改善太仓城区水环境原型调水实验研究及模型建立

为达到改善太仓城区水环境的目的,于2004年4月21日进行了调水实验.调水历时14 h,期间向城区调水21.8万m3.通过对监测点采样,得到水量、水质实测数据.根据实验数据,建立了符合太仓河网的水量水质数学模型,分析了从长江引水对太仓城区水环境的改善程度.同时对不同引水方案情况下城区水环境改善效果,以及截污和清淤对水环境的影响做了分析.研究表明,引水只能短期改善水环境;要根治水环境,必须从源头抓起,进行截污.     

基于CFD方法的土工离心机数值建模

目的 研究湍流模型和旋转域划分对土工离心机数值计算的影响,以建立适用于土工离心机计算的数值模型。方法 针对一款有实测风阻功率的土工离心机模型,分别采用SRF和MRF方法进行建模,选用标准k-ε、RNG k-ε和SST k-Omega湍流模型,对不同转速下土工离心机室内流场进行数值模拟,对比计算所得风阻功率、流场及温度场分布。结果 标准k-ε模型和SST k-Omega模型对湍流黏度的过度预测会导致计算所得土工离心机风阻功率偏大。中低转速下,旋转域的划分对计算结果的影响较小,但采用SRF方法计算所得的风阻功率与实验值更接近。结论 通过对比实验结果,为土工离心机计算建立了较为可靠的数值模型,并通过对比流场分布分析了因湍流模型选择引起计算误差的原因,为土工离心机数值模拟提供了思路。     

山区盆地大气湍流特征与污染扩散的数值试验

运用三维非表在气动力学数值模式，模拟了稳定、中性和不稳定３种层结下山区盆地的大气湍流和污染扩散特区通过模拟认为，在山区复杂地形条件下，由风切变引起的机械湍流是湍流动运动的主要形式之一，它主受风速的影响，同时，在非中性层结下，热力湍也是充运动的主要形式之一，由于地形复杂和层荮变化，使得污染扩散与平原地区有较大差异，在稳定层结条件下可以产生高浓度的污染。     

城市复杂环境下涡度相关通量观测的适用性分析

利用涡度相关技术,于2008—2009年对北京325 m铁塔47 m、140 m和280 m高度处CO2和能量通量进行了观测.研究了涡度相关技术应用于城市环境通量长期观测中的理论问题和方法适用性.结果表明,平面拟合方法受地面建筑物的影响明显,不同的坐标旋转方法所计算CO2通量差异在15%以内,这种差异随着观测高度的增加而减小.稳态检验表明,城市环境下低质量的数据分布没有明显的日变化趋势.CO2通量在各自通量贡献区内明显受到平流输送的影响,47~140 m之间的平流约占140 m日累计CO2通量的33%.白天对流混合,污染物浓度梯度很小,垂直平流不大,水平平流占据了平流输送的绝大多数,夜间水平平流和垂直平流则具有相同量级.     

Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants(POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane(DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs)were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models(GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ～100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus(TP) concentrations and regional GDP(anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.     

室内空气污染预测方法的实证研究

在大型(30m3)、小型(1m3)环境箱实验获得数据的基础上构建释放模型,并将模拟结果和现场监测得到的浓度水平进行对比,对开发的室内空气污染预测方法进行了实证研究.以一新装修房间为例,分别利用大型和小型环境箱实验,研究了复杂整装材料和简单层状材料的释放规律,建立了相应材料的污染物释放模型;依据单元内物质守恒理论和污染物充分混合的假设将释放模型组合,建立了室内空气污染预测方法,并预测了该房间甲醛和TVOC(total volatile organic compounds)浓度的变化过程.在考虑了0.03ACH(air change per hour)的换气率之后,模型预测与现场监测的污染物浓度变化趋势基本吻合,甲醛和TVOC污染预测误差(正则化标准差)分别为2.8%和1.6%.模型分析表明,各污染源对于甲醛污染的贡献,家具＞涂料＞地板;对于TVOC污染的贡献,涂料＞地板＞家具.结论表明,该预测方法可以真实反映现场污染物浓度变化趋势,可以用来分析各污染源对于整体污染的贡献、指导装修材料的选择和作为室内污染评估和控制的有效工具.     

