长白山红松和臭冷杉树轮密度变化特征及其气候响应

本研究建立了长白山红松和臭冷杉的全轮、早晚材密度年表,并分析了2个树种的树轮密度变化特征及其与平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和降水量的相关关系。结果表明：两树种树轮密度变化具有一致性。红松树轮密度对气候变化更加敏感,而臭冷杉树轮密度变化相对稳定。两树种树轮密度年表与平均气温和平均最低气温整体呈显著正相关,而与平均最高气温和降水量的相关性相对较弱。其中,生长季早期（4—5月）的平均最低气温可能是影响树轮密度变化的主要因素。响应面分析结果表明：随着生长季早期的平均最低气温上升,两树种早材密度与平均最低气温呈现先减弱后增强的响应趋势,而与生长季早期的降水呈现先增强后减弱的响应趋势。滑动相关分析显示：随着气候变暖,两树种树轮密度年表均对生长季晚期（9—10月）平均气温和生长季早晚期平均最低气温的正响应显著增强,而对生长季晚期平均最高气温的正相关减小,与降水的响应相对稳定。臭冷杉的树轮密度年表对上年12月平均最高气温和当年4月平均最低气温的响应出现显著的正负转换现象。     

Monitoring the growth of American beech affected by beech bark disease in Maine using the Kalman filter

The effect of beech bark disease on tree growth was tracked using paired resistant and susceptible American beech trees in two locations in Maine. Within each site, the paired trees were chosen in close proximity and with similar morphological characteristics (e.g. stem diameter and crown class) to minimize environment effects in subsequent analysis. A Kalman filter approach was employed to analyse the yearly time-dependent mean differences between paired susceptible and resistant tree-ring widths using simple structural time series models in state space form. On one site, under the influence of a moderate maritime climate, stand dynamics is hypothesized to account for the 34 year difference in onset of decline of trees in codominant, versus those in the intermediate crown classes. The harsher winter conditions associated with the second, more northerly site and known to limit the insect component of the disease complex, are hypothesized to be more of a factor in the close (six year) difference in decline onset between the two crown classes on this site. Some strengths and cautions in the Kalman filter approach are discussed in relation to the analysis of time-dependent trends in tree-ring series.     

定性物理模拟FM上下V拔长圆柱体

采用定性物理模拟的方法对FM上下V锻造法锻件心部的应力状态进行了实验分析,得出了当上砧宽比W/D_0=0.34时,锻件心部处于三向压应力的结果。实验结果与定量物理模拟相吻合。     

Evidence of an Edge Effect on Avian Nest Success

Abstract:  Habitat fragmentation may modify ecological patterns by increasing the importance of edge effects, including elevating rates of predation on avian nests. Conventional wisdom suggests an increased rate of predation along habitat edges, and previous reviews support this view. These reviews did not apply recent statistical approaches, however, and some were based on a small number of studies. In our meta-analysis of 64 nest-predation experiments, our results supported prior reviews of the general pattern of increased nest predation along habitat edges (  p < 0.01). We separated studies into ecologically relevant categories and found the following patterns: (1) Edge effects were more pronounced in North America and northwestern Europe than in central Europe or Central America. This result may be biased, however, by the different habitats studied in the regions. (2) Marshes and deciduous forests had significant edge effects, whereas edge effects were not apparent in coniferous forests, tropical forests, or fields. (3) Ground and natural nest studies were more likely to exhibit edge effects. (4) Edge effects were detected in studies that used quail eggs and real eggs. (5) Edge effects were not significant when artificial nests were exposed for typical incubation periods, but were significant for shorter exposures. Three alternative hypotheses may explain increased nest predation along edges. The edge-effects hypothesis states that increased nest losses along edges are the result of the habitat discontinuity. The landscape-structure hypothesis states that more fragmented landscapes are more heavily depredated by nest predators. The human-disturbance hypothesis states that near anthropogenic edges increased nest predation is related to human activities. Nest-predation experiments should be placed in a landscape context to reveal differences between the hypotheses.     

Tree-ring analysis for the assessment of anthropogenic changes and trends

Investigation of Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)annual radial increment (width of annual tree rings) was carriedout in the surroundings of one of the largest pollution sources inLithuania – Jonava Nitrogen Fertilizers Plant. The main objectiveof investigation was to analyse different sides of anthropogenictransformations of tree-ring series in the polluted environment:changes in tree growth intensity; variance changes in tree-ringseries; changes in the relations with natural external factors.Three different periods of tree reaction to the environmentalpollution were singled out – fertilization period, depressionperiod and recovery period since annual emissions were essentiallyreduced. The variance of tree-ring series has increased severaltimes in the polluted environment. Reaction of trees to the impactof climatic factors (temperature, precipitation) has changedsignificantly in the polluted environment and their sensitivity hasalso increased.     

