Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis

The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis.     

吉林省“十二五”环保政策措施研究

十二五期间,吉林省将处在经济高速发展时期,完善环境保护政策措施,是有效实施十二五环保规划的关键。通过全省环境保护政策措施的回顾,科学预测新时期环境保护工作形势,研究全省十二五时期环境保护法规体系、协调机制、经济政策、环保投入、科技创新等方面的对策措施。     

DROUGHT INDICATED IN CARBON-13/CARBON-12 RATIOS OF SOUTHWESTERN TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: Stomatal closure during periods of moisture deficiency should theoretically lead to elevated ¹³C/¹²C ratios as reduction of available CO₂ leads to diminished photosynthetic discrimination against ¹³C in favor of ¹²C. Stable-carbon isotope ratio chronologies developed from 5-yr tree-ring groups at 17 sites in six southwestern states were tested for a drought relationship by first fitting a spline curve to each chronology to remove the long-term trend and calculating indices as the ratio of actual to spline curve value. The time series of “Del Indices” so developed are significantly correlated with 5-yr mean Palmer Hydrological Drought Indices (post-1930 period) and reconstructed July Palmer Drought Severity Indices from respective areas. Overall, in the period since 1790, the driest pentads were 1900–04 and 1960–64, whereas the wettest were 1980–84 and 1915–19. Maps of drought represented for two pentads seem to be reasonable representations, although spatial correlations of Del Indices with PHDI were generally not significant. These Del Index drought reconstructions may provide a useful measure of past physiological response to drought (stomatal closure), although the present cost of analysis would prevent this from being a routine method.     

Trisomy 15 mosaicism owing to familial reciprocal translocation t(1;15): implication for prenatal diagnosis

We describe a 4-year-old female child with severe global mental retardation, myoclonic epilepsy, proximal hypotonia and dysmorphisms, whose prenatal diagnosis following amniocentesis revealed a constitutional female karyotype carrying a t(1;15)(q10;p11) familial reciprocal translocation. Post-natal high-resolution karyotype, Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) screening for subtelomeric rearrangements, VNTR search for UPD15 in the blood and fibroblast, and WCP1 and 15 in the mother, failed to provide an explanation for the complex clinical phenotype of the proband. Since the pachytene configuration of the translocated chromosomes defines a high probability of 3:1 segregation, an extensive workup was undertaken to look for a possibly cryptic mosaicism. Four percent of the cells with trisomy 15 was found in the peripheral blood lymphocytes examined by classical cytogenetic technique and interphase FISH analysis. The clinical features associated with cryptic trisomy 15 mosaicism and the problems concerning prenatal diagnosis and genetic counselling for carriers of translocations at high risk of 3:1 segregation are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.