A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

A bayesian network-based safety assessment method for solid propellant granule-casting molding process

The safety of the solid propellant molding process is vital for the stable production of high-quality propellants. Failure events caused by abnormal parameters in the molding process may have catastrophic consequences. In this paper, a Bayesian network (BN) model is proposed to assess the safety of the solid propellant granule-casting molding process. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is developed to construct a causal link between process variables and process failures. Subsequently, expert experience and fuzzy set theory (FST) are used to obtain failure probabilities of the basic events (BEs). Based on the mapping rules, FTA provides BN with reliable prior knowledge and a network structure with interpretability. Finally, when new evidence is obtained, the probability is updated with the diagnostic reasoning capability of BN. The results of the sensitivity analysis and diagnostic inference were combined to identify key parameters in the granule-casting molding process, including curing temperature, vacuum degree, extrusion, calendering roll distance, length setting value, holding time, and polish time. The results of this paper can provide effective supporting information for managers to conduct process safety analysis.     

Formation of Two Xylem Frost Injuries in One Annual Ring in Siberian Spruce under Conditions of Western Siberian Forest-Tundra

The phenomenon of the formation of two damaged xylem layers in one frost ring is described in Siberian spruce grown in western Siberian forest-tundra. Temperature conditions providing for the formation of pathological cell and tissue structures are determined. The relationship between the formation of double frost injuries and cold periods is demonstrated.     

秦皇岛市4种常见绿化植物滞尘效应研究

通过对秦皇岛市4种常见绿化植物的叶片滞尘量、单株滞尘能力及相关因素的研究,发现绿化植物单位叶面积的滞尘量最大可以相差2.5倍左右,树种叶片滞尘能力的大小排序为：国槐＞悬铃木＞金银木＞连翘,单株滞尘能力的大小排序为：悬铃木＞国槐＞金银木＞连翘;绿化植物的滞尘量与环境中粉尘含量成正比,树木滞尘能力还与叶片表面性状、叶面积指数及植物所处环境等因素有关。     

Organic farmers in islands: Agricultural management and attitude towards the environment

SUMMARY

This study explores differences among organic farmers who live in islands and have isolated small-size operations. The relationships between farmers' characteristics and attitudes and farm management were interpreted by studying how they manage their land, their attitudes towards the environment and alternative farming systems, and their involvement in organic farming. The research was carried out using questionnaires addressed to organic farmers on the island of Thassos. Nonlinear canonical correlation was applied for data analysis. This information could contribute to adjustment of policy decisions for on-farm diversification. Agricultural policy makers should approach organic farmers in northern Thassos (productive irrigated olive orchards with gentle slopes) by enacting standards to reduce the cost of alternative plant protection methods and promoting their products in order to maintain and expand organic farming. They should also approach organic farmers in southern Thassos (less productive, dry cultivated olive orchards with steep slopes, overgrazed and often abandoned) by providing them with the necessary information and appropriate agricultural know-how to effectively manage their farms. Organic farmers with stable off-farm income are more aware of environmental values and consider that they risk less than others in order to gain the benefits of alternative farming systems. However, they should attend training programmes to achieve economic success to allow them to continue farming organically.     

广州市内环路项目环境策略研究

广州市内环路工程是广州市中心区内在建的一条连续性的高等级环市道路 ,全长 2 6 7公里 ,其主要功能是为了缓解市内交通问题。文中分析了内环路工程产生的主要环境问题 ,从系统工程角度探讨和提出了环境保护的对策措施。     

Analysis and Modeling on the Spatial Structure of Urban Land Use: A Case of Jinan, China

Based on the data of urban land use obtained by remote sensing interpretation from aero images in 1986 and 2004, the spatial structure of Jinan is studied in this paper with the method of Geographic Information System (GIS). According to the proportion of land for residence, industry and commerce, the urban district can be distinguished into three rings. Compared with the traditional theory of the ring structure in Western coun- tries, they have many distinctive characteristics. The main func- tions of the inner ring include residence, business and banking, but the proportion of residential land (more than 50%) is considerably higher than that of the cities in Western countries. The land proportion for residence and industry in the intermediate ring is equal on the whole. The main land of the outside ring is for industrial use. From 1986 to 2004, great changes have taken place on the land proportion of different types of use. In the inner ring, the land for residential and industrial use has shrunk much while the land for commercial use has increased. In the intermediate ring, the changes of the three types of land use were not very much and the temporal variation was relatively stable. On the contrary, the structure in the outside ring varies acutely. Though most of it is also for industrial use, the proportion of residential land has in- creased much. The three rings can also be divided into several sectors respectively, according to the function of land use clusters. New trends and mechanisms of the changes of land use impacting the urban structure were proposed in the end of the paper.     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

圆环巴西试验的抗拉强度建议公式

目的改进Hobbs公式得到的计算值普遍较大这一问题,提出圆环巴西试验的抗拉强度建议公式。方法对巴西试验圆环的应力解进行分析,并引用砂岩的试验数据验证。结果得到圆环巴西试验的抗拉强度建议公式,使用Hobbs公式得到的抗拉强度σTT比巴西圆盘试验σT大6倍以上,利用建议公式得到的抗拉强度σθ与巴西圆盘试验σT十分接近,误差不到1%。结论当圆环内外径比ρ在0.05到0.15的范围内时,该建议公式可很好地用来计算岩石类等脆性材料的抗拉强度。