空腔及其耦合水袋抑制瓦斯爆炸实验研究

为探索一种新型瓦斯抑爆技术,设计宽径比分别为1.5,2.5,4的矩形空腔体,并基于自行搭建的长36 m,管径为200 mm的大型瓦斯爆炸实验系统,通过在管网中铺设不同宽径比空腔体结构开展抑爆实验。此外依托支护简单的宽径比为2.5的空腔体,在腔体内填充不同质量水袋开展实验,以期进一步提高空腔体抑爆性能。结果表明:对于长径比为2.5、高径比为1的空腔体在实验宽径比范围内均能在一定程度上抑制瓦斯爆炸强度;随着腔体宽径比的增加,截面面积变化率增大,火焰及冲击波超压峰值衰减幅度越大,抑爆效果越佳;空腔耦合抑爆剂水能提高腔体的抑爆效果,在实验范围内较纯空腔可使火焰抑制率最大提高70%,超压峰值抑制率最大提高263%。     

我国西南地区喀斯特森林树木年轮对气候变化的响应

利用贵州省2个典型喀斯特地区与1个非喀斯特地区的6个优势树种(化香树Platycarya strobilacea为重复树种)的树轮宽度资料,建立了6个树轮宽度年表,研究了不同地区不同树种的树木年轮对近50年来气候变化的响应异同,探讨了影响6个优势树种生长的气候限制因素。结果表明,季风期前的水热条件是喀斯特地区针叶树和阔叶树径向生长的最主要的气候限制因素。季风期前降水减少、月均温升高,导致土壤水分蒸发加快,加强了水分胁迫,不利于喀斯特地区针叶树和阔叶树的生长。帕尔默干旱指数虽表明喀斯特地区未达到干旱胁迫程度,但实际上水分渗漏加剧了喀斯特地区针叶树和阔叶树生长的水分胁迫。非喀斯特地区采样点的高海拔导致的低温,减少了春冬季节土壤水分蒸发。并且非喀斯特地区土壤和地形有利于水分涵养,同时,较高海拔的地形改变了季风期前的降水格局,消除了季风到来前树木生长的降水限制,因此,降水并不是喀斯特地区树木生长的限制因子;但其针叶树的径向生长受到上一年12月的温度控制,产生正响应信号,阔叶树径向生长仅受到生长季温度、降水增加带来的较小促进。     

大别山1846 — 2010年干湿变化记录——来自树轮宽度的证据

中国亚热带地区树轮气候学研究已取得较大进展,但气候重建基本都集中在温度方面,基于树轮宽度的水文气候研究鲜有成果,不利于全面理解亚热带地区历史气候变化特征。本文基于北亚热带大别山地区黄山松树轮宽度年表与气候要素的相关分析,发现树轮宽度指数与上一年4—7月平均相对湿度显著负相关（r=?0.68,p<0.01）。在此基础上,重建了大别山地区1846—2010年4—7月平均相对湿度变化历史。重建序列方差解释量达到46.4%（调整自由度后为45.3%）。在整个重建时段中存在3个湿润期（1891—1903,1905—1921和1950—1993年）和3个干旱期（1868—1890,1922—1934和1994—2005年）。同时,重建序列与采样地周边区域旱涝指数以及天目山的相对湿度重建序列在年代际尺度上高度相关,说明过去165年间中国东南亚热带较大区域范围内的干湿变化在年代际尺度上较为同步。空间分析结果表明重建序列也能够在一定程度上指示研究区及周边较大区域范围内的土壤湿度变化。综上,利用树轮宽度指标重建的大别山的相对湿度变化为研究亚热带地区干湿演化历史提供了参考依据,完善了时间尺度上亚热带地区相对湿度数据,同时也证实了亚热带1990年以后干旱化趋势的出现。     

集中荷载下高强箍筋混凝土梁的抗剪性能

通过8根集中荷载下高强箍筋混凝土梁的受剪破坏试验，分析了500MPa箍筋混凝土构件斜截面的剪切承载力及使用阶段的斜裂缝宽度，同时对两组配有蒙皮钢筋的混凝土梁的受剪承载力及斜裂缝宽度进行了对比分析。试验结果表明，此类构件的受力性能与普通钢筋混凝土受剪构件相同，其斜截面受剪承载力仍可按现行《混凝土结构设计规范》有关公式进行计算，并且具有足够的安全储备。同时蒙皮钢筋的配置能够有效地限制裂缝的开展，改善受剪破坏的脆性性能。     

Assessment of risks posed by chemical industries—application of a new computer automated tool -III

The paper describes the application of a new computer automated tool, developed by us, in the risk analysis of a typical chemical industry engaged in the manufacture of linear alkyl benzene. Using the tool—a comprehensive software package -III (MAXimum CREDible accident analysis)—nine different scenarios, one for each storage unit, have been studied. It is observed that the accident scenario for chlorine (instantaneous release followed by dispersion) leads to the largest area-under-lethal-impact, while the accident scenario for propylene (CVCE followed by fireball) forecasts the most intense damage per unit area. The accidents involving propylene, benzene, and fuel oil have a high possibility of causing domino/secondary accidents as their destructive impacts (shock waves, heat load) would envelope other storage and process units.Besides demonstrating the utilizability of -III, this study also focuses attention on the need to bestow greater effort towards risk assessment/crisis management. The authors hope that the study will highlight the severity of the risk posed by the industry and thus generate safety consciousness among plant managers. The study may also help in developing accident-prevention strategies and the installation of damage control devices.