Integrating intraseasonal grassland dynamics in cross-scale distribution modeling to support waterbird recovery plans

Despite much discussion about the utility of remote sensing for effective conservation, the inclusion of these technologies in species recovery plans remains largely anecdotal. We developed a modeling approach for the integration of local, spatially measured ecosystem functional dynamics into a species distribution modeling (SDM) framework in which other ecologically relevant factors are modeled separately at broad scales. To illustrate the approach, we incorporated intraseasonal water-vegetation dynamics into a cross-scale SDM for the Common Snipe (Gallinago gallinago), which is highly dependent on water and vegetation dynamics. The Common Snipe is an Iberian grassland waterbird characteristic of European agricultural meadows and a member of one of the most threatened bird guilds. The intraseasonal dynamics of water content of vegetation were measured using the standard deviation of the normalized difference water index time series computed from bimonthly images of the Sentinel-2 satellite. The recovery plan for the Common Snipe in Galicia (northwestern Iberian Peninsula) provided an opportunity to apply our modeling framework. Model accuracy in predicting the species’ distribution at a regional scale (resulting from integration of downscaled climate projections with regional habitat–topographic suitability models) was very high (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.981 and Boyce's index of 0.971). Local water-vegetation dynamic models, based exclusively on Sentinel-2 imagery, were good predictors (AUC of 0.849 and Boyce's index of 0.976). The predictive power improved (AUC of 0.92 and Boyce's index of 0.98) when local model predictions were restricted to areas identified by the continental and regional models as priorities for conservation. Our models also performed well (AUC of 0.90 and Boyce's index of 0.93) when projected to updated water-vegetation conditions. Our modeling framework enabled incorporation of key ecosystem processes closely related to water and carbon cycles while accounting for other factors ecologically relevant to endangered grassland waterbirds across different scales, allowed identification of priority areas for conservation, and provided an opportunity for cost-effective recovery planning by monitoring management effectiveness from space.     

Structurally-consistent estimation of use and nonuse values for landscape-wide environmental change

We address the problem of estimating the use and nonuse value derived from a landscape-wide programme of environmental change. Working in the random utility framework, we develop a structural model that describes both demand for recreational trips to the landscape's quality-differentiated natural areas and preferences over different landscape-wide patterns of environmental quality elicited in a choice experiment. The structural coherence of the model ensures that the parameters of the preference function can be simultaneously estimated from the combination of revealed and stated preference data. We explore the properties of the model in a Monte Carlo experiment and then apply it to a study of preferences for changes in the ecological quality of rivers in northern England. This implementation reveals plausible estimates of the use and nonuse parameters of the model and provides insights into the distance decay in those two different forms of value.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

Using chemical models for evaluating the geochemical confinement capacity of a geological barrier application to the Centre de Stockage de l'Aube (France)

The feasibility of using a chemical reaction-based approach for evaluating and modelling the role of adsorption reactions in determining the geochernical confinement capacity of natural geological barriers is being studied as part of an on-going R & D programme. The confined superficial aquifer underlying the Centre de Stockage de l'Aube facility, a geological barrier for this site, has been used as a case study with the following aims. First, development of a site characterisation protocol and demonstration of its use to determine the principal geochemical characteristics of aquifer materials using batch experiments and to represent the information obtained in terms of a chemical model. The experimental results obtained for Ni²⁺ partitioning as a function of total Ni, pH, total Ca and total solid can be satisfactorily represented in terms of reactions with an ion exchange site and a single amphoteric surface hydroxyl site with ferrihydrite reaction constants. A second objective is the incorporation of the reactions in a coupled geochemistry/transport code, and to verify the applicability of the coupled code predictions for Ni²⁺ mass transfer by comparison with the results obtained during column tracer experiments. The breakthrough curve and equilibrium solid phase Ni loading, predicted by a one-dimensional coupled model for a column tracer experiment, agree closely with observed data.Additional studies are underway to reduce model conditionality, to extend the adsorption model to other analogue cations and anions, to incorporate the effect of natural organic matter and to take into consideration precipitation/dissolution of amorphous Fe surface phases.