 ± 133 μg/m³ outdoors. The respective PM_2.5 concentrations were 82 ± 56 μg/m³ indoors and 56 ± 26 μg/m³ outdoors. Ultrafine particles 8-h mean number concentration was measured equal to 24,000 ± 17,900 particles/cm³ indoors and 32,000 ± 14,200 particles/cm³ outdoors. PM₁₀ outdoor concentrations exhibited a greater spatial variability than the corresponding PM_2.5 ones. I/O ratios were close or above 1.00 for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 and smaller than 1.00 for ultrafine particles. Very high I/O ratios were observed when intense activities took place. The initial results of the chemical analysis showed that accounts for the 6.6 ± 3.5% of the PM₁₀ and for the 3.1 ± 1.4%.The corresponding results for PM_2.5 are 12.0 ± 7.7% for and 3.1 ± 1.9% for . PM_2.5 indoor concentrations were highly correlated with outdoor ones and the regression line had the largest slope and a very low intercept, indicative of no indoor sources of fine particulate . The results of the statistical analysis of indoor and outdoor concentration data support the use of as a proper surrogate for indoor PM of outdoor origin.     

基于三角模糊数的民航企业“管理”安全综合评价模型研究

在对我国民航企业安全管理的现状和常用的安全评价方法进行分析的基础上,提出并建立了民航企业"管理"安全模糊综合评价模型。首先,从组织管理、风险管理、安全保证、安全促进4个方面对民航企业安全管理的内容和特点进行分析,在此基础上建立民航企业"管理"安全评价指标体系;然后,根据三角模糊数理论和模糊综合评价理论建立民航企业"管理"安全模糊综合评价模型;通过上述指标体系和评价模型从而达到对民航企业"管理"安全进行评价的目的。最后,给出了一个应用实例,其评价结果表明:该模型具有很强的实用性和借鉴价值。     

Particle fluxes above forests: observations, methodological considerations and method comparisons

This paper reports a study designed to test, evaluate and compare micro-meteorological methods for determining the particle number flux above forest canopies. Half-hour average particle number fluxes above a representative broad-leaved forest in Denmark derived using eddy covariance range from -7x10(7) m(-2) s(-1) (1st percentile) to 5x10(7) m(-2) s(-1) (99th percentile), and have a median value of -1.6x10(6) m(-2) s(-1). The statistical uncertainties associated with the particle number flux estimates are larger than those for momentum fluxes and imply that in this data set approximately half of the particle number fluxes are not statistically different to zero. Particle number fluxes from relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) and eddy covariance are highly correlated and of almost identical magnitude. Flux estimates from the co-spectral and dissipation methods are also correlated with those from eddy covariance but exhibit higher absolute magnitude of fluxes.     

Experimental Study of the Criteria of Flow Laminarization in Two-Dimensional Dense Gas Plumes

Laminarization of flow in a two-dimensional dense gas plume was experimentally investigated in this study. The plume was created by releasing CO₂ through a ground-level line source into a simulated turbulent boundary layer over an aerodynamically rough surface in a meteorological wind tunnel. The bulk Richardson number (Ri_*), based on negative plume buoyancy, plume thickness, and friction velocity, was varied over a wide range so that the effects of stable stratification on plume laminarization could be observed. A variety of ambient wind speeds as well as three different sizes of roughness arrays were used so that possible effects of roughness Reynolds number (Re_*) on plume laminarization could also be identified. Both flow visualization methods and quantitative measurements of velocity and intermittency of turbulence were used to provide quantitative assessments of plume laminarization.Flow visualization provided an overall picture of how the plume was affected by the negative buoyancy. With increasing Ri_*, both the plume depth and the vertical mixing were significantly suppressed, while upstream propagation of the plume from the source was enhanced. The most important feature of the flow revealed by visualization was the laminarization of flow in the lower part of the plume, which appeared to be closely related to both Ri_* and Re_*.Measurements within the simulated dense gas plumes revealed the influence of the stable stratification on mean velocity and turbulence intensity profiles. Both the mean velocity and turbulence intensity were significantly reduced near the surface; and these reductions systematically depended on Ri_*. The roughness Reynolds number also had considerable influence on the mean flow and turbulence structure of the dense gas plumes.An intermittency analysis technique was developed and applied to the digitized instantaneous velocity signals. It not only confirmed the general flow picture within the dense plume indicated by the flow visualization, but also clearly demonstrated the changes of flow regime with variations in Ri_* and Re_*. Most importantly, based on this intermittency analysis, simple criteria for characterizing different flow regimes are formulated; these may be useful in predicting when plume laminarization might occur.     

Evidence of new particle formation during post monsoon season over a high-altitude site of the Western Ghats,India

The formation of ultrafine particles, their growth, and associated characteristic features has been studied during new particle formation events over a high-altitude station of the Western Ghats during the 2014 post-monsoon season. Most of the events were observed during noon time where particle bursts in the nucleation-mode size range from 5 to 25 nm followed by sustained growth in size. This phenomenon persists for ～4–8 h with a growth rate of 1–2 nm h^–1. Peak concentrations of nucleation-mode particles during the event generally vary from 2300 to 5000 cm^–3. The mean growth rate is 1.4 ± 0.42 nm h^–1, particle formation rate is 1.14 ± 0.22 cm^–3 s^–1, coagulation sink is 0.35 ± 0.22 cm^–3 s^–1, and condensational sink is 15.4 ± 2.6?×?10^–3 s^–1. All these values are comparable with earlier results from Indian region. Comparison of size-segregated particle number concentration during days of new particle formation events and those without new particle formation were carried out showing a distinct variation in nucleation and Aitken mode with least variability associated with the accumulation mode.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSIIED MODELS FOR TWO SIERRA NEVADA BASINS USING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Techniques were developed using vector and raster data in a geographic information system (GIS) to define the spatial variability of watershed characteristics in the north-central Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada and to assist in computing model input parameters. The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter watershed model, simulates runoff for a basin by partitioning a watershed into areas that each have a homogeneous hydrologic response to precipitation or snowmelt. These land units, known as hydrologic-response units (HRU's), are characterized according to physical properties, such as altitude, slope, aspect, land cover, soils, and geology, and climate patterns. Digital data were used to develop a GIS data base and HRIJ classification for the American River and Carson River basins. The following criteria are used in delineating HRU's: (1) Data layers are hydrologically significant and have a resolution appropriate to the watershed's natural spatial variability, (2) the technique for delineating HRU's accommodates different classification criteria and is reproducible, and (3) HRU's are not limited by hydrographic-subbasin boundaries. HRU's so defined are spatially noncontiguous. The result is an objective, efficient methodology for characterizing a watershed and for delineating HRU's. Also, digital data can be analyzed and transformed to assist in defining parameters and in calibrating the model.     

Storage of CO2 in saline aquifers: Effects of gravity, viscous, and capillary forces on amount and timing of trapping

CO₂ can be effectively immobilized during CO₂ injection into saline aquifers by residual trapping – also known as capillary trapping – a process resulting from capillary snap-off of isolated CO₂ bubbles. Simulations of CO₂ injection were performed to investigate the interplay of viscous and gravity forces and capillary trapping of CO₂. Results of those simulations show that gas injection processes in which gravitational forces are weak compared to viscous forces (low gravity number N_gv) trap significantly more CO₂ than do flows with strong gravitational forces relative to the viscous forces (high N_gv). The results also indicate that over a wide range of gravity numbers (N_gv), significant fractions of the trapping of CO₂ can occur relatively quickly. The amount of CO₂ that is trapped after injection ceases is demonstrated to correlate with N_gv. For some simulated displacements, effects of capillary pressure and aquifer dip angle on the amount and the rate of trapping are reported. Trapping increases when effects of capillary pressure and aquifer inclination are included in the model. Finally we show that injection schemes such as alternating injection of brine and CO₂ or brine injection after CO₂ injection can also enhance the trapping behavior.