Land Use,Land-Use Change,Forestry, and Agricultural Activities in the Clean Development Mechanism: Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Offset Potential

Activities involving land use, land-use change,forestry, and agriculture (LUCF) can help reducegreenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphereby increasing biotic carbon storage, by decreasing GHGemissions, and by producing biomass as a substitutefor fossil fuels. Potential activities includereducing rates of deforestation, increasing landdevoted to forest plantations, regenerating secondaryforest, agroforestry, improving the management offorests and agricultural areas; and producing energycrops.Policymakers debating the inclusion of a variety ofLUCF activities in the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol need to consider themagnitude of the carbon contribution these activitiescould make. Existing estimates of the cumulative GHGoffset potential of LUCF activities often take aglobal or regional approach. In contrast, land-usedecisions are usually made at the local level anddepend on many factors including productive capacityof the land, financial considerations of thelandowner, and environmental concerns. Estimates ofGHG offset potential made at a local, or at mostcountry, level that incorporate these factors may belower, as well as more useful for policy analyses,than global or large regional estimates. Whilecountry-level estimates exist for forestry activities,similar estimates utilizing local information need tobe generated for agricultural activities and biofuels,as well as for the cumulative potential of all LUCFactivities in a particular location.     

火炬系统环境风险评价

本文运用事故树法分析了火炬熄火事故发生的概率，并结合实例，估计了这种事故排污对环境的影响后果，提出了预防措施。     

青藏高原路侧土壤重金属含量分布规律及影响因素研究

以青藏高原G214、S308和G109国(省)道的部分路段为研究对象,采集了这3个路段不同位置处距路侧不同距离的100个表层土壤样品,利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)测定了各样品中重金属元素Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb的含量.同时,用非线性回归法拟合了Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb元素含量随距路侧距离变化的曲线,并用CHAID决策树分析法分析了影响路侧土壤Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb元素含量的主导因素.结果表明:3个研究路段路侧土壤重金属平均含量均超过土壤背景值,已产生一定的富集;Cu、Zn、Cd、Pb 4种重金属元素含量随距路侧距离的增加均呈指数型下降趋势;影响研究路段重金属含量的主导因素因不同的元素各异,影响Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd含量的主导因素分别为海拔、土壤类型、车流量和路侧距离.     

故障树分析在重大吊装作业中的应用

利用故障树分析计算重大吊装作业中可能造成吊车倾覆的发生概率和结构重要度,并计算出基本事件概率重要度,为制定防范措施重要性排序提供依据。     

基于Landsat 8 OLI数据的树种类型分布提取

树种分布是林业调查工作中的关键环节,遥感影像中对树种信息的提取具有重要意义。论文以福建省长汀县为研究区,收集2016年3月美国陆地卫星影像(Landsat 8 OLI)数据,提出基于知识库的图像膨胀分类方法,结合不同树种类型分布点的影像像元灰度与影像不同波段的重新排列,对杉类、松类、竹类与阔叶树类4个类型提取分布信息,结合地面验证坐标点进行精度评价,同时与专家知识分类法比较。结果显示图像膨胀法结合了地物分布特征与光谱信息,在Landsat 8 OLI影像中是可行的,并提高了精度,整体精度为83.01%,Kappa系数为0.77,与专家知识分类法相比分别提高了8.25%、0.11。该研究为快速精确地使用Landsat 8 OLI影像提取树种分布信息具有一定参考。     

基于贝叶斯网络的汽车起重机液压系统的可靠性评估

为评估汽车起重机液压系统的可靠性,首先结合故障树分析法(FTA)、贝叶斯网络(BN)构建液压系统故障树,然后映射成BN,再利用其在多态性和不确定性方面的优势,应用桶排除法,对系统进行可靠性评估。在给出底事件的发生概率后,通过正向推理,得到顶事件发生的概率为0.191 016。针对模型进行多态性和不确定性修正后,得到的顶事件概率为0.228 073,相对提高19.4%。最后利用反向推理,找出系统的薄弱环节并给出改正措施,为更全面高效的可靠性评估提出一种新方法。     

事故树定性分析法在实际运用中存在的问题

事故树分析法是一种应用广泛的系统安全分析方法,特别是其定性分析法在安全评价、事故调查分析中得到普遍运用。但是这种方法在实际运用中存在一些常见的问题,不易引起人们的重视。该文根据目前事故树分析法在实际运用中存在的一些突出问题,从定性分析,即最小割集和最小径集求取、结构重要度排序、事故树结果分析三个方面进行了探究,这些问题的存在说明了只有深刻的理解系统分析方法的内在涵义才能在实践中得到正确运用。文中在提出问题的同时给出了正确的运用步骤,力求使这种方法的运用更加规范、正确。     

斜井运输中矿车压人事故FTA分析

以斜井施工为例，运用FTA分析法，对斜井运输中矿车倾翻，压人致死事故进行分析，找出了导致事故发生的主要原因，并提出了相应的安全防范措施。     

Effect of Cattle Grazing and Seedling Size on the Establishment ofAraucaria cunninghamiiin a Silvo-pastoral System in Northeast Australia

A study was undertaken to assess the effect of tree age at which grazing commenced and seedling size on the establishment ofAraucaria cunninghamii(hoop pine) trees in a silvo-pastoral system on the Atherton Tablelands of northeast Australia. Grazing with dairy cattle commenced at three ages after tree planting: (1) 2 weeks; (2) 6 months and (3) 18 months. Seedlings of two size classes, small (15 cm tall and 18 months old) and large (45 cm tall and 27 months old), were used. Trees were measured for survival and height, and assessed for physical damage and development of multi-stems at ages 6, 12 and 24 months. Results showed that tree survival and height did not differ significantly with age at which grazing commenced and that grazing did not cause unacceptable mortality, damage or reduction in height growth ofA. cunninghamii. The lack of cattle impact was mainly becauseA. cunninghamiihas a special morphological feature, prickly needles, which discourages cattle from physical contact. Although tree height ofA. cunninghamiivaried significantly between the two seedling sizes, the difference became smaller as the trees grew. It is suggested that for the establishment ofA. cunninghamiiin silvo-pastoral systems, grazing can be allowed almost immediately after tree planting, providing an appropriate stocking rate is used. There are no apparent advantages in using larger, compared with smaller, seedlings.     

基于不同树干高度树轮宽度的历史气候重建潜力研究

本研究利用新疆伊犁地区雪岭云杉不同树干高度树轮样本建立树轮宽度年表,并尝试使用该年表进行历史气候重建。相关分析表明,10 m树干高度树轮年表与当年6—7月平均最低气温相关显著,相关系数可达0.585（P＜0.001）。利用10 m树干高度树轮标准化年表建立了研究区1841—2014年当年6—7月平均最低气温,重建方程稳定可靠。分析表明,重建序列出现了5个偏冷阶段和4个偏暖阶段。其中,1938—1965年和1866—1912年分别是持续时间最长的偏冷和偏暖阶段。重建序列存在2.11 a、2.99—3.10 a、5.09 a、5.47 a、8.08 a、68.03 a的显著周期（P＜0.05）。该重建序列的建立进一步证明了利用不同树干高度树轮年表开展气候重建的可能性。在野外采样环境允许的情况下,可以将树干更高处树轮样本纳入采样范围。