Distributional dynamic and trend evolution of China’s agricultural carbon emissions – an analysis on panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2011

Researching the dynamic distribution characteristics and trend evolution of agricultural carbon emissions is of considerable significance in formulating an effective agricultural carbon reduction policy. Based on measurement of agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces over the period 2002–2011, the study observed regional differences and the dynamic evolution of distribution of agricultural carbon emissions using agricultural carbon intensity as the indicator, accompanied by Gini coefficients and the kernel density estimation method. The results demonstrate first that agricultural carbon emissions for China show an obvious nonequilibrium nature in regard to spatial distribution. According to the differences in agricultural carbon emissions dynamic trends, we divided the 31 regions into four types – continuous decline, fluctuating decline, continuous increase, and fluctuating increase. Further, agricultural carbon emissions intensity showed a downward trend with significant differences in the research areas. Second, the gap in spatial distribution of national agricultural carbon emissions is gradually expanding based on the results calculated by Gini coefficient. From the perception of regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions, the eastern region showed an average level, the gap was more obvious in the central region, while western region showed a trend of fluctuating downward. Third, according to estimation by kernel density, the regional disparity in agricultural carbon emissions had a downward, but limited, trend. In regard to agricultural carbon emissions over the three areas, the regional gap not only tended to decrease but also showed a “four way” differentiation phenomenon in the eastern region. The difference in the central region difference was narrower. On the whole, the gap for the western region reduced steadily over a small range.     

Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.     

Global Major Progress and Trends in the Implementation of Agenda 21

This paper summarizes, from a global perspective, the major progress in the implementation of the Agenda 21 since the UN Conference on Environment and Development. The results show that global economy has achieved a substantial growth, and positive progress has been made in poverty eradication, urbanization, and conservation and intensive use of natural resources. However, relevant international conventions and commitments have not yet been completely fulfilled. The paper further analyzes the current major challenges and future trends of global sustainable development. It is argued that there are three major challenges:1) fatal global environmental issues posing an increasing threat to human survival; 2) more and more severe global competition for developing spaces; and 3) issues highlighting global people’s livelihood. There are four trends of global sustainable development:1) sustainable development will further turn from concept into global action; 2) green will be the main trend of global development; 3) emerging developing countries will become the main driving force of global sustainable development; and 4) international relations in the field of sustainable development will turn to competitive co-operation.     

Decabromodiphenylether and hexabromocyclododecane in wild birds from the United Kingdom, Sweden and The Netherlands: Screening and time trends

The brominated flame retardant decabromodiphenylether (DBDE) was analysed in wild birds to identify the most suitable species for monitoring time trends in DBDE contamination. This information was later used for the design of a 10-year trend study on DBDE in the European Union. DBDE was measured in muscle tissue, liver, and eggs from 10 terrestrial and four aquatic bird species. DBDE was detected in 47% of the terrestrial bird samples (nine species) and in 9% of the aquatic bird samples (six species). Peregrine falcon and sparrowhawk specimens were selected as most suitable species to determine temporal trends of DBDE. For sparrowhawks, no significant change in DBDE concentrations between 1973 and 2001 was found, although in later years more DBDE concentrations were above the detection limit. Peak DBDE levels measured in peregrines in 1995, were followed by a decline in concentrations until 2001. The same species were used for a trend study on hexabromocylcododecane (HBCD). Twenty-four percent of peregrine falcon eggs and 12% of sparrowhawk muscle samples demonstrated measurable HBCD residues. Three diastereomers of HBCD were analysed and the α-diastereomer was the predominant one in most samples. No clear time trends were observed for HBCD in either species. This study demonstrated that these DBDE and HBCD are bioavailable to birds of Northern Europe, although bioaccumulation seems to occur to a limited extent.     

四川省城市环境空气质量及变化趋势

本文根据2000～2009年四川省24个地级城市例行空气监测数据,按照《环境空气质量标准》(GB3095-1996)中的二级标准,采用综合污染指数法分析了四川省近10年环境空气质量的现状、变化趋势及影响因素。结果表明:从年际变化看,可吸入颗粒物浓度呈下降趋势,二氧化硫、二氧化氮浓度变化较平稳;年内变化显示,各污染物浓度季节变化明显,冬季污染最严重,污染程度由高到低的顺序为冬季、春季、秋季、夏季。全省综合污染指数呈下降趋势,空气污染程度得到了明显缓解,空气质量逐渐变好。     

汶川地震对四川及周边省区旅游业的影响

依据本底趋势线理论和1997-2008年统计数据,从更高的时空分辨率上,完成了汶川地震对四川及其周边省区旅游业影响的分析,结果显示:①2008年5-12月地震共使四川入境旅游损失112.1万人,国内旅游损失4 410.7万人,损失率分别为61.4%和22.4%;②四川北部主要旅游景点旅游业损失惨重,各景点游客损失率均达到了67.0%以上,其中,九寨沟、都江堰游客损失量较大,分别为212.2万人和194.7万人;③四川周边省区入境旅游遭受了不同程度的冲击,其中,湖北、甘肃损失量最大,分别为35.1万人和26.9万人;各省区受地震影响时间存在较大差异,地震影响期以甘肃最长,其影响期将超过8个月;④2008年汶川地震对四川及其周边省区旅游业的影响,其游客损失量与客流量基数(本底值)成正比;游客损失率与2008年本底值(基数)成反比;损失量和损失率两者均与汶川地震烈度分布存在一定的正比关系,以汶川为中心大致成同心圆状分布。     

长株潭城市群核心区大气环境承载力初探

对长株潭城市群核心区大气环境质量现状进行了分析,评价了长株潭城市群核心区大气环境承载力,分析了长株潭核心区大气环境承载力发展趋势,提出了提高长株潭核心区大气环境承载力利用水平的建议。     

Evaluation of the Trend of Air Quality in Taipei, Taiwan from 1994 to 2003

The data collected from the five air quality monitoring stations established by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA) in Taipei City were analyzed to assess the changes in air quality. The analyses reveal that the air quality in Taipei City improved over the last decade from 1994 to 2003, as evidenced by the significant downward trends of the various primary air pollutant concentrations, such as CO, NO_X, SO₂, and PM₁₀. An air pollution fee was collected by TEPA in 1995, and several air pollution control measures were likewise taken to improve the air quality in Taiwan. However, although the extreme daily maximum O₃ concentrations occurred more frequently in earlier years and showed a downward trend, its moderately high concentrations increased annually in recent years. It implied that after the reduction of various primary pollutant concentrations, the effective reduction of O₃ pollution still remains an important issue.     

我国大陆未来几年的地震形势与灾害分析

依据中国大陆的地震活动必将受到全球地震活动的制约,要分析中国大陆未来的地震趋势必须研究全球的地震活动的思路,通过对全球地震活动趋势以及近期大陆和周边地震活动的概况分析,认为大陆第五活跃期已基本结束,但并不意味着地震灾害水平随之降低,防震羊城灾任务依然严峻。