我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

极性基湿润剂与矿岩类粉尘颗粒的作用机理

根据矿岩类粉尘微颗粒的表面性质和极性基湿润剂的特性，应用分子热力学和表面物理化学理论探讨了湿润型抑尘剂与矿岩类粉尘之间的相互作用机理。矿岩类粉尘吸附水的本质是由于它们之间的相互吸引作用，是分子之间的短程相互作用力和长程作用力共同作用的结果。当矿岩类粉尘与水相碰撞时，只有当吸引力大于排斥力时，水分子才能牯附于矿岩类粉尘，表面张力和体系自由能足够小时，水才能湿润矿岩类粉尘。分析了湿润剂对水和矿岩类粉尘的表面改性的原理，它增加水和矿岩类粉尘之间的相互作用力，减小了界面表面张力和体系自由能，使矿岩粉尘被水湿润能自由地进行。     

地球系统科学提出前我国科学界的某些思维

列举了在1988年美国提出"地球系统科学"前我国学者在该领域的某些思维:人与天地相应的观点,东亚大陆磁异常与我国人群健康关系的观点,天地生三位一体的观点,地球表层学的观点以及灾害系统的观点等.这些观点虽不如"地球系统科学"着眼于全球整体,但也包括了很大的系统,且不空洞.     

MODELING THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFUSE NITROGEN SOURCES AND SINKS IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN OF NORTH CAROLINA,USA1

This study quantified nonpoint source nitrogen (NPS‐N) sources and sinks across the 14,582 km² Neuse River Basin (NRB) located in North Carolina, to provide tabular data summaries and graphic overlay products to support the development of management approaches to best achieve established N reduction goals. First, a remote sensor derived, land cover classification was performed to support modeling needs. Modeling efforts included the development of a mass balance model to quantify potential N sources and sinks, followed by a precipitation event driven hydrologic model to effectively transport excess N across the landscape to individual stream reaches to support subsequent labeling of transported N values corresponding to source origin. Results indicated that agricultural land contributed 55 percent of the total annual NPS‐N loadings, followed by forested land at 23 percent (background), and urban areas at 21 percent. Average annual N source contributions were quantified for agricultural (1.4 kg/ha), urban (1.2 kg/ha), and forested cover types (0.5 kg/ha). Nonpoint source‐N contributions were greatest during the winter (40 percent), followed by spring (32 percent), summer (28 percent), and fall (0.3 percent). Seasonal total N loadings shifted from urban dominated and forest dominated sources during the winter, to agricultural sources in the spring and summer. A quantitative assessment of the significant NRB land use activities indicated that high (greater than 70 percent impervious) and medium (greater than 35 percent impervious) density urban development were the greatest contributors of NPS‐N on a unit area basis (1.9 and 1.6 kg/ha/yr, respectively), followed by row crops and pasture/hay cover types (1.4 kg/ha/yr).     

BASE FLOW RECESSION RATES,LOW FLOWS,AND HYDROLOGIC FEATURES OF SMALL WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA,USA1

This paper examines the relationships between measurable watershed hydrologic features, base flow recession rates, and the Q_7,10 low flow statistic (the annual minimum seven‐day average streamflow occurring once every 10 years on average). Base flow recession constants were determined by analyzing hydrograph recession data from 24 small (>130 km²), unregulated watersheds across five major physiographic provinces of Pennsylvania, providing a highly variable dataset. Geomorphic, hydrogeologic, and land use parameters were determined for each watershed. The base flow recession constant was found to be most strongly correlated to drainage density, geologic index, and ruggedness number (watershed slope); however, these three parameters are intercorrelated. Multiple regression models were developed for predicting the recession rate, and it was found that only two parameters, drainage density and hydrologic soil group, were required to obtain good estimates of the recession constant. Equations were also developed to relate the recession rates to Q_7,10 per unit area, and to the Q_7,10/Q₅₀ ratio. Using these equations, estimates of base flow recession rates, Q_7,10, and streamflow reduction under drought conditions can be made for small, ungaged basins across a wide range of physiography.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

