Evaluation of the safety performance of highway alignments based on fault tree analysis and safety boundaries

Objectives: To overcome the limitations of previous highway alignment safety evaluation methods, this article presents a highway alignment safety evaluation method based on fault tree analysis (FTA) and the characteristics of vehicle safety boundaries, within the framework of dynamic modeling of the driver–vehicle–road system.

Methods: Approaches for categorizing the vehicle failure modes while driving on highways and the corresponding safety boundaries were comprehensively investigated based on vehicle system dynamics theory. Then, an overall crash probability model was formulated based on FTA considering the risks of 3 failure modes: losing steering capability, losing track-holding capability, and rear-end collision.

Results: The proposed method was implemented on a highway segment between Bengbu and Nanjing in China. A driver–vehicle–road multibody dynamics model was developed based on the 3D alignments of the Bengbu to Nanjing section of Ning-Luo expressway using Carsim, and the dynamics indices, such as sideslip angle and, yaw rate were obtained. Then, the average crash probability of each road section was calculated with a fixed-length method. Finally, the average crash probability was validated against the crash frequency per kilometer to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results of the regression analysis and correlation analysis indicated good consistency between the results of the safety evaluation and the crash data and that it outperformed the safety evaluation methods used in previous studies.

Conclusion: The proposed method has the potential to be used in practical engineering applications to identify crash-prone locations and alignment deficiencies on highways in the planning and design phases, as well as those in service.     

Sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to spruce bark beetles in Slovenia: A model and projections for various climate change scenarios

A model is presented to predict sanitary felling of Norway spruce (Picea abies) due to spruce bark beetles (Ips typographus, Pityogenes chalcographus) in Slovenia according to different climate change scenarios. The model incorporates 21 variables that are directly or indirectly related to the dependent variable, and that can be arranged into five groups: climate, forest, landscape, topography, and soil. The soil properties are represented by 8 variables, 4 variables define the topography, 4 describe the climate, 4 define the landscape, and one additional variable provides the quantity of Norway spruce present in the model cell. The model was developed using the M5′ model tree. The basic spatial unit of the model is 1 km², and the time resolution is 1 year. The model evaluation was performed by three different measures: (1) the correlation coefficient (51.9%), (2) the Theil's inequality coefficient (0.49) and (3) the modelling efficiency (0.32). Validation of the model was carried out by 10-fold cross-validation. The model tree consists of 28 linear models, and model was calculated for three different climate change scenarios extending over a period until 2100, in 10-year intervals. The model is valid for the entire area of Slovenia; however, climate change projections were made only for the Maribor region (596 km²). The model assumes that relationships among the incorporated factors will remain unchanged under climate change, and the influence of humans was not taken into account. The structure of the model reveals the great importance of landscape variables, which proved to be positively correlated with the dependent variable. Variables that describe the water regime in the model cell were also highly correlated with the dependent variable, with evapotranspiration and parent material being of particular importance. The results of the model support the hypothesis that bark beetles do greater damage to Norway spruce artificially planted out of its native range in Slovenia, i.e., lowlands and soils rich in N, P, and K. The model calculation for climate change scenarios in the Maribor region shows an increase in sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to spruce bark beetles, for all scenarios. The model provides a path towards better understanding of the complex ecological interactions involved in bark beetle outbreaks. Potential application of the results in forest management and planning is discussed.     

我国苏南地区香樟树皮赋存的二英类污染特征及来源

为分析长江下游经济高速发展区的POPs污染特征,于2012年8月在苏南地区典型城市10个采样点采集香樟树皮,应用高分辨气相色谱-高分辨质谱(HRGC-HRMS)联用技术对二英(PCDD/Fs)浓度水平进行监测,同时采用主成分分析(PCA)法探讨其可能来源. 结果表明:苏南地区香樟树皮中二英的毒性当量(I-TEQ)浓度(以干质量计,下同)为5.6～12.2 pg/g,平均值为7.2 pg/g;4～8氯代二英同族体质量分数(以干质量计)范围为418～938 pg/g,平均值为635 pg/g. 由于二英在大气中的长距离迁移潜力较强,在研究的苏南地区区域尺度上,其含量在城市中心区和对照区之间的差异性并不明显;苏南地区香樟树皮二英质量分数及毒性当量浓度均高于国外报道的背景区及典型城市中树皮的水平. 对比典型二英排放源及树皮中二英特征谱图,可推断苏南地区香樟树皮中二英可能主要来源于危险(医疗)废物焚烧、机动车尾气排放和工业燃烧源.      

植物释放有益挥发性有机物研究进展

植物释放的有益挥发性有机物(Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds,BVOCs)作为一类重要医疗保健资源,除能够增强人体免疫力、调节情绪、治疗慢性疾病外,在大气环境质量、地球生态系统及全球碳循环平衡方面均发挥着多重作用,因此具有极高研究价值和应用前景.而在传统城市园林绿地植物选择和配置时...     

电芬顿氧化法处理酸性橙Ⅱ模拟废水

为分解酸性橙Ⅱ分子结构中的偶氮键和萘环,提高酸性橙Ⅱ废水的可生化性,采用电芬顿氧化法处理质量浓度为300mg/L的酸性橙Ⅱ模拟废水,研究了不同电流密度对电芬顿系统处理效率的影响.结果表明,在不同电流密度条件下,模拟废水ρ(CODCr)由377.8 mg/L快速降至276.9 mg/L时,消耗的电量分别为300 C(10.0 mA/cm2)、810 C(7.5 mA/cm2)、2 190 C(5.0mA/cm2)和1 710 C(2.5 mA/cm2),说明在高电流密度条件下,电芬顿反应器能够高效快速地分解酸性橙Ⅱ,同时消耗最低的电量.电芬顿系统处理出水的紫外可见光谱检测结果表明,在较高电流密度(7.5 mA/cm2)条件下,电芬顿系统仅需要10 min就能够基本完全分解酸性橙Ⅱ分子结构中的偶氮键和萘环,提高废水的可生化性.      

Sensitivity of the Structural Characteristics of Tree Rings to Climatic Changes in Different Climatypes of Scotch Pine

Radial increment and tree-ring structure were studied in the progenies of 16 climatypes growing in the southern taiga subzone. The coefficients of correlation between tree-ring parameters of the local and other climatypes were as high as 0.7–0.9, and the synchronism coefficients were higher than 0.7. Climatypes of northern origin were an exception. The sensitivity of the parameters of the tree-ring late wood decreased with an increase in the latitude at which the seeds for establishing the cultures were collected. Estimation of Euclidean distances in the space of tree-ring parameters showed that the northern climatypes differed from the southern taiga types by no more than 15%. The climatypes from the middle taiga and the forest–steppe exhibited smaller differences (10–11%).     

计算机辅助事故树分析研究

计算机辅助事故树分析中,求最小割集和绘制事故树是非常重要的。实用中,由于事故树往往规模庞大且最小割集的数目难以预知,这就使传统的用不能动态扩充的数组实现的计算机算法在应用时受到很大限制。本应用VC＋＋（MFC）中可动态扩充的数组类数据结构,实现求最小割集的Fussell算法,并提出和实现“堆砖法”计算机辅助事故树绘图。     

中国森林火灾与对策

本文剖析了我国森林火灾与损失概况和我国森林火灾分布及其特点。根据森林燃烧环理论,提出了符合我国国情的综合森林防火对策,即从森林生态系统角度出发,以林火性状为依据,进行火险区划,以工程防火为中心,群众防火为主,营林、生物防火为基础,有条件地用火防火的对策,有效地控制森林火灾,使火灾发生控制在允许范围内,其损失限制在一定经济水平以下,充分发挥火生态的效益,维护生态平衡,保证林区社会安定和林区经济的不断繁荣与发展。     

Pre-instrumental perspectives on Arkansas River cross-watershed flow variability

We present four reconstruction estimates of Arkansas River baseflow and streamflow using a total of 78 tree-ring chronologies for three streamflow gages, geographically spanning the headwaters in Colorado to near the confluence of the Arkansas-Mississippi rivers. The estimates represent different seasonal windows, which are dictated by the shared limiting forcing of precipitation on seasonal tree growth and soil moisture—and subsequently on the variability of Arkansas River discharge. Flow extremes that were higher and lower than what has been observed in the instrumental era are recorded in each of the four reconstructions. Years of concurrent, cross-basin (all sites) low flow appear more frequently during the 20th and 21st Centuries compared to any period since 1600 A.D., however, no significant trend in cross-basin low flow is observed. As the most downstream major tributary of the Mississippi River, the Arkansas River directly influences flood risk in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Estimates of extreme high flow in downstream reconstructions coincide with specific years of historic flooding documented in New Orleans, Louisiana, just upstream of the Mississippi River Delta. By deduction, Mississippi River flooding in years of low Arkansas River flow imply exceptional flooding contributions from the Upper Mississippi River catchments.     

主减速器橡胶密封圈性能衰减模型及日历寿命评估

目的 构建主减速器橡胶密封圈储存/装机条件下的性能衰减模型,评估其实际储存日历寿命、储存/装机条件下的折算系数。方法 将功能结构件实际尺寸（实际装配、初始轴向厚度和压缩时轴向厚度）、实际生产产品尺寸和安全裕度相结合,确定橡胶密封件的失效判据。对实际使用的FX-4、FX-17橡胶密封圈2种初始压缩率的装机状态下进行5个温度点的加速老化试验,测定2种橡胶密封圈压缩永久变形率的老化指标参数,利用回归分析得到相应的衰减模型,结合实际储存13a的橡胶密封圈的压缩永久变形率进行检验,确定储存/装机条件下的折算系数。结果 以25%为失效判据,橡胶密封圈储存年限可达19.8 a。结论 为了保证使用安全和外场计算方便,FX-4密封圈装机使用1 a相当于储存2 a,FX-17密封圈装机使用1 a相当于储存3 a。