新邵县工矿破坏土地的生态重建模式探索

对新邵县现有的因工程建设、矿产开发而形成的破坏土地进行调查、分类.根据不同的类型采取不同的工程、林学措施,试图重建以木本植物为主的生态群落结构.     

金钟藤的年轮生长量与气候因子的相互关系

分析了金钟藤(Merremiaboisiana(Gagn.)vanOoststr.)的年轮特征,并探讨了它与温度等气候因子的关系。金钟藤的年轮极不规则,有许多自然隆起和裂缝。金钟藤的年轮生长量通过格子法来估算。结果表明金钟藤年轮的年平均生长量与温度呈极显著正相关,与降水、日照时数和相对湿度相关性不显著。罗浮山地区降水和日照时数基本能够满足金钟藤的生长,结合相关研究结果推测:温度可能是金钟藤快速生长的主要驱动因子。     

火电厂锅炉炉膛灭火放炮事故树分析

针对火力发电厂锅炉炉膛灭火放炮的典型事故,采用事故树分析法进行定性分析,以便更有效地制定预防措施。     

Prenatal diagnosis of ring chromosome 6

An amniocentesis was performed on a gravida 1, para 0 23-year-old female because of high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and nuchal thickening/cystic mass apparent on the fetal ultrasound. Detailed ultrasound examination revealed multiple anomalies including brain abnormalities. The fetus was found to have a mosaic female karyotype: 45,XX, - 6/46,XX,r(6) (p25q27) (62 per cent:38 per cent). This is the first report of a prenatally diagnosed case of ring chromosome 6.     

基于BN的锅炉超压爆炸事故原因推理与故障诊断

分析了锅炉爆炸的原因,讨论了事故树与贝叶斯网络的特点,编制了以"锅炉超压爆炸事故"为顶事件的事故树,将其转化为锅炉超压爆炸事故贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,利用贝叶斯网络的技术优势,针对锅炉超压爆炸事故贝叶斯网络拓扑结构分别进行了原因推理与诊断推理。实例应用表明,在原因推理中,根节点V_1(压力上升)发生时锅炉超压爆炸事故发生的可能性最高;在诊断推理中,当锅炉超压爆炸事故发生时,根节点V_1(压力上升)一定发生,其次为V_4(定压不准),V_(11)(未装疏水管)发生的可能性最小,为企业进行锅炉超压爆炸事故预测与故障诊断提供了理论依据。     

A methodology for enhancing the reliability of expert system applications in probabilistic risk assessment

In highly complex industries, capturing and employing expert systems is significantly important to an organization's success considering the advantages of knowledge-based systems. The two most important issues within the expert system applications in risk and reliability analysis are the acquisition of domain experts' professional knowledge and the reasoning and representation of the knowledge that might be expressed. The first issue can be correctly handled by employing a heterogeneous group of experts during the expert knowledge acquisition processes. The members of an expert panel regularly represent different experiences and knowledge. Subsequently, this diversity produces various sorts of information which may be known or unknown, accurate or inaccurate, and complete or incomplete based on its cross-functional and multidisciplinary nature. The second issue, as a promising tool for knowledge reasoning, still suffers from lack of deficiencies such as weight and certainty factor, and are insufficient to accurately represent complex rule-based expert systems. The outputs in current expert system applications in probabilistic risk assessment could not accurately represent the increasingly complex knowledge-based systems. The reason is the lack of certainty and self-assurance of experts when they are expressing their opinions. In this paper, a novel methodology is presented based on the concept of Z-numbers to overcome this issue. A case study in a high-tech process industry is provided in detail to demonstrate the application and feasibility of the proposed methodology.     

基于FTA-IOT的高校校园安全系统性分析

为了更好的预防校园安全事故的发生,利用事故树方法研究了校园安全中的住宿安全、交通安全和饮食安全问题。论文通过计算事故树的最小径集对三类安全所有基本事件的结构重要性进行了分析,得出了对三类安全影响最大的因素。结果显示,财产丢失、火灾初期的控制是影响住宿安全的主要因素;校园车辆管理和人的行为是影响校园交通安全的主要因素;学生的不良饮水习惯、食堂卫生管理是影响饮食安全的主要因素。基于此,论文提出了基于物联网以RFID技术来提升校园的安全水平的措施。     

某型橡胶密封圈加速贮存试验设计与实践

目的针对某型橡胶密封圈开展加速贮存试验设计,并通过试验预测产品贮存寿命。方法通过分析橡胶密封圈在贮存使用环境下的失效机理,结合橡胶材料性能老化模型,在不改变失效机理、又不增加新的失效机理的前提下,以密封圈整件作为试验对象,用加大温度应力的试验方法加速产品失效过程,根据试验结果预计正常环境应力下的产品贮存寿命。结果采用温度应力作为加速贮存应力开展密封圈加速贮存试验方案设计和验证工作,评估得到其在贮存温度为20℃的环境中,贮存寿命可以达到16.97年,置信度大于0.95。结论以密封圈整件作为试验件,采用温度应力作为贮存敏感应力开展加速贮存试验,所评估得到的贮存寿命与产品已有的自然贮存寿命结果吻合得较好,试验状态更加真实,为橡胶密封圈更换周期提供参考依据,并为密封圈贮存寿命的定量评估提供了一种参考方法。     

热磨试间火灾爆炸风险分析

采用层次分析法对热磨试间火灾爆炸风险进行分析,以某企业热磨试间内热磨合作业过程为例建立了评价模型。为提高层次分析法的准确性和有效性,在层次分析法之前,引入事故树,通过事故树确定各级指标,在层次分析法之后,通过与模糊数学相结合,对模型进行模糊评价,得出模型所处等级D=0.7087,即该企业热磨试间火灾爆炸风险为"危险性较大"等级。研究表明,"事故树-模糊层次分析法"应用于热磨试间火灾爆炸风险分析是可行的,有助于企业有针对性地制定安全措施,预防热磨试间火灾爆炸事故的发生。     

Study on the investment value and investment opportunity of renewable energies under the carbon trading system

China has promised to start the national carbon trading system in 2017. In the carbon trading system, the renewable energy projects may obtain additional benefits through the Certified Carbon Emission Reduction (CCER) trade. As the carbon price fluctuates along with the market conditions, such fluctuation enables the renewable power projects to acquire the rights of an option, i.e. it may contain an even higher value due to the uncertainties in the future. While making an investment decision, the renewable power companies may choose to make the investment immediately, or postpone the investment and accumulate more information to increase the return of investment; and for immediate investments, the return must be sufficient to exceed the potential value of a waiting option. To study the investment in renewable power projects subject to the fluctuation of carbon price, this paper adopts the trinomial tree model of real options to estimate the net present value (NPV) and real option value (ROV) of three types of renewable power projects; according to the decision-making rules of real options to defer, all the three types of projects will exercise the option to postpone the investment decision. This thesis also calculates the benchmark prices of the three types of renewable projects at different times, in the two situations of having no government subsidy and having the government subsidy, so as to determine the investment opportunity of a project. The benchmark price decreases gradually along with the increase of government subsidy, indicating that the government subsidy will stimulate the investment in renewable projects. The benchmark price also increases gradually along with the lapse of time, indicating that the uncertainty will increase together with the time span and thus requires an even higher carbon price to determine the investment opportunity. This thesis also analyzes the sensitivity of factors affecting the investment in renewable projects and draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of carbon price is positively related with the benchmark price of renewable power projects, which indicates that the fluctuation of carbon price increases the option value of an investment but postpones the time of investment. As the China’s carbon trading system improves gradually, the carbon price will reach a stable status, thus stimulate the power companies to invest in the renewable projects.