中国城市热岛时空特征及其影响因子的分析

全球气候变暖背景下,城市热岛效应会加重城市地区的热胁迫,对人类健康和生存发展提出严峻挑战.近年来我国雾-霾污染情况严重,但雾-霾对城市热岛影响的认识仍较匮乏.本研究基于MODIS遥感卫星地表温度数据,明确了我国2003~2013年白天、夜间以及四季城市热岛的空间变化,并从生物物理学和生物化学角度定量分析其控制机制.结果表明,影响我国白天城市热岛强度的主要因素为人口、农田灌溉和植被活动.纬度、降水量、反照率以及气溶胶浓度是夜间城市热岛强度的主控因子.从对比城乡粗糙度、反照率等生物物理学属性的角度,揭示了乡村背景环境对城市热岛分析的重要影响.结果表明,雾-霾治理可以缓解我国夜间城市热岛现象和热胁迫,有利于缓解区域甚至全球气候变化.     

福建省重点城市路面尘负荷及化学组成研究

采集并分析了福建省重点城市厦门、漳州、泉州和莆田城区具有代表性的57个地面扬尘和16个土壤样品的26种无机元素、8种水溶性离子和碳成分等组成.不同城市粒径≤100μm的路面尘负荷平均值在6.99 g.m-2与10.11 g.m-2之间,而粒径≤2.5μm的路面尘(PM2.5)负荷平均值在4.0 mg.m-2和12.5 mg.m-2之间.不同城市土壤尘和路面尘PM2.5中浓度最高的元素都是Si、Ca、Al、Fe和K,路面尘中Ca元素明显富集,而主要人为来源的重金属元素如Cu、Pb、Zn、Cr在路面尘PM2.5中的浓度显著高于土壤尘.漳州城区路面尘PM2.5中二次离子NH4+、NO3-和SO24-的含量明显高于其它地区,厦门、漳州和泉州城区路面尘PM2.5中Mg2+和Ca2+之间都存在显著的正相关关系.四城市路面尘中有机碳(OC)的含量均高于济南、石家庄以及北京地面扬尘OC的含量,元素碳(EC)的含量均低于北京地区路面扬尘EC的含量.泉州和莆田两地OC和EC的相关性较好,说明路面尘中OC和EC有相同或相似的来源.质量平衡结果显示泉州和莆田路面尘PM2.5中含量最高的是土壤尘,其次为有机物.按化学组成特征对路面尘PM2.5进行聚类解析,得到受大气沉降影响、受土壤尘影响、受大气沉降和土壤尘共同作用以及受土壤尘和建筑尘共同作用4类样品.     

桑沟湾表层沉积物性质及对磷的吸附特征

通过研究桑沟湾表层沉积物对磷的吸附动力学曲线和吸附等温线,并结合沉积物的表面电荷性质及磷的形态分析,考察了沉积物对磷的吸附性能和吸附机制.结果表明,桑沟湾表层沉积物对磷的吸附过程包括快吸附过程和慢吸附过程,可用快慢二段一级动力学方程描述,等温线符合Langmuir交叉式模型.夏季沉积物样品的最大吸附量高于春季样品,粒级较小的沉积物吸附能力较强.沉积物样品对磷的最大吸附量Qm在0.047 1~0.123 0 mg·g-1之间,吸附/解吸平衡磷浓度(EPC0)范围在0.059 6~0.192 7 mg·L-1,沉积物充当"磷源"的作用.不同站位表层沉积物中无机磷(IP)是磷在沉积物中的主要赋存形态,吸附后的沉积物样品中弱吸附态磷(Ex-P)、铁结合态磷(Fe-P)明显增加.吸附过程包括物理吸附和化学吸附,以物理吸附为主.     

常规施肥条件下农田不同途径氮素损失的原位研究:以长江中下游地区夏玉米季为例

为了解农田常规施肥条件下的不同途径氮素损失特征,本文通过田间原位试验同步研究了长江中下游地区夏玉米生长季氮肥施用后的农田N2O排放、NH3挥发、氮渗漏和地表径流的变化.结果表明,在复合肥为基肥,尿素为追肥,基追肥氮素水平均为150 kg·hm-2的条件下,整个玉米生长季N2O排放系数为3.3%,NH3挥发损失率为10.2%,氮渗漏和地表径流损失率分别为11.2%和5.1%.此外,基肥施用以氮素渗漏损失为主,而追肥氮素损失以氨挥发和渗漏为主,表明不同途径化肥氮素损失主要受氮肥品种影响,玉米季追肥可改用低氨挥发氮肥品种以减少氮素